ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[caneman]

If a hurricane, west of Appalachicola or a very small slot @Cedar Key or south of Punta Gorda. Those spots are high odds historically for a hurricane moving towards FL West coast. Cedar Key is looking like the spot now, but 18z models started swinging back E so we have plenty of time for big moves.

Climatology can give you a guidance but isn't hard and fast. Tampa Bay dodged Charley, Ian and irma major impacts by a slight shift right. That will end at some point

I just play the odds in situations like this and a hurricane (not TS) moving towards the FL W coast will fall in the 3 areas I highlighted.

Both of us being long time posters, I know that you know that's just pure luck and chance and nothing more. Well... we do have Indians protecting us in Tampa Bay. I'm sure you've heard the stories about our Indian mounds and heritage that protects us.

[abajan]

saved loop https://i.imgur.com/Imd0Diy.gif

Appears to be drifting SW in that loop. Dr. Cowan explains why this may be happening:

[youtube]https://youtu.be/rHHcfZZzAVw[/youtube]

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/GovRonDeSantis/status/1695490796718354517

[robbielyn]

My 30 years of watching these storms as a Florida west coast resident, has taught me a few things. Wherever they say it's going on the first few advisories, is never where it actually goes.

THIS!

[Hurricane Mike]

Evening video update on TD-10
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=e9xzL_UNJHQ

[jlauderdal]

My 30 years of watching these storms as a Florida west coast resident, has taught me a few things. Wherever they say it's going on the first few advisories, is never where it actually goes.

THIS!

NHC is very transparent about error and as good as nhc is, ian wasnt long ago so be on alert...the angle of approach makes it even more difficult

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/WxPatel/status/1695579615694143784

[johngaltfla]

Climatology can give you a guidance but isn't hard and fast. Tampa Bay dodged Charley, Ian and irma major impacts by a slight shift right. That will end at some point

I just play the odds in situations like this and a hurricane (not TS) moving towards the FL W coast will fall in the 3 areas I highlighted.

Both of us being long time posters, I know that you know that's just pure luck and chance and nothing more. Well... we do have Indians protecting us in Tampa Bay. I'm sure you've heard the stories about our Indian mounds and heritage that protects us.

The Indian burial mounds are on Siesta Key and no, you may not relocate them to save Tampa.

[Landy]

[Sciencerocks]

:eek:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1145147303393505391/1693094792163109242.png?width=911&height=684

I am thinking that it is probably a tropical storm with winds of 40 knts and pressure of 1001-1002mbs.

[Ianswfl]

:eek:
https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/877402829797621770/1145147303393505391/1693094792163109242.png?width=911&height=684

I am thinking that it is probably a tropical storm with winds of 40 knts and pressure of 1001-1002mbs.

And more east too. Models shifting back east. Hafs models a big threat to Tampa area. HWRF Cedar Key.

[GCANE]

The highest CAPE in the GOM is usually offshore Houston.
Not now. Shifted east to the MS Delta at 7000.
Not a good sign.

[caneman]

I just play the odds in situations like this and a hurricane (not TS) moving towards the FL W coast will fall in the 3 areas I highlighted.

Both of us being long time posters, I know that you know that's just pure luck and chance and nothing more. Well... we do have Indians protecting us in Tampa Bay. I'm sure you've heard the stories about our Indian mounds and heritage that protects us.

The Indian burial mounds are on Siesta Key and no, you may not relocate them to save Tampa.

We have them here as well in Safety Harbor, St. PETE and more and Indian Rocks is name after them as well. The tribe was named Tocobaga

[GCANE]

Vorts are stacked to 200mb. Dang
Just saw this with Hilary

[GCANE]

Anticyclone has setup between Cuba and Haiti.
Kicking in a poleward outflow channel

[SFLcane]

I actually don’t think it looks that impressive on satellite might see some loops and potential land interaction with Cuba could make this very tricky track wise in my opinion.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695597819401285961

[cycloneye]

Two things on the 00z best track. Winds up to 30kt and pressure down to 1005 mbs.

AL, 10, 2023082700, , BEST, 0, 212N, 863W, 30, 1005, TD

[Keldeo1997]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695597819401285961

[GCANE]

The NHC track in the GOM keeps this in the anticyclone wave break formed from the UL trof that will be anchored along the TX/LA border