ATL: IDALIA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[aspen]

When the gang thinks they will iniciate PTC advisories?

Either at 11 or 5 today, since 48hr development odds are at 70%.

[jlauderdal]

When the gang thinks they will iniciate PTC advisories? I say 5 PM.

I say 5 or later.

[Chemmers]

When the gang thinks they will iniciate PTC advisories?

Later this afternoon. Will be about 96 hours out so they'll need to get to it.

Defo by late afternoon or evening

[NDG]

I placed the X where I think a more defined LLC is developing, though both Cancun and Cozumel are reporting calm winds, we will see as the morning goes.

[kevin]

Wow this is coming together way sooner than I expected. Should be a PTC or maybe even already a TD later today.

[NDG]

Pure high octane fuel now being fed into the persistent convection of 93L this morning.
85F with a dewpoint of 80F.

[Ianswfl]

Pure high octane fuel now being fed into the persistent convection of 93L this morning.
85F with a dewpoint of 80F.

https://i.imgur.com/J6UCs7H.jpg

More east that where models have it too! Still shear to deal with but an earl 98 type storm becoming more possible i think. Further south too around tampa I think.

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2023082612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 865W, 20, 1006, DB

[NDG]

12z Best Track:

AL, 93, 2023082612, , BEST, 0, 210N, 865W, 20, 1006, DB

Just a few miles east of Cancun, not sure if I agree with its position, I would place closer to where placed the X on Sat loop.

[afswo]

When the gang thinks they will iniciate PTC advisories? I say 5 PM.

I agree with you and the others who have responded so far that advisories will initiate with the 5 PM cycle this afternoon. 93L is coalescing steadily and NHC will want to make sure that there is ample warning. As many on this forum are aware, conditions where Ian struck are still in recovery mode and somewhat fragile. It will not take much to cause infrastructure impacts across the region.

[Sanibel]

Climatology should err west...


I have to worry about the tarps from Ian being blown off which seems a foregone conclusion at this point...


Hurricane Devil on me strong...

[cycloneye]

When the gang thinks they will iniciate PTC advisories? I say 5 PM.

I agree with you and the others who have responded so far that advisories will initiate with the 5 PM cycle this afternoon. 93L is coalescing steadily and NHC will want to make sure that there is ample warning. As many on this forum are aware, conditions where Ian struck are still in recovery mode and somewhat fragile. It will not take much to cause infrastructure impacts across the region.

Agreed. It does not matter at what intensity it makes landfall, there will be impacts even if does as a TS.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1695429304622944537

[BobHarlem]

Any chance of them sending a recon plane out today ahead of schedule? That system is looking a lot better on satellite than i thought it would be.

[cycloneye]

Any chance of them sending a recon plane out today ahead of schedule? That system is looking a lot better on satellite than i thought it would be.

Let's see if today's TCPOD that comes out later this morning has a remark about it.

[GCANE]

Starting to look good off the tip of Cuba.
Constant firing high-helicity towers with a feeder band maybe forming.

[GCANE]

Yucatan buoy is picking up the development of the feeder band,
Winds SW, picking up speed.
Looks good for the tip of Cuba

[Ianswfl]

Yucatan buoy is picking up the development of the feeder band,
Winds SW, picking up speed.
Looks good for the tip of Cuba

Forming east of the models it looks like

[GCANE]

Yucatan buoy is picking up the development of the feeder band,
Winds SW, picking up speed.
Looks good for the tip of Cuba

Forming east of the models it looks like

And Faster.
The tell will be if NHC scrambles a plane today.

[LandoWill]

hmmpf, land o lakes/pasco here, will be interesting to keep an eye on. We have had little to no rain this summer. So that's good, ground isn't saturated