ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ianswfl]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1695450985236148735

Look at the direction of the black line!

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/FloridaTropics1/status/1695450985236148735

That means PTC or TD this afternoon or evening. Still waiting for the TCPOD to see if a plane will go later today.

[ElectricStorm]

With a TCFA out I would definitely expect PTC or TD advisories to start at the next cycle

[Chemmers]

The way it looking wouldn't be surprised if they sent a recon tonight if not earlier

[Javlin]

Something coming together @ 86.5ishW/ 21.5N??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

What just came out of the Big bend area this morning pushing far into the GOM?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

[SunnyThoughts]

Almost looks like 2 separate areas trying to consolidate. One around the tip of Cuba, the other around the Yucatan.

[Blown Away]

Something coming together @ 86.5ishW/ 21.5N??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

Also rotation @21.5N/85W…

[Hugo1989]

In my mind there is no reason to wait until tomorrow for a recon to visit the system the way it's looking now.

[NDG]

Light showers with light winds on the beach in Cancun this morning. But as I type this some darker clouds moving in.
https://www.hardrockhotels.com/cancun/webcam.aspx

[chaser1]

The faster then anticipated organization of 93L is a bit concerning. The rate of pressure falls, size of and time it'll take to develop it's inner core may suggest an increased risk of a potential Cat 1/2 making a Florida landfall rather then the moderate to strong TS that most of us were anticipating.

[WxEp]

Was checking out some Area Forecast Discussions in areas that could potentially be affected and found this from NWS Melbourne's most current discussion (8:55 this morning)

Developing system near Yucatan: The latest outlook from NHC has a 70
pct chance of developing into a cyclone within the next 48 hours as
the feature tracks over the southeast Gulf of Mex. First aerial
recon is scheduled for late this aftn after 6 PM.

We'll have to see if this is an early indicator to a change in the TCPOD.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Something coming together @ 86.5ishW/ 21.5N??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

What just came out of the Big bend area this morning pushing far into the GOM?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

I think that is a collapsing thunderstorm boundary

[Spacecoast]

UW-CIMSS:

[chaser1]

Something coming together @ 86.5ishW/ 21.5N??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

What just came out of the Big bend area this morning pushing far into the GOM?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Good "pick-up"! Looks like some mid to upper clouds were blast out of a gun LOL, or almost like a gravity wave? Does look weird!

[Javlin]

Something coming together @ 86.5ishW/ 21.5N??

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

What just came out of the Big bend area this morning pushing far into the GOM?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

I think that is a collapsing thunderstorm boundary

So an outflow boundary of sorts?

[hipshot]

Was checking out some Area Forecast Discussions in areas that could potentially be affected and found this from NWS Melbourne's most current discussion (8:55 this morning)

Developing system near Yucatan: The latest outlook from NHC has a 70
pct chance of developing into a cyclone within the next 48 hours as
the feature tracks over the southeast Gulf of Mex. First aerial
recon is scheduled for late this aftn after 6 PM.

We'll have to see if this is an early indicator to a change in the TCPOD.

It sure reads like it, I'll bet we see something official PDQ.

[NDG]

Watch the last few frames of the radar loop from Cancun how quickly is getting organized vertically, the LLC and MLC coming together near 21.2N & 86.3W

[skillz305]

Didn’t the very early model runs from almost a week ago show a significant storm forming here and hitting Florida? This was when we were waiting for Franklin to pass thru DR/Haiti northward but was taking its time.

[psyclone]

This system looks to be coming together rather quickly. I'm thinking we have a good chance of a td or ptc before the day is out

[MississippiWx]

I’m not sure what the hold up is from the NHC. This is a tropical cyclone.