ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[gatorcane]

Track closer to Bermuda:

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Looks like recon is about to make its first pass. Looks like there could be a bit of dry air trying to get in there, I'm guessing recon will find a similar intensity to the last mission

Edit: extrap pressure 975 so looks like I've been proved wrong in about 10 seconds

[aspen]

Looks like recon is about to make its first pass. Looks like there could be a bit of dry air trying to get in there, I'm guessing recon will find a similar intensity to the last mission

Edit: extrap pressure 975 so looks like I've been proved wrong in about 10 seconds

I’m guessing the pressure is catching up to the winds, which so far seem lower than last flight. But they haven’t sampled the NE quad yet.

[Landy]

Recon confirms a pinhole eye, 7nm open NE.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

AL, 08, 2023082700, , BEST, 0, 239N, 679W, 75, 976, HU

[zzzh]

Pressure has dropped a lot, however winds are not picking up.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Pressure has dropped a lot, however winds are not picking up.

75kts was the highest surface wind I saw. Looks like they missed the center on the dropsonde since it had 55kts at splashdown (AF plane)

[Sciencerocks]

[Ptarmigan]

I would not be surprised if Franklin becomes a major hurricane by tomorrow.

[crimi481]

Is Franklin's inflow (from the s.w.) drawing energy from #10? Weakening #10?

[IcyTundra]

NHC now forecasting Franklin to become a cat 4 with 130 mph winds at peak intensity.

[Sciencerocks]

[ScottNAtlanta]

There has been very little northward component to Franklin's motion in the last 6 hours. It isn't forecast to cross 70w until Monday at 2am. I believe it is going to cross that by sunrise. Looking at the water vapor loop, the trough that is supposed to steer it out is fairly flat right now, and the further west this gets, the more it looks like it might miss the trough

[Teban54]

[aspen]

Recon is about to fly into Franklin. Will it find a Cat 2 or a steady high-end Cat 1?

[weeniepatrol]

[Hurricane2022]

000
URNT12 KNHC 271312
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL082023
A. 27/12:51:30Z
B. 24.99 deg N 069.15 deg W
C. 700 mb 2870 m
D. 972 mb
E. 200 deg 6 kt
F. CLOSED
G. C20
H. 66 kt
I. 320 deg 9 nm 12:48:30Z
J. 051 deg 66 kt
K. 319 deg 11 nm 12:48:00Z
L. 62 kt
M. 139 deg 8 nm 12:54:00Z
N. 233 deg 63 kt
O. 137 deg 10 nm 12:54:30Z
P. 12 C / 3042 m
Q. 16 C / 3048 m
R. 4 C / NA
S. 12345 / 07
T. 0.02 / 1 nm
U. AF300 1308A FRANKLIN OB 10
MAX FL WIND 84 KT 046 / 13 NM 11:20:30Z
CONCENTRIC BAND FORMING AROUND EYEWALL, ~70NM DIAMETER

;

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/JimCantore/status/1695788771164233866