ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

NHC Update

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=30JeBr0swzw

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/CraigSetzer/status/1695467112851013951

[chaser1]

(V)Idalia may be a real "tear-jerker"

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1695468850463330551

[NDG]

12z soundings from this morning confirms the strong ridge in the south central FL extending east towards the SE US, the reason 93L will not move much during the next couple of days, as a shortwave troughs digs down over the MS river valley and just west it will push the ridge westward and 93L will start moving north out of the Caribbean, at the same time ridging will nose in just east of S FL from the central Caribbean to keep it from moving too much east.

[ConvergenceZone]

The Weather Channel seems to think this will most likely Top out as a Tropical Storm only, but will still bring some big soaking rains to Florida...............Let's hope it moves fast once it landfalls.

[zzzh]

2. SUSPECT AREA (NW CARIBBEAN - AL93)
FLIGHT ONE - NOAA 43 FLIGHT TWO - TEAL 71
A. 27/1400Z A. 27/1500Z
B. NOAA3 01DDAA TDR B. AFXXX 02DDA INVEST
C. 27/1000Z C. 27/1230Z
D. 21.3N 86.5W D. 21.3N 86.5W
E. 27/1330Z TO 27/1630Z E. 27/1430Z TO 27/1900Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. LOW LEVEL INVEST

FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 72
A. 28/0000Z A. 28/0530Z
B. NOAA9 03DDA SURV B. AFXXX 0410A CYCLONE
C. 27/1730Z C. 28/0300Z
D. NA D. 21.8N 86.5W
E. NA E. 28/0500Z TO 28/0830Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. FIX

FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX - TEAL 73
A. 28/1200Z A. 28/1130Z,1730Z
B. NOAA9 0510A CYCLONE B. AFXXX 0610A CYCLONE
C. 28/0530Z C. 28/0900Z
D. NA D. 22.1N 86.5W
E. NA E. 28/1100Z TO 28/1730Z
F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. FIX

FLIGHT SEVEN - NOAA 43
A. 28/1200Z
B. NOAA3 0710A CYCLONE
C. 28/1000Z
D. 22.1N 86.5W
E. 28/1130Z TO 28/1530Z
F. SFC TO 15,000 FT
G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR

[GCANE]

CoC seems to be over the water just offshore Cuba
Feeder band continues to strengthen.
Visible satellite looks better by the minute.
99% sure this is a TD

[Hurricaneman]

By the time recon gets there this could be a 50 to 60mph TS

[SFLcane]

Wondering if the center could reform to the east were the deep convection is..

[NDG]

The Weather Channel seems to think this will most likely Top out as a Tropical Storm only, but will still bring some big soaking rains to Florida...............Let's hope it moves fast once it landfalls.

Interesting they are being conservative with 93L this early on when is coming from the same place that forecasted the most aggressive season forecast.

[zzzh]

By the time recon gets there this could be a 50 to 60mph TS

Agreed. It would be better if we have recon today.

[zzzh]

Wondering if the center could reform to the east were the deep convection is..

The system is not sheared. I don't see center reformation happening.

[cheezyWXguy]

The Weather Channel seems to think this will most likely Top out as a Tropical Storm only, but will still bring some big soaking rains to Florida...............Let's hope it moves fast once it landfalls.

Considering that their main objective is public awareness, this is the right call until this thing develops. There are some signs that the potential intensity ceiling is higher than initially thought, but it would cause unnecessary worry to bring that the general public for now

[chaser1]

Imagine the last minute Cruise ittinerary changes going on right now? Especially those cruises just now departing Belize or those ships presently in Cancun or Cozumel scheduled to depart back to S. Florida ports?

"Sorry folks, the Limbo challange on the Lido deck has been cancelled on account of mass nausea..."

[ElectricStorm]

By the time recon gets there this could be a 50 to 60mph TS

If it can stay away from land it might be able to, but with it meandering around for a while down there it could end up moving over the Yucatan or Cuba. We'll see

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1695474986712981992

[Chemmers]

I think by the time the recon get there we would have a strong tropical storm on are hands?

[chaser1]

By the time recon gets there this could be a 50 to 60mph TS

If it can stay away from land it might be able to, but with it meandering around for a while down there it could end up moving over the Yucatan or Cuba. We'll see

Was thinking the same thing. In fact, if i were to guess any erratic drift or short term motion, I would guess it would be between west and NW.

[Hugo1989]

Special advisory could happen at any time since now. I don't think they even want to wait until next TWO.