ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[zzzh]

ASCAT missed the system.

[REDHurricane]

ASCAT missed the system.

As is tradition

[cycloneye]

ASCAT missed the system.

Oh no. Why many of them miss the target?

[chaser1]

ASCAT missed the system.

Of course it did

[Landy]

Notable improvement on radar this morning.

[shah83]

We've all seen enough, this is a TD at least. Obviously, this state of organization may not last, for now, but still...

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ZackFradellaWx/status/1695485578387632132

[chaser1]

No ascat, no recon. I think i'm moving up my guess of a "Special Tropical Disturbance Update" to classify as TD from 8:00 pm, to 5:00pm instead.

[Ian2401]

I've gotta think that the only thing holding NHC back are a couple of reliable ships obs. Seems to me though that Satellite interpretation has yet to substantiate adequate winds as measured by cloud motion.

think thats why they've got to go PTC @ 5 until at least they get recon in there tomorrow morning and can confirm tropical status

[aspen]

ASCAT missed the system.

Classic. ASCAT always misses whenever we need a pass.

Shouldn’t those TROPICS CubeSats be providing similar data as ASCAT and at greater frequency?

[Nimbus]

Recon is usually pretty good about guessing the position at mission time.
They have this within 21 miles of Cancun Sunday morning.
Its hard to convey a 3 day dynamic process superpositioned in a two dimensional frame LOL.

The trough is outlined on the 12Z GFS pretty far east at 60 hours.



Trough migrates west(rather than splitting)till at 90 hours its no longer shearing the storm as much and the storm is tracking fairly quickly around the western periphery of the high to the east.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Weather Channel seems to think this will most likely Top out as a Tropical Storm only, but will still bring some big soaking rains to Florida...............Let's hope it moves fast once it landfalls.

Considering that their main objective is public awareness, this is the right call until this thing develops. There are some signs that the potential intensity ceiling is higher than initially thought, but it would cause unnecessary worry to bring that the general public for now

I believe their #1 objective is to sell ad space, to as large an audience as can be encouraged for as long a time as possible.
Although they are a big source of weather info. to a large audience during hurricane threats, if anything, they tend to over-sensationalize as a matter of course. Not that many of their on-camera personnel has very much experience or knowledge of the science of tropical weather or forecasting. A few do-like Knabb.

I wasn’t saying they were providing weather awareness out of the goodness of their heart, I was saying that a broad, cautious message at this point is a better message to a relatively uninformed general public than trying to get into more technical nuances of how high the ceiling is. I am critical of twc, probably in a lot of the same ways as you, but the point was I think the particular message they gave here is the right call, considering the NHC intensity guidance won’t be available until this system is classified.

[LandoWill]

So GFS continues to be west vs other models?

[chaser1]

Notable improvement on radar this morning.
https://images-ext-1.discordapp.net/external/AfoRGq8YJq_WTvlQwEIOv1o78MU24nNmTX66Jpp1j8s/https/bmcnoldy.rsmas.miami.edu/tropics/idalia23/Idalia_26-27Aug23_canc_recent.gif

Perhaps a south to SW'erly motion?

[cycloneye]

If this trend continues, advisories will be initiated on this system later today.

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and Eastern Gulf of Mexico (AL93):
Showers and thunderstorms associated with an area of low pressure
located near the Yucatan Channel continue to gradually become
better organized. If this trend continues, advisories will be
initiated on this system later today. The system is expected to
move very slowly northward into the southeastern Gulf of Mexico
during the next couple of days. Heavy rains are likely over
portions of western Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico.
Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba, and
Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

[zzzh]

Based on the wording I'm guessing they are going to pull the trigger at 8.

[ConvergenceZone]

The Weather Channel seems to think this will most likely Top out as a Tropical Storm only, but will still bring some big soaking rains to Florida...............Let's hope it moves fast once it landfalls.

Considering that their main objective is public awareness, this is the right call until this thing develops. There are some signs that the potential intensity ceiling is higher than initially thought, but it would cause unnecessary worry to bring that the general public for now

I believe their #1 objective is to sell ad space, to as large an audience as can be encouraged for as long a time as possible.
Although they are a big source of weather info. to a large audience during hurricane threats, if anything, they tend to over-sensationalize as a matter of course. Not that many of their on-camera personnel has very much experience or knowledge of the science of tropical weather or forecasting. A few do-like Knabb.

But doesn't the weather channel get their information from Knabb though? And he's incredibly respected when it comes to the tropics.

[SouthDadeFish]

This is rapidly becoming a dangerous situation. Really do not like the trends with this system. It sure looks like a TC right now, already.

[Iceresistance]

This is rapidly becoming a dangerous situation. Really do not like the trends with this system. It sure looks like a TC right now, already.

Almost perfect outflow as well, I don't recall an Invest looking like this recently.


https://s11.gifyu.com/images/SguAs.png

[chaser1]

This is rapidly becoming a dangerous situation. Really do not like the trends with this system. It sure looks like a TC right now, already.

Right? If nothing else there's the immediate impact to marine interests, and of course the very near term impact to those in NE Yucatan