ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hurricane Mike]

3am Video Update for those awake
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=W7q3xRAKYXM

[Extratropical94]

Impressive dropsonde in the W eyewall:

Only 78kts at the surface, but 105kts at 150 feet, 114kts at 250 feet, and 130kts at ~700 feet

[Teban54]

Latest pass has extrap pressure 941.5mb. SE quad has FL 112 kt and NW quad has SFMR 99 kt.

Interestingly, looks like SW and SE quads have similar winds while NE quad is slightly weaker. Unless Idalia was trying to mix winds down during the recon.

[NDG]

Wow!!!! Incredible pressure drop in the last few hours, crazy!
I hope people never doubt the Hurricane models again!

[Sciencerocks]

[Extratropical94]

123kt FL, 116kt rain-contaminated SFMR (right inside the hot towers in the W eyewall), 105kt clean SFMR

[NDG]

Some of the strongest wind Gusts so far in the Tampa area:

St Pete close to 60 mph
Tampa close to 50 mph

[FireRat]

Wow!!!! Incredible pressure drop in the last few hours, crazy!
I hope people never doubt the Hurricane models again!

Yup! I gotta hand it to the experts and the models on this one! It was an excellent forecast to see Idalia do what it is doing now, blowing up into a major hurricane. They knew this could be a strong hurricane aiming for the big bend since before it was even named. Bravo! Hopefully people in the path did the smart thing and heeded the warnings! Also, best of luck to our storm chasers out there and may they be safe during this intense storm. Finally off to bed now, my monster energy drink buzz has waned, unlike Idalia's convection.

[NDG]

Idalia going for Cat 4!!!!

074200 2848N 08414W 6978 02696 //// +122 //// 012052 064 116 045 01
074230 2848N 08412W 6968 02683 9434 +160 //// 035028 042 114 039 01
074300 2848N 08410W 6982 02651 9414 +182 +178 122010 023 050 003 03
074330 2847N 08408W 6974 02651 9408 +178 //// 179031 036 032 002 01
074400 2846N 08407W 6964 02666 9412 +177 +169 180043 047 035 001 00
074430 2847N 08405W 6969 02664 9421 +176 +158 181056 062 057 008 00
074500 2847N 08403W 6973 02680 9451 +144 //// 182086 098 093 018 01
074530 2847N 08401W 6962 02735 9525 +140 //// 182117 122 105 009 01
074600 2847N 08359W 6979 02759 9568 +143 //// 184119 123 105 005 01
$$

[kevin]

940.8 mb extrapolated, 116 kt SFMR and 123 kt FL winds. Imo enough for an upgrade to a 115 kt cat 4.

Edit: just saw that the 116 kt SFMR is rain-contaminated. So 110 kt would also make sense.

[NDG]

940.8 mb extrapolated, 116 kt SFMR and 123 kt FL winds. Imo enough for an upgrade to a 115 kt cat 4.

Edit: just saw that the 116 kt SFMR is rain-contaminated. So 110 kt would also make sense.

Indeed more than enough with being such a tiny eyewall.

[Fancy1002]

Let’s all be glad that Idalia took so long to get her act together, or else we would easily be dealing with a borderline high cat 4 or low cat five right now.

[Extratropical94]

940.8 mb extrapolated, 116 kt SFMR and 123 kt FL winds. Imo enough for an upgrade to a 115 kt cat 4.

Edit: just saw that the 116 kt SFMR is rain-contaminated. So 110 kt would also make sense.

Agreed, 940/110 is what I would go with. However, considering they've been quite generous in estimating Idalia's wind speeds so far, I would not be surprised at all if they pulled the trigger and just called her a 4 at 5am

[Fancy1002]

Is the plane going to make another attempt through on its way back to base.

[NDG]

They only went with 125 mph, but still strengthening.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1696795872250691859

[Extratropical94]

Is the plane going to make another attempt through on its way back to base.

They have enough gas left in the tank to make a couple more passes.

[Beef Stew]

At this rate, I think 140 mph at landfall is reasonable. I think she’s going to run out of water before she can get stronger than that- but very reminiscent of Charley to me- coming in like a bullet…

[NDG]

~18 mb pressure drop in just 4 hours is very impressive!!!

[NDG]

Is the plane going to make another attempt through on its way back to base.

They have enough gas left in the tank to make a couple more passes.

But the plane just got there just a few hours ago?

[Sciencerocks]