Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)

[Category5Kaiju]

12z ICON and CMC still show development into a long-tracking hurricane like in previous runs.

My best guess is that the GFS is struggling with the El Niño and favoring rising motion outside of the Atlantic when it’s been shown that the Atlantic is perfectly capable of producing storms.

What I'm especially interested to know is why it's so erratic. Literally two runs apart, we have a major hurricane in the SW Atlantic, and on the next run there's absolutely nothing.

[CyclonicFury]

GFS has been a disaster this season. First it failed to show the monsoon trough breakdown and showed nothing developing at all due to dry air. Then it failed to develop Idalia when every other model was developing it.

But on the flip side, there have been countless times where model support for MDR systems just quickly evaporated once the wave reached the Atlantic. Have to imagine that's less likely this time since it's peak season and environmental conditions appear very favorable.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone has a comparison of the 00z / 06z vs 12z? Would like to see if there is shear, dry air at 12z.

[cycloneye]

Already looks like this.

[SFLcane]

[chris_fit]

GFS ENS Trend

[SFLcane]

GFS ENS Trend

https://i.imgur.com/xLqnnbx.gif

Stop it...

[cycloneye]

2 PM no change on wording and %.

Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
A tropical wave is expected to move off the west coast of Africa
during the next day or so. Environmental conditions appear conducive
for some gradual development of this system during the early and
middle parts of next week, and a tropical depression could form
while it moves westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and
central portions of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

[mantis83]

GFS 12z running, here we go.

Full recurve out to sea?

there's nothing to recurve on the gfs lol

[underthwx]

Already looks like this.

https://i.imgur.com/qmm2ZZS.gif

Yeah CE....seems pretty obvious this system will develop by the looks of it. Is this an invest?

[SFLcane]

GFS 12z running, here we go.

Full recurve out to sea?

there's nothing to recurve on the gfs lol

gfs----->

[cycloneye]

Already looks like this.

https://i.imgur.com/qmm2ZZS.gif

Yeah CE....seems pretty obvious this system will develop by the looks of it. Is this an invest?

Not yet.

[Ianswfl]

GFS ENS Trend

https://i.imgur.com/xLqnnbx.gif

Ensembles keep shifting west

[SFLcane]

[chris_fit]

EURO Running - so far similar to 00z through 72hrs

[IcyTundra]

Euro stronger through 120 hrs.

[Teban54]

Euro stronger through 120 hrs.

And a little bit SW.

Edit: Stronger and a little bit SE at 168 hrs

[LarryWx]

12Z UKMET: still has TCG but unlike the prior run having TCG on Sunday, this waits til Wednesday (9/6). With the delay, it is notably weaker but is still in a potentially dangerous position at 168 (9/8) 300 miles E of the Leewards moving WNW at 15 mph:

NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS
FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 14.2N 44.1W

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 06.09.2023 120 14.2N 44.1W 1010 27
0000UTC 07.09.2023 132 14.1N 46.7W 1009 29
1200UTC 07.09.2023 144 14.9N 49.0W 1007 37
0000UTC 08.09.2023 156 15.4N 51.8W 1007 31
1200UTC 08.09.2023 168 16.1N 54.9W 1007 34

[SconnieCane]

Nearly six full pages on a wave that's not even an invest yet...this oughta be good.

Wasn't the last time this happened oh, almost exactly six years ago?

With Jose already forming, we're actually already ahead of that season on NS count and MH count (only Harvey had reached AOA 100kt by this date).

El who?

[chris_fit]