ATL: IDALIA - Models

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

https://i.imgur.com/WAc9eIj.png

I can’t imagine what Cedar Key and Steinhatchee would look like if this happened.

[Ianswfl]

https://i.imgur.com/ipdohf8.png

Another east shift by the HWRF. The Hafs models big shift too. Mroe shifts, and SWFL will be in the cone too.

[toad strangler]

I actually had to blink twice to make sure that wasn't a mistake. As in, the animation you shared wasn't that of Ian from last year.

Kind of hard to believe the Gulf Coast of Florida's peninsula is under the gun yet again with another I storm.

I don’t think it’s hard to believe at all. It’s that sweet spot zone of barreling towards peak season in a climatological area bursting with historic activity. The name thing is secondary. I is in a favorable spot in the alphabet to be up to bat in prime season. That’s all probability…. Not anything sinister.

We actually live for this. Because this insanity will not end until they fix the GFS.

In the mean time, back to model talk, I really want to see what happens after the 0600 data tomorrow gets added to the mix. I have a feeling everything changes dramatically between 0800-1200 ET as the flight data holds the key.

“Fix the GFS”?

What does that even mean? Every model has its bright spots, bias, and flaws. The GFS with all its perceived problems isn’t at the bottom half of recent verification scores. Posted earlier today by another member.

[robbielyn]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695558911552553194?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

that looks like Ft meyers bound. Let’s hope not

[chris_fit]

18z Euro about the same. Maybe a hair E and slightly faster.

[hohnywx]

HAFS-A
https://i.imgur.com/0VF7BWU.png

B
https://i.imgur.com/5Cz4uav.png

What's the story with the HAFS model…is it fairly new? Reliable? Seems to be a track model..is it related to HWRF?

NOAA put them into service in June 2023 to eventually replace the HWRF and HMON - https://www.noaa.gov/news-release/noaa- ... rts-strong

[chris_fit]

18z EPS... Eyeballing it but looks like the mean will be a decent W shift?

[gatorcane]

TVCN slightly east of the official track (black):

[Ianswfl]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695558911552553194?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

that looks like Ft meyers bound. Let’s hope not

More like Bradenton. I doubt the approach is as sharp as Charley this time.

[tolakram]

18Z Euro

[Ianswfl]

18Z Euro
https://i.imgur.com/QVo2sgY.png

End of run similar to 12z, a tad east.

[gatorcane]

18Z Euro loop. Looks like it shifted slightly east and a bit faster. With Tampa area, west-central Florida on dirty side and with SW onshore winds, would see some decent impacts and you wonder if the storm would be stronger than what the Euro is modeling:

[Spacecoast]

18z EPS:

[tolakram]

Interesting that stronger runs are both left and right of the main track estimate.

[Ianswfl]

Interesting that stronger runs are both left and right of the main track estimate.

A cat2 member right up tampa bay and now a couple into ft. Myers area and one way south. Ddint see that on 12z

[Michele B]

https://i.imgur.com/ipdohf8.png

Another east shift by the HWRF. The Hafs models big shift too. Mroe shifts, and SWFL will be in the cone too.

Yeah, Accuweather cone includes SWFL.

[jlauderdal]

Interesting that stronger runs are both left and right of the main track estimate.

A cat2 member right up tampa bay and now a couple into ft. Myers area and one way south. Ddint see that on 12z

The lack of real movement is a drag on model performance for sure.

[Michele B]

Interesting that stronger runs are both left and right of the main track estimate.

A cat2 member right up tampa bay and now a couple into ft. Myers area and one way south. Ddint see that on 12z

The lack of real movement is a drag on model performance for sure.

Don't they use the data from the highs/lows/trofs, ect. moving in upper atmosphere to calculate its movements? May not be ideal for intensification, but I would think it would be simpler to forecast movement based on air currents.

[Spacecoast]

According to the18z EPS, the next 48hr will determine how far E, or W it will eventually take.
A SW dive, looping clockwise into Yucatan, or a SE dive looping counterclockwise towards Cuba....