2023 Global Model Runs Discussion (Out thru day 16)

[chris_fit]

0z EPS less clustered compared to 12z, but further west.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCVC.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCVC.gif

That is a REALLLLLLY strong signal form the EPS - What is that like 80%+ of members develop it? With like 50%+ hurricanes?

[Iceresistance]

0z EPS less clustered compared to 12z, but further west.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCVC.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCVC.gif

That is a REALLLLLLY strong signal form the EPS - What is that like 80%+ of members develop it? With like 50%+ hurricanes?

I didn't realize that until now, there are around 30% that are lower than 950 mb, the signal is unusually strong.

I really hope that this is NOT a repeat of Irma 2017

[chris_fit]

Looks like 80-90% of TD Forming within the next week.

[SFLcane]

0z EPS less clustered compared to 12z, but further west.

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCVC.gif
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCVC.gif

That is a REALLLLLLY strong signal form the EPS - What is that like 80%+ of members develop it? With like 50%+ hurricanes?

I didn't realize that until now, there are around 30% that are lower than 950 mb, the signal is unusually strong.

I really hope that this is NOT a repeat of Irma 2017

Irma? Highly douptful trackwise but we should get a solid long track recurve soon.

[aspen]

12z ICON gets a hurricane out of the wave the Euro likes. Seems like the 12z GFS is picking up on it a bit too.

[MarioProtVI]

12z ICON gets a hurricane out of the wave the Euro likes. Seems like the 12z GFS is picking up on it a bit too.

That’s the wave behind it. It still kills it soon after emerging.

[IsabelaWeather]

whatever forms looks to recurve safely out to sea.....

These kind of posts aggravate me, there are a lot of people who could get affected by this next wave over Africa, and some models show a powerful storm nearing the NE caribbean.

I understand what you mean, but just because it may miss the US does not mean it will recurve "safely" out to sea.

[Iceresistance]

12z ICON gets a hurricane out of the wave the Euro likes. Seems like the 12z GFS is picking up on it a bit too.

That’s the wave behind it. It still kills it soon after emerging.

WDYM?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCGX.png

[LAF92]

12z ICON gets a hurricane out of the wave the Euro likes. Seems like the 12z GFS is picking up on it a bit too.

That’s the wave behind it. It still kills it soon after emerging.

WDYM?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCGX.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SgCGX.png

That first TW approaches the Islands at 210 hours as a TS

[Meteorcane]

GFS much weaker than EC/CMC/ICON, and thus is much further south with the system (basically a tropical wave until it enters the Caribbean). 12Z GEFS also looking more robust. Given this support, and relatively good conditions in that part of the basin, think this wave has good chances of development, however in terms of threatening any landmasses, the speed of its development probably will be important (i.e. quicker development, safer recurve, slower development, some threat to the Caribbean).

[Teban54]

Why is the GFS so bad in forecasting genesis this year? For at least 4 systems - Franklin, Harold, Idalia and now the wave near African coast, the GFS was the last in showing genesis among all global models (ECMWF, CMC and even ICON), often after days of showing nothing when other models are on board.

Also, is it just me, or has GFS become the leftmost outlier while the Euro is the rightmost outlier this year? This was the most obvious in Idalia's landfall forecast, but is also playing out for the African wave and maybe Franklin (I don't remember). Literally the opposite of their usual biases.

[aspen]

CMC is back to Constantly Making Cyclones. 00z shows Hurricanes Lee, Margot, and Nigel coming out of the MDR by 10 days out. There has been potential for another MDR storm after what will likely become Lee, but all the global models have been inconsistent with it.

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1698002805913530812

[REDHurricane]

00z ECMWF (plus GFS and CMC) interestingly has the remnants of Franklin and Jose merging with an extratropical low currently centered near the southwest tip of Portugal and developing into a fully tropical (I think?) storm in the next 4-6 days or so:

[ChrisH-UK]

The 06z has a tropical cyclone starting off the african coast and ending in a interesting place. I doubt it will happen but with the warm seas something like this is looking enevertable in the future.

[canebeard]

It is a very very rare occurrence for a hurricane to make it to the USA, if it developed from a disturbance that came out of Africa after Sept. 4th. Hence, the current tropical wave 95L is likely the last chance for this year for a Cape Verde storm to make landfall. Except in Europe, of course.

[IcyTundra]

It is a very very rare occurrence for a hurricane to make it to the USA, if it developed from a disturbance that came out of Africa after Sept. 4th. Hence, the current tropical wave 95L is likely the last chance for this year for a Cape Verde storm to make landfall. Except in Europe, of course.

True about the CV long trackers that come off of Africa, but you can have waves that come off of Africa and develop west of 60 W longitude. Storms such as Matthew, Sandy, Rita, Eta, and Iota all originated from tropical waves that came off of Africa after September 4th.

[canebeard]

It is a very very rare occurrence for a hurricane to make it to the USA, if it developed from a disturbance that came out of Africa after Sept. 4th. Hence, the current tropical wave 95L is likely the last chance for this year for a Cape Verde storm to make landfall. Except in Europe, of course.

True about the CV long trackers that come off of Africa, but you can have waves that come off of Africa and develop west of 60 W longitude. Storms such as Matthew, Sandy, Rita, Eta, and Iota all originated from tropical waves that came off of Africa after September 4th.

Yea, I could have/should have qualified the statistical statement to say a well developed circulation after the 4th. (with the textbook (after the fact) moniker of a Cape Verde hurricane). Those waves are coming off every 15-20 degrees apart all season; often with little cloud signature.

[mantis83]

It is a very very rare occurrence for a hurricane to make it to the USA, if it developed from a disturbance that came out of Africa after Sept. 4th. Hence, the current tropical wave 95L is likely the last chance for this year for a Cape Verde storm to make landfall. Except in Europe, of course.

agreed. anything that makes US landfall the rest of this season will come from the west carribean heading toward the gulf coast in my opinon

[Ianswfl]

It is a very very rare occurrence for a hurricane to make it to the USA, if it developed from a disturbance that came out of Africa after Sept. 4th. Hence, the current tropical wave 95L is likely the last chance for this year for a Cape Verde storm to make landfall. Except in Europe, of course.

agreed. anything that makes US landfall the rest of this season will come from the west carribean heading toward the gulf coast in my opinon

Gfs ensembles suggest next fri something from the carribean hitting swfl or central fl. Fairly weak signals but something is there.