ATL: IDALIA - Models

[BobHarlem]

18z Canadian (last frame) compared to 12z 2mb stronger and slightly right.

[jlauderdal]

So, just a thought. GFS showing only a 5 mb drop in pressure in 60 hr's? Given the significant amout of organization that occured today and assuming no near term land interaction then i'm not sure what mitigating factor would prevent moderate deepening resulting faster pressure falls (especially given the bath water below). Upwelling? Misalligned LLC/MLC? Increase in shear? A stronger storm at 60 hr's. then what the GFS is depicting "may" impact the further downstream GFS forecast.

The gfs has been terrible with this system and that continues until proven otherwise...a few days ago the nhc completly blew off its solution of no system and started probabilities

[BobHarlem]

Hurricane models are coming in (To monday).
still around Yucatan

HMON has it cat 2 by monday morning.
HAFS A/B has it cat 1.

[gatorcane]

Huge shift east by HAFS-A. Looks to be heading close to the Tampa area:

[gatorcane]

Here is the simulated IR from HAFS-A. No bueno for surge-prone Tampa area and west coast of Florida

[SFLcane]

Right turn? This model did great with Ian

 https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695551215759687852

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695558911552553194

[Category5Kaiju]

Right turn? This model did great with Ian

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695551215759687852?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

I actually had to blink twice to make sure that wasn't a mistake. As in, the animation you shared wasn't that of Ian from last year.

Kind of hard to believe the Gulf Coast of Florida's peninsula is under the gun yet again with another I storm.

[PavelGaborik10]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695558911552553194?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Certainly still not ideal but worth pointing out that those are gusts, not sustained winds.

[SFLcane]

Right turn? This model did great with Ian

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695551215759687852?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

If that is a a right turn that’s pretty concerning.

[SFLcane]

Right turn? This model did great with Ian

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695551215759687852?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

I actually had to blink twice to make sure that wasn't a mistake. As in, the animation you shared wasn't that of Ian from last year.

Kind of hard to believe the Gulf Coast of Florida's peninsula is under the gun yet again with another I storm.

Ian? Nope that’s TD10

[BobHarlem]

Hmon goes back to Mexico Beach (please don't)

[SFLcane]

Trended east again…

[tolakram]

HWRF going all in on the far east track.

[tolakram]

HAFS-A


B

[toad strangler]

Right turn? This model did great with Ian

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695551215759687852?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

I actually had to blink twice to make sure that wasn't a mistake. As in, the animation you shared wasn't that of Ian from last year.

Kind of hard to believe the Gulf Coast of Florida's peninsula is under the gun yet again with another I storm.

I don’t think it’s hard to believe at all. It’s that sweet spot zone of barreling towards peak season in a climatological area bursting with historic activity. The name thing is secondary. I is in a favorable spot in the alphabet to be up to bat in prime season. That’s all probability…. Not anything sinister.

[tolakram]

[johngaltfla]

Right turn? This model did great with Ian

https://twitter.com/ericburriswesh/status/1695551215759687852?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

I actually had to blink twice to make sure that wasn't a mistake. As in, the animation you shared wasn't that of Ian from last year.

Kind of hard to believe the Gulf Coast of Florida's peninsula is under the gun yet again with another I storm.

I don’t think it’s hard to believe at all. It’s that sweet spot zone of barreling towards peak season in a climatological area bursting with historic activity. The name thing is secondary. I is in a favorable spot in the alphabet to be up to bat in prime season. That’s all probability…. Not anything sinister.

We actually live for this. Because this insanity will not end until they fix the GFS.

In the mean time, back to model talk, I really want to see what happens after the 0600 data tomorrow gets added to the mix. I have a feeling everything changes dramatically between 0800-1200 ET as the flight data holds the key.

[SFLcane]

I actually had to blink twice to make sure that wasn't a mistake. As in, the animation you shared wasn't that of Ian from last year.

Kind of hard to believe the Gulf Coast of Florida's peninsula is under the gun yet again with another I storm.

I don’t think it’s hard to believe at all. It’s that sweet spot zone of barreling towards peak season in a climatological area bursting with historic activity. The name thing is secondary. I is in a favorable spot in the alphabet to be up to bat in prime season. That’s all probability…. Not anything sinister.

We actually live for this. Because this insanity will not end until they fix the GFS.

In the mean time, back to model talk, I really want to see what happens after the 0600 data tomorrow gets added to the mix. I have a feeling everything changes dramatically between 0800-1200 ET as the flight data holds the key.

+1

[GTStorm]

HAFS-A
https://i.imgur.com/0VF7BWU.png

B
https://i.imgur.com/5Cz4uav.png

What's the story with the HAFS model…is it fairly new? Reliable? Seems to be a track model..is it related to HWRF?