ATL: IDALIA - Models

[NDG]

18z Hurricane models will be interesting.

[gatorcane]

HAFS models out through 60 hours look to be stronger and have shifted a bit more west. HAFS-A below:

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF considerably further East south of Cuba at 24 hours.


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[NDG]

HAFS-B 12z run back to a Cat 4 at landfall.

[NDG]

So far the 12z HWRF track is very similar to its earlier 06z run, just a difference in timing.

[SouthFLTropics]

So far the 12z HWRF track is very similar to its earlier 06z run, just a difference in timing.

Agreed… it appears to be back on track with the 06z, whereas due to the timing at the 24 hour mark it looked like it was well east of the 06z.


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[gatorcane]

12Z NAVGEM shifts way east with landfall around Punta Gorda, not too strong though:

[LandoWill]

https://i.imgur.com/CRFO63p.png

gfs has been consistently west this entire time. So maybe it's more right than wrong. Hopefully for our case here in pasco county they are correct.

[jfk08c]

https://i.imgur.com/CRFO63p.png

gfs has been consistently west this entire time. So maybe it's more right than wrong. Hopefully for our case here in pasco county they are correct.

I hate to tell you but guess what model was "consistently west" with Ian the entire time then ended up caving back east last minute after screwing up consensus?

Like I said earlier, I won't trust GFS until it can prove it's got it's act together

[jlauderdal]

https://i.imgur.com/CRFO63p.png

gfs has been consistently west this entire time. So maybe it's more right than wrong. Hopefully for our case here in pasco county they are correct.

I hate to tell you but guess what model was "consistently west" with Ian the entire time then ended up caving back east last minute after screwing up consensus?

Like I said earlier, I won't trust GFS until it can prove it's got it's act together

Nhc was consistently west too

[tolakram]

12Z PRE-RECON as far as I know.

HWRF


HMON


HAFS-A


HAFS-B

[gatorcane]

All of the 12Z hurricane models shifted west and are close to the NHC track.

[NDG]

Big shift to the west by the HWRF at landfall.

[Spacecoast]

HWRF Trend

[gatorcane]

Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below. Comparison of the high-res 06Z Euro shows the shift (not shown):

[MJGarrison]

Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below.

That shift is from 24 hours ago rather than from 6 hours ago like the other models.


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[Cat5James]

Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below.

https://i.postimg.cc/x82HgBrx/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-24.gif

That shift is from 24 hours ago rather than from 6 hours ago like the other models.


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Still a large eastward shift. 00z Euro did not show Idalia tracking that close to W Cuba

[gatorcane]

Notable shift east already on the 12Z Euro rolling now. Loop of 0 and 24 hour frames below.

https://i.postimg.cc/x82HgBrx/ec-fast-uv850-vort-watl-fh0-24.gif

That shift is from 24 hours ago rather than from 6 hours ago like the other models.


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Here is the 06Z frame at the same timeframe and the 12Z is more east:

[NDG]

One thing for sure the 12z Euro is running stronger on this run. NHC will have no option but to go up on winds on their next advisory for landfall.

[gatorcane]

Quite a notable shift east on the Euro at 48 hours also.