ATL: FRANKLIN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Sciencerocks]

[ElectricStorm]

Eye drop 986/3, 2mb drop since last pass, this is strengthening pretty quickly.

Looks like this mission is done

[aspen]

Looks like Franklin is around 75 kt and 986 mbar. Impressive. Maybe we’ll see a Cat 2 tonight at this rate. However, there’s a tongue of dry air that could disrupt the core, and the hurricane models don’t show a super strongly defined eyewall and RI until midday tomorrow at the earliest.

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695434403177013494

[Category5Kaiju]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695434403177013494?t=TXROpTEDMxjVvkkQnYiWSA&s=19

Welp...

Just shows you how fast things can change over a week.

[Jr0d]

This will be a swell maker on the East coast. Depending on how north(or south), the other his when it traverses the Florida Peninsula, this could be a great set up for epic surf in Central Florida, if that other system is far enough north to deliver offshore winds.

Offshore winds plus large relatively long period swell from Franklin = great surf.

Might have to call in sick the middle of next week.

[ElectricStorm]

Last couple GFS runs have actually gotten this pretty close to Bermuda. If it goes a little south of track they could still end up getting some significant impacts. Probably not super likely but something to keep an eye on

[IsabelaWeather]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695434403177013494?t=TXROpTEDMxjVvkkQnYiWSA&s=19

Welp...

Just shows you how fast things can change over a week.

Sorta, when he said that there were like 3 AOI's. He's just spouting a huge bias. I really think a pro met should keep their bias in check and focus on the situation is as neutral as you can.

I am rather curious I dont see any threats listed in the discussion for Franklin about spells affecting other areas. They just had it limited to bermuda, why wouldnt this generate huge swells here in PR? Is it because its moving perpendicular to the island?

[SteveM]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695434403177013494?t=TXROpTEDMxjVvkkQnYiWSA&s=19

Welp...

Just shows you how fast things can change over a week.

Sorta, when he said that there were like 3 AOI's. He's just spouting a huge bias. I really think a pro met should keep their bias in check and focus on the situation is as neutral as you can.

I think people on here have been very unkind to him the last few days. He is a professional and like any other human being, he can get things wrong. No one has a crystal ball. Accusations of bias are not OK.

[AnnularCane]

https://twitter.com/cyclonicwx/status/1695434403177013494?t=TXROpTEDMxjVvkkQnYiWSA&s=19

And possibly 93L as well.

[zzzh]

[Zonacane]

No doubt Franklin becomes our first major

[cycloneye]

18z Best Track up to 75kt.

AL, 08, 2023082618, , BEST, 0, 235N, 673W, 75, 982, HU

[aspen]

Are there anymore recon flights scheduled for today? Or do we have to wait until tomorrow?

[ElectricStorm]

08L FRANKLIN 230826 1800 23.5N 67.3W ATL 75 982

[zzzh]

Are there anymore recon flights scheduled for today? Or do we have to wait until tomorrow?

Recon will be there around 00z.

[Iceresistance]

ASCAT bullseye (NOTE: Image is 4 hours older than this post)


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguJ7.png

[gatorcane]

It will be interesting to see the upcoming discussion given the Euro has shifted east tracking over or close to Bermuda.

[HurricaneBelle]

From the new discussion:

"The latest visible imagery shows a dimple where an eye may
be trying to develop."

Surprised they didn't call it "cute".

[ElectricStorm]

From the discussion:

For the long term, models,
including the GFS and ECMWF, have made a fairly large shift to the
right. The NHC track was shifted in that direction in the long term,
but remains to the left of the consensus aids. The confidence of the
long-term forecast track is lower than usual.