ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

Seriously?


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png

[chaser1]

Seriously?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png

You can't make this stuff up

[zhukm29]

Seriously?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png

You can't make this stuff up

Here is my favorite picture for this: this was from a week ago with the trio of Emily, Franklin, and Gert (before they developed).

[xironman]

Wow, just happened to look up the latest on it and the model runs. This one could sneak up on people that aren't expecting such a storm in the short term.

[zhukm29]

One potential thing to watch for: the stronger 93L is, the less shear it could have to deal with, since a stronger system would erode the trough that could moderate the potential strength of 93L in the Gulf. This is actually concerning, especially since the hurricane models have been trending a lot stronger in recent runs (especially since models previously thought it would sit over the Yucatan for a while, but now it has three days over absolutely insane water temperatures). The upper limit for 93L is quite high, especially if it manages to avoid the Yucatan and erode the trough faster... hopefully some of those hurricane models don't end up verifying.

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1695422439218401320

[CronkPSU]

Seriously?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png

You can't make this stuff up

Here is my favorite picture for this: this was from a week ago with the trio of Emily, Franklin, and Gert (before they developed).

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/716215692617187328/1142577630953082890/F366l1nWAAAKfdi.png

You have ONE job ASCAT and you completely missed it Lol

[xironman]

They are on it for tomorrow.

2. SUSPECT AREA (NW CARIBBEAN - AL93)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 27/1400Z A. 27/1500Z
B. NOAA3 01DDAA TDR B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
C. 27/1000Z C. 27/1230Z
D. 21.3N 86.5W D. 21.3N 86.5W
E. 27/1330Z TO 27/1630Z E. 27/1430Z TO 27/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. LOW LEVEL INVEST

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 28/0000Z A. 28/0530Z
B. NOAA9 03DDA SURV B. AFXXX 0410A CYCLONE
C. 27/1730Z C. 28/0300Z
D. NA D. 21.8N 86.5W
E. NA E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. FIX

FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 73
A. 28/1200Z A. 28/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA9 0510A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0610A CYCLONE
C. 28/0530Z C. 28/0900Z
D. NA D. 22.1N 86.5W
E. NA E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. FIX

FLIGHT SEVEN - NOAA 43
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0710A CYCLONE
C. 28/1000Z
D. 22.1N 86.5W
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR

[TampaBayBee]

FL Governor DeSantis has issued a state of emergency for 33 counties in advance of the system.
"“out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management
can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a
storm next week.”

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/flo ... -102587570

[MGC]

Perfect upper level conditions above 93L currently. There is nothing to hold it back as long as the disturbance remains offshore. Wish we had recon this afternoon......MGC

[Ianswfl]

Based on the euro and hwrf models likely southwest fl will be in the 5 day cone even though big bend area. Will still send many in a frenzy here tomorrow

[SFLcane]

Wxman you sure this is coming in south of Tampa? Certainly not what Guidance is showing unless they are way to west as you suggested.

[Ianswfl]

Wxman you sure this is coming in south of Tampa? Certainly not what Guidance is certainly not looking that way unless they are way to west as you suggested.

I think more Pasco county area. Remember when models had ian big bend he called it for ft myers

[Sciencerocks]

Looks like a tropical storm with around 35knt winds.

[chaser1]

FL Governor DeSantis has issued a state of emergency for 33 counties in advance of the system.
"“out of an abundance of caution to ensure that the Florida Division of Emergency Management
can begin staging resources and Floridians have plenty of time to prepare their families for a
storm next week.”

Makes sense, but kind of funny too. Not sure ive ever seen a State of Emergency for a yet to be classified tropical system

https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/flo ... -102587570

[cycloneye]

Yes, the letter I.

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1695488314911191151

[hiflyer]

Cuban radar shows good details….pretty decent water temps in the Channel and only get’s warmer as it goes Northeast.

http://www.insmet.cu/Radar/00Pinar%20de ... AXw01a.gif


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Pro

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1695494270721884416

[wxman57]

Seriously?

https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png
https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguA9.png

All scatterometers were pre-programmed prior to launch to miss any tropical feature that does not have a clear eye, worldwide. Didn't you know that? Once the clear eye forms, they hit it twice daily.

[caneman]

https://twitter.com/DylanFedericoWX/status/1695494270721884416

I actually believe it was close this morning when I found a West wind. I'd be shocked if they don't pull the trigger at 5. If we are to believe the Euro , we're T-96 for near landfall and significant effects.

[SFLcane]

Wxman57you sure this is coming in south of Tampa? Certainly not what Guidance is showing unless they are way to west as you suggested.

?