2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1696282634778001551?t=pC0bOot2UhwAIKPSdc87fA&s=19

Fascinating! Two majors in August on the same day barely qualified but looks like it did occur. Franklin's winds were downgraded to 110 mph at 5:00am but was still at Cat 3 (111 mph +) threshold at the 2:00am advisory early this Wednesday morning.

[weeniepatrol]

Moderate, strengthening to Strong El Nino.



On todays' date, 30 August, we stand at 10/3/2



Current ACE to date is 136% of average.

[weeniepatrol]

List of Strong+ El Nino years and seasonal major hurricane count:

1957 (2 majors)
1965 (1 major)
1972 (0 majors)
1982 (1 major)
1991 (2 majors)
1997 (1 major)
2009 (2 majors)
2015 (2 majors)

This means that it is only 30 August and we have already tied or exceeded the major hurricane count of literally ever other Strong+ El Nino year (since 1950) on record.

If we define peak season as 20 August to 20 October, we are only 16% of the way through peak and already accomplished this. Lol

[WalterWhite]

We are currently at 10/3/2.

We can get a realistic "minimum" for the rest of the season by analyzing storms that formed from August 31 onwards during the hurricane seasons from 2016 to 2022.

2016: 7/3/3
2017: 8/5/3
2018: 10/6/2
2019: 13/4/2
2020: 17/10/6
2021: 10/3/2
2022: 11/8/2

The minimum number of storms that formed from August 31 onwards during this timeframe was 7 (for 2016); for hurricanes, that number was 3 (for 2016 and 2021); for major hurricanes, that number was 2 (for 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022). This list includes both +ENSO and -ENSO years, as well as seasons with insane late-season activity (such as 2020) and little to no late-season activity (such as 2021). Based on this, we could realistically infer that the minimum season totals for this season would be 17/6/4. We could see a season with a higher storm count, hurricane count, and major hurricane count; but recent trends indicate that finishing below these numbers is likely.

[Category5Kaiju]

List of Strong+ El Nino years and seasonal major hurricane count:

1957 (2 majors)
1965 (1 major)
1972 (0 majors)
1982 (1 major)
1991 (2 majors)
1997 (1 major)
2009 (2 majors)
2015 (2 majors)

This means that it is only 30 August and we have already tied or exceeded the major hurricane count of literally ever other Strong+ El Nino year (since 1950) on record.

If we define peak season as 20 August to 20 October, we are only 16% of the way through peak and already accomplished this. Lol

Also worth noting that this season also saw a 926 mbar Category 4 hurricane, which is the most intense Atlantic storm in a moderate Nino since 1950 (Joaquin is the most powerful wind-speed wise). But who knows...September might surprise us even more as far as we could tell.

[HurakaYoshi]

List of Strong+ El Nino years and seasonal major hurricane count:

1957 (2 majors)
1965 (1 major)
1972 (0 majors)
1982 (1 major)
1991 (2 majors)
1997 (1 major)
2009 (2 majors)
2015 (2 majors)

This means that it is only 30 August and we have already tied or exceeded the major hurricane count of literally ever other Strong+ El Nino year (since 1950) on record.

If we define peak season as 20 August to 20 October, we are only 16% of the way through peak and already accomplished this. Lol

To add to that, the years with 2 majors had their second one in September, except Joaquin (formed in Sept) but became a major in October). Also, the season already had more ACE than half of them listed; it should end up higher than 2009 after Idalia and Franklin. Unless September is too inactive, I think NATL will finish with one more major and within near-normal ACE.

[captainbarbossa19]

CFS thinks that there won't be a lot of weaknesses out there.

[Hammy]

With Jose squeezing out one more name right before the month ends, we've had 6/2/2 over a mere 12 day span

[cycloneye]

It looks like a divided September.

 https://twitter.com/BenNollWeather/status/1697204907160506418

[Category5Kaiju]

Unlike last year, literally every depression seems to be able to find a way to turn into a named storm.

Just shows you how much more favorable the conditions are now compared to last year. Talk about the irony.

[WalterWhite]

The CFSv2 and CanSIPS are showing sinking air over Africa and the Indian Ocean over September.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1697122474104672693




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697183569196507502




It looks like things could remain busy for at least the first half of September with rising motion over Africa/Eatl and linger sinking over the Pacific. Hard to doubt it with the activity we've seen in the last 10 or so days along with peak climo.

[Iceresistance]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1697122474104672693

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697183569196507502

It looks like things could remain busy for at least the first half of September with rising motion over Africa/Eatl and linger sinking over the Pacific. Hard to doubt it with the activity we've seen in the last 10 or so days along with peak climo.

Also in an El Nino year, this is extremely unusual, and this may not be repeated for a LONG TIME!

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1697122474104672693

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697183569196507502

It looks like things could remain busy for at least the first half of September with rising motion over Africa/Eatl and linger sinking over the Pacific. Hard to doubt it with the activity we've seen in the last 10 or so days along with peak climo.

Also in an El Nino year, this is extremely unusual, and this may not be repeated for a LONG TIME!

Well we do know for sure that this year almost certainly will be used as a reminder that if you combine a strong +AMO/warm sst anomalies with a moderate El Nino, then you could still get a decently active season.

[WalterWhite]

Part of me thinks 2023 could actually be surprisingly active for a +ENSO year given the -PDO signature that is expected to remain. Above-average sea surface temperatures are expected to remain across the Subtropical North Pacific, indicating a negative PDO. This negative PDO will create sinking air over the Pacific, leading to rising air in the Atlantic, favoring activity in the Atlantic.

PDO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat
ENSO: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.el_nino.dat

Since 1995, the seasons with a positive ENSO but negative PDO during the peak (August to October) were 2002, 2004, 2006, 2009, 2012, 2018, and 2019; this averages to an ACE of 118 square hectoknots. For reference, since 1995, the seasons with both a positive ENSO and positive PDO during the peak were 1997, 2003, 2015, and 2015; this averages to an ACE of 87 square hectoknots, which is 31 square hectoknots lower than the +ENSO/-PDO average.

This was posted back in March, but I might have been onto something here.

[WalterWhite]

GEFS and ECENS ensembles and the operational GFS generally show:

- Invest 94L developing into Tropical Storm Katia around September 3

- Another tropical wave coming from West Africa developing into Tropical Storm Lee around September 6, which could become a hurricane

- A subsequent tropical wave coming from West Africa developing into Tropical Storm Margot around September 9

[WalterWhite]

This season is currently at 11/3/2/49.6 as of today, August 31. No storms have formed as of today.

We can get a realistic minimum total storm count, total hurricane count, total major hurricane count, and total ACE estimates for the 2023 Atlantic Hurricane Season. The following are the seasonal statistics for every hurricane season from 2016 to 2022 starting from August 31:

2016: 7/3/3/106.9
2017: 8/5/3/194.6
2018: 10/6/2/115.7
2019: 13/4/2/111.9
2020: 17/10/6/137.4
2021: 10/3/2/101.1
2022: 11/8/2/91.8

Currently, the minimum that could be realistically expected for the rest of the season is 7 more storms (in line with 2016), 3 more hurricanes (in line with 2016 and 2021), 2 more major hurricanes (in line with 2018, 2019, 2021, and 2022), and 91.8 square hectoknots more ACE (in line with 2022). This gives a seasonal total of 18 storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and 141.4 square hectoknots of ACE, which would put this season in the above-average category.

The average totals for the seven most recent seasons from August 31 and beyond are 11 more storms, 6 more hurricanes, 3 more major hurricanes, and 122.8 more square hectoknots of ACE. This gives a seasonal total of 22 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, and 172.4 square hectoknots of ACE, which would put this season in the hyperactive category.

Using only the +ENSO years (i.e. 2018 and 2019), the average post-August 30 season totals are 11 more storms, 5 more hurricanes, 2 more major hurricanes, and 113.8 more square hectoknots of ACE. This gives a seasonal total of 22 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, and 162.8 square hectoknots of ACE, which would put this season barely in the hyperactive category.

Minimum expected season totals: 18 storms, 6 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, 141.4 ACE (above-average)
Average expected season totals: 22 storms, 9 hurricanes, 5 major hurricanes, 172.4 ACE (hyperactive)
Average expected season totals (only considering +ENSO years): 22 storms, 8 hurricanes, 4 major hurricanes, 162.8 ACE (hyperactive)

There is a realistic chance this could be the first hyperactive +ENSO season since 2004.

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697327407231889765

[Emmett_Brown]

Moderate, strengthening to Strong El Nino.

https://i.imgur.com/hz3AqYh.png

On todays' date, 30 August, we stand at 10/3/2

https://i.imgur.com/fzKxu7p.png

Current ACE to date is 136% of average.

Amazingly, we are only 3 named storms behind the pace of 2020

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1697367923784896948