2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[SFLcane]

Complete BS in my opinion. Make up some dates and if a storm happens, NAILED IT. That is not verification.

Call it what you want those maps were made in march. Guess they got lucky not once but two times now this season. Maybe they get lucky again In Sept.

That's like old school Farmers Almanac stuff right there lol. A gillion years ago growing up in the NE we couldn't wait to see when a blizzard was coming when tha Almanac came out. 7 months before

I get ya lol just pointing out the fact they have already gotten lucky 2 times this season. Currently highlighting the eastcoast in early sept and eps has some hurricanes moving into the bahamas around same time frame.

[SFLcane]

[jconsor]

It's quite rare to see a major US landfall in a moderate to strong El Nino. If Idalia makes landfall as a cat 3+, it would be very notable.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1695886444781277212

[jconsor]

This year has been remarkably more active than a typical El Nino.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1696203969452818836

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1696282634778001551

[weeniepatrol]

El Nino!!

[Category5Kaiju]

Another interesting thing is, recent years (with the exception of 2021) haven't really had more than one major hurricane by September 1 (yes, not even 2017 and 2020). With Franklin and what-Idalia-will-likely-become-in-the-next-several-days, who knew that a moderate El Nino year would be capable of doing just that?

[Category5Kaiju]

I would also like to add that we still have to get through September. It's very likely that somewhere in the basin, there will be at least one Cat 3 or stronger hurricane during that month (El Nino years historically and typically see their major hurricanes in September anyways). The idea that this season could end with 3-5 MHs may really not be something from an Alice-In-Wonderland fantasy after all.

[Steve]

I would also like to add that we still have to get through September. It's very likely that somewhere in the basin, there will be at least one Cat 3 or stronger hurricane during that month (El Nino years historically and typically see their major hurricanes in September anyways). The idea that this season could end with 3-5 MHs may really not be something from an Alice-In-Wonderland fantasy after all.

Yeah but to be fair I’m sure most people threw a bone to the season having 2-3 majors. Also to be fair I don’t think even a small percentage of the site’s voters would have said by August or simultaneous in August. So 2 or 3 more the rest of the way isn’t remotely far fetched.

[Hammy]

Amazing to look at this year compared to last, I'm sure if most of us were told one year would be at 9/2/1 with another hurricane (possibly major) on the way in the Gulf, and one was not even on the D storm by the end of August--with nothing forming for nearly two months--we'd all guess wrong as to which year was the El Nino one.

[NDG]

Idalia is a great example that even with a persistent -NAO pattern in the Atlantic Basin, the same troughiness pattern in the eastern US can pull a system north out of the western Caribbean into the US during the middle of the hurricane season.
An event many of us always warned about.

[Category5Kaiju]

Amazing to look at this year compared to last, I'm sure if most of us were told one year would be at 9/2/1 with another hurricane (possibly major) on the way in the Gulf, and one was not even on the D storm by the end of August--with nothing forming for nearly two months--we'd all guess wrong as to which year was the El Nino one.

At this point I think I'm reasonably comfortable to say that the abnormally warm Atlantic does indeed play a role in allowing the basin to overachieve compared to what would be expected with a moderate El Nino. It was understandable to be initially skeptical of this idea, considering many moderate Nino years in recent times were below average seasons, but clearly this year has several rather uncanny, pro-activity factors that aren't typical of El Nino years.

[Teban54]

With Idalia now upgraded to a major hurricane at 2am EDT, we now have two simultaneous major hurricanes in the western Atlantic.

Has this ever happened in August of an El Nino year before?

[IcyTundra]

With Idalia now upgraded to a major hurricane at 2am EDT, we now have two simultaneous major hurricanes in the western Atlantic.

Has this ever happened in August of an El Nino year before?

I believe the only other times that it has occurred are 1886 and 1893.

[hurricanes1234]

Atlantic really said "what El Niño?"

[weeniepatrol]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1696816407445680272

#Idalia is now a Category 4 #hurricane. #Franklin was formerly a Cat. 4. Only six other years on record have had two Atlantic Category 4 hurricanes by August 30th: 1933, 1958, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2010.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1696816407445680272

#Idalia is now a Category 4 #hurricane. #Franklin was formerly a Cat. 4. Only six other years on record have had two Atlantic Category 4 hurricanes by August 30th: 1933, 1958, 1999, 2004, 2005, 2010.

You might have seen this image/gif countless times on wx social media, so I'll finish the catchphrase for you.

El Nino is Spanish for....an inability to stop another dangerous major Gulf landfall and a high-end Category 4 hurricane near Bermuda, ultimately making the Atlantic perform in an above-average manner!

[Ntxw]

There's still about 1.5 to ~2 weeks left for favorable tropical forcing. After that sinking motion will likely return to the Africa-MC window in anticipation of Pacific forcing and sub-seasonal movement ends over the IO-MC. Not clear given the Nino low freq signal, but the next possible tropical forcing movement might be early or mid October.

[zzzh]

EPS has trended on a faster and weaker Pacific MJO, and has the rising motion in the Atlantic in late September.

[CyclonicFury]

The Atlantic has already produced more ACE than many full El Niño seasons before 2000: 1977, 1982, 1986, 1987, 1991, 1994 and 1997.

We should pass 2009 shortly as well. It's hard not to say the record +AMO isn't having any effect when ACE is nearing the top 10 through this date. If September produces at least average ACE, a below average season will pretty much be impossible.