Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)
Moderator: S2k Moderators
Forum rules
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Tropical Wave in the Eastern Atlantic (Is Invest 95L)
Now that the two main models GFS and ECMWF develop this wave,it's time to have a thread for it so all the model runs can be posted here.
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697292158758433234
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697293615964500073
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697292158758433234
https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1697293615964500073
2 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- cycloneye
- Admin
- Posts: 139710
- Age: 67
- Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
- Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Eastern and Central Tropical Atlantic:
An area of low pressure could develop over the eastern tropical
Atlantic early next week in association with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system through the middle part of next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions
of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
An area of low pressure could develop over the eastern tropical
Atlantic early next week in association with a tropical wave.
Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of
this system through the middle part of next week while it moves
westward to west-northwestward over the eastern and central portions
of the tropical Atlantic.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
1 likes
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
- Meteorcane
- Category 2
- Posts: 541
- Joined: Thu Jul 21, 2011 6:49 am
- Location: North Platte Nebraska
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Looks like a pretty good setup for development (as Eric Webb detailed, better than I ever could), and this does have the potential to be a long track ACE generator. Best case scenario is it develops early like the CMC/ICON/EC deterministic solutions indicate as that should favor a relatively quick recurve. A slower development would likely keep it at a lower latitude, and make it more of a potential Carib threat late next week. Personally I think, given the favorable factors the, the deterministic GFS is a bit too bearish, but since the wave hasn't even emerged off Africa yet, I wouldn't take any scenarios off the table.
2 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
not sure which wave it is on the GFS but I'm assuming it's the larger one west of Cabo Verde on day 7, the wave east of it (1010mb) develops much later and goes towards the Eastern Caribbean
Last edited by AutoPenalti on Thu Aug 31, 2023 12:48 pm, edited 4 times in total.
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Iceresistance
- Category 5
- Posts: 8932
- Age: 20
- Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
- Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
SFLcane wrote:https://i.postimg.cc/4ys5LCQP/tc.png
It has 2 clusters, the one impacting the Northern Caribbean islands, and those moving away from any landfall potential.
0 likes
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Winter 2020-2021
All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.
Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.
Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information
Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
- galaxy401
- Category 5
- Posts: 2301
- Age: 29
- Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2012 9:04 pm
- Location: Casa Grande, Arizona
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Going to move into the Atlantic during peak season. Could see this being a long tracker.
1 likes
Got my eyes on moving right into Hurricane Alley: Florida.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: College Station, Tx
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
the 12z GFS says not so fast on a recurve, again lets wait until something actually develops before claiming its a fish storm and wont effect land, that is just not a good mindset to have, their are still islands that could be hit even if this system doesnt affect the US, so people can still be effected
4 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Trough over Bermuda. What could go wrong.
Will be an interesting couple of days in this thread.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Makes me wonder how much rainfall the Western region of Africa receives during the summer with these waves...
1 likes
- Category5Kaiju
- Category 5
- Posts: 3443
- Age: 22
- Joined: Thu Dec 24, 2020 12:45 pm
- Location: Seattle
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
One thing I will say about the potential path of this future system is that considering Idalia is not safely recurving on out to sea but rather looking like it wants to boomerang back and threaten New England, that might indicate some decent ridging in place, which could possibly have downstream effects on this upcoming system
0 likes
Unless explicitly stated, all information covered in my posts is based on my opinions and observations. Please refer to a professional meteorologist or an accredited weather research agency otherwise, especially if serious decisions must be made in the event of a potentially life-threatening tropical storm or hurricane.
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: College Station, Tx
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Cycloneye could you remove my post on the other thread? It wont allow me to remove it
0 likes
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
12z euro has Gert survives interaction with Franklin and Jose, and dragging this wave to the north
0 likes
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
upper low near bermuda should keep it away from a U.S. landfall, at this point.....
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: College Station, Tx
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
mantis83 not so fast their, the euro 12z had the upper level low backing away to the south and ridging following the system to its north, end of its run their is a bit more ridging and not really a big trough to come turn it out to sea
1 likes
-
- Category 5
- Posts: 3950
- Age: 27
- Joined: Mon Aug 17, 2015 4:16 pm
- Location: Ft. Lauderdale, Florida
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
mantis83 wrote:upper low near bermuda should keep it away from a U.S. landfall, at this point.....
No. It moves away.
1 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.
Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
- Hurricaneman
- Category 5
- Posts: 7285
- Age: 43
- Joined: Tue Aug 31, 2004 3:24 pm
- Location: central florida
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
The 12zGFS is in the Caribbean at day 10 while the Euro seems to be safely recurving west of Bermuda. May have to watch next week to see what may happen as this starts to go into the Atlantic
0 likes
-
- Category 2
- Posts: 647
- Joined: Fri Jul 21, 2023 10:59 pm
- Location: College Station, Tx
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Idalia will have a massive effect on the upper level steering pattern, if it stalls and hangs around longer off of new england, that will allow for this next system to safely recurve out to sea, however if idalia exits the picture faster, that will give more time for upper level ridging to build back in and potentially force this system towards the US
1 likes
- ScottNAtlanta
- Category 5
- Posts: 2016
- Joined: Sat May 25, 2013 3:11 pm
- Location: Atlanta, GA
Re: Tropical Wave in West Africa that may develop
Stratton23 wrote:the 12z GFS says not so fast on a recurve, again lets wait until something actually develops before claiming its a fish storm and wont effect land, that is just not a good mindset to have, their are still islands that could be hit even if this system doesnt affect the US, so people can still be effected
GFS has a bias for recurves, so if it isn't recurving...it will, only to correct back west
0 likes
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Who is online
Users browsing this forum: cheezyWXguy, Cpv17, Google Adsense [Bot], MetroMike, Stratton23, WAcyclone, WiscoWx02 and 42 guests