ATL: IDALIA - Models

[USTropics]

Just a reminder, the HWRF had the third worst verification score last year for track guidance in the first 48 hours:
https://i.imgur.com/Vluqb3A.jpg

What is concerning is the uptick in intensity on all of the 12z guidance of the mesoscale hurricane models, where they typically are more useful:
https://i.imgur.com/UDSeUX0.jpg

Thank you for sharing. Can you share the link to this data on the web?

Jeff Masters does this yearly in his blog, can get all the details here - https://capeweather.com/which-hurricane-models-should-you-trust-in-2023-yale-climate-connections/

[Fancy1002]

The latest HWRF run is looking interesting.

[LAF92]

The latest HWRF run is looking interesting.

We’ve all got to remember the HWRF is always on the strong side there’s not indication this storm will bomb out like the HWRF is showing. Especially with no COC formed yet

[Teban54]

Especially with no COC formed yet

I beg to differ.

[gatorcane]

12Z HWRF shifts west and much stronger:

[SconnieCane]

The latest HWRF run is looking interesting.

We’ve all got to remember the HWRF is always on the strong side there’s not indication this storm will bomb out like the HWRF is showing. Especially with no COC formed yet

HAFS A & B also ate their Wheaties (or rather, their simulated 93L did) on today's 12Z run, so it's not like the HWRF is on an island.

[Stormlover1970]

This isn’t even a storm yet let alone a hurricane. That’s why I trust Denis Phillips he never hypes anything. I would like to see all model runs not just the doomsday worst case scenario.

[Zonacane]

This isn’t even a storm yet let alone a hurricane. That’s why I trust Denis Phillips he never hypes anything. I would like to see all model runs not just the doomsday worst case scenario.

Global models should never really be used for intensity guidance. The concern, however, is both global and meso models are getting more intense. The potential for a high end hurricane is certainly there.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro with Tampa on the dirty side. The Euro is quite a bit further east than the GFS. Normally it is the other way around so models will shift more:

[chaser1]

The latest HWRF run is looking interesting.

We’ve all got to remember the HWRF is always on the strong side there’s not indication this storm will bomb out like the HWRF is showing. Especially with no COC formed yet

HAFS A & B also ate their Wheaties (or rather, their simulated 93L did) on today's 12Z run, so it's not like the HWRF is on an island.

True, but i've become leary of all of them. I've found them to be inconsistant from a run-to-run perspective. In fairness I suppose we'll have to give both HAFS time to monitor how their forecasts verify

[LarryWx]

12Z Euro with Tampa on the dirty side. The Euro is quite a bit further east than the GFS. Normally it is the other way around so models will shift more:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZYL4Jc94/ec-fast-mslp-uv850-watl-fh0-96.gif

The GFS was NW of Euro with Ian early on with a number of runs.

[aspen]

12z HWRF depicts the worst possible scenario for Florida: 93L/Idalia continues this rapid pace of organization and has minimal land interaction before getting into the Gulf, and travels in a way that makes it less impacted by shear. A Cat 4 as depicted in this run is quite unlikely to verify IMO, but I think we do need to watch out for something similar to Michael and Ian where the expected Gulf shear actually helps it strengthen.

[cycloneye]

Bermuda is hit again by Idalia after Franklin did the same.

[Ivanhater]

18Z Guidance in good agreement



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[xironman]

18Z Guidance in good agreement

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230826/4d25ed36933c49c55c8c8c3854ddb1c3.jpg

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No land interaction. Plenty of tropical heat. It is all up to the upper levels and how fast it can form a core. Looks like it is taking in one last gulp of drier air. Then we will see.

[TallyTracker]

18Z Guidance in good agreement

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20230826/4d25ed36933c49c55c8c8c3854ddb1c3.jpg

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Glad I gassed both cars up and topped off my supplies last night! lol The supply rush is starting to ramp up here in Tally.

[Nimbus]

12Z Euro with Tampa on the dirty side. The Euro is quite a bit further east than the GFS. Normally it is the other way around so models will shift more:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZYL4Jc94/ec-fast-mslp-uv850-watl-fh0-96.gif

That is what WXman57 gave us many runs ago.
A 995 tropical storm off Tampa bay area takes out the power with 55+ mph winds.
Good warning although todays 18Z consensus is still a little farther west.

[gatorcane]

12Z Euro ensembles:

[JetFuel_SE]

12Z Euro with Tampa on the dirty side. The Euro is quite a bit further east than the GFS. Normally it is the other way around so models will shift more:

https://i.postimg.cc/ZYL4Jc94/ec-fast-mslp-uv850-watl-fh0-96.gif

That is what WXman57 gave us many runs ago.
A 995 tropical storm off Tampa bay area takes out the power with 55+ mph winds.
Good warning although todays 18Z consensus is still a little farther west.

The Euro pretty much always underestimates storms, I wouldn't count on it for intensity.

[chaser1]

Toughest part is that until we have a confirmed well defined core, then its reasonable to think that modeling will potentially fluctuate given the uncertainty of good initialization. Of course this is especially true with regard to timing. The point "when" forward motion occurs (sooner or later) will largely bear out the timing of interplay with other factors that may dictate how much (or little) upper level shear will factor in