Low Pressure in the Northwest Caribbean Sea (Is Invest 93L)

[Spacecoast]

Ran across this real-time Genesis product.... FWIW, I believe it is GFS-centric.


Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index
The main goal of this project is to develop a disturbance-following tropical cyclone (TC) genesis index (TCGI) to provide forecasters with an objective tool for identifying the 0-48hr and 0-120hr probability of TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. Predictors from a variety of sources were tested and potentially integrated into this new scheme and included Dvorak T-number / CI value estimates, environmental and convective parameters currently used in the NESDIS TC Formation Probability (TCFP) product (fixed grid scheme), environmental parameters from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) that are relevant to TC genesis, and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals from microwave satellites. Six robust TCGI predictors were identified and have been incorporated into an experimental real-time version of TCGI.

[cycloneye]

Code Red

Northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure has developed over the northwestern
Caribbean Sea just off the northeastern coast of Honduras, producing
disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. Environmental
conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system
during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to
form late this weekend or early next week while moving generally
northward over the northwestern Caribbean Sea and eastern Gulf of
Mexico. Interests in the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico, western Cuba,
and Florida should monitor the progress of this system.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

[CronkPSU]

Ran across this real-time Genesis product.... FWIW

https://i.ibb.co/1MfwcW1/ef32.jpg
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index
The main goal of this project is to develop a disturbance-following tropical cyclone (TC) genesis index (TCGI) to provide forecasters with an objective tool for identifying the 0-48hr and 0-120hr probability of TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. Predictors from a variety of sources were tested and potentially integrated into this new scheme and included Dvorak T-number / CI value estimates, environmental and convective parameters currently used in the NESDIS TC Formation Probability (TCFP) product (fixed grid scheme), environmental parameters from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) that are relevant to TC genesis, and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals from microwave satellites. Six robust TCGI predictors were identified and have been incorporated into an experimental real-time version of TCGI.

so this is saying there is NO chance of this developing? that seems...odd...considering a few major models have something developing

[Stratton23]

I would say the GFS, and GEFS are very likely going to bust badly, i wouldnt even bother using that guidance for this system, its actually comical how bad that model has been with genesis this year lol

[MetroMike]

When do we think it will be tagged an Invest?

[cycloneye]

When do we think it will be tagged an Invest?

At anytime they may pull the trigger.

[Spacecoast]

Ran across this real-time Genesis product.... FWIW

https://i.ibb.co/1MfwcW1/ef32.jpg
Tropical Cyclone Genesis Index
The main goal of this project is to develop a disturbance-following tropical cyclone (TC) genesis index (TCGI) to provide forecasters with an objective tool for identifying the 0-48hr and 0-120hr probability of TC genesis in the North Atlantic basin. Predictors from a variety of sources were tested and potentially integrated into this new scheme and included Dvorak T-number / CI value estimates, environmental and convective parameters currently used in the NESDIS TC Formation Probability (TCFP) product (fixed grid scheme), environmental parameters from the Statistical Hurricane Intensity Prediction Scheme (SHIPS) that are relevant to TC genesis, and total precipitable water (TPW) retrievals from microwave satellites. Six robust TCGI predictors were identified and have been incorporated into an experimental real-time version of TCGI.

so this is saying there is NO chance of this developing? that seems...odd...considering a few major models have something developing

It does appear to use the GFS as one of the major inputs, so that explains the 'no chance' output. What seems odd (to me), is that the GFS/GEFS still hasn't hinted at development, and the genesis averse Euro has been very agressive.
You can see other 'swirls' spinning up on the GFS happy hour run, so it's not like it has become suddenly shy.

[SFLcane]

The heck with the gfs… per nhc lol

[StormPyrate]

its quite interesting, did the GFS not get major upgrades this year?
For the NHS to totally ignore it, is wild.

[jlauderdal]

The heck with the gfs… per nhc lol

A rare tossing out the gfs

[SFLcane]

Now can we just get some hwrf going!

[N2FSU]

It's quite obvious the NHC is tossing out the GFS with their increase to a 70% chance of development.

[Sciencerocks]

[Kingarabian]

18z Euro has the 850mb vort attempting to consolidate more NW and over the Yucatan through 72 hours.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Surprised the GFS is struggling so much with this one, normally it's the Euro struggling with these setups and GFS predicting genesis.

[IcyTundra]

Probably not going to happen but I hope that it stalls long enough to miss the trough and we can get some of that moisture to come to Texas. Central Texas coast to the Upper Texas coast is in a extreme drought right now.

[Ianswfl]

NHC 8pm has shifted it slightly eastwawrd and has the X over water now. Seems they think this will consolidate more east.

[GCANE]

Will be interesting to see how this model pans out.
AI based Pangu
Latest run has Tampa Bay taking the hit.

https://charts.ecmwf.int/products/pangu ... 2308300000

[wxman57]

Looks as though there’s a broad low over the borders of El Salvador, Honduras and Nicaragua, might be in the Caribbean by tonight or tomorrow

Shows up clearly on the Euro 850mb vorticity maps. While I'm not inclined to believe the Euro's hurricane hit, I do think it could be a TD/TS. I'll take one of those for SE TX.

Sadly there is one of 50 Euro ensembles through 240 hours that would rain on Houston, and a 941 hurricane as a drought breaker probably isn't a good thing. Houston just broke the record with 109°F and another hour to go up another degree. Someone should start a fire weather page for Texas.

I hear thunder here in SW Houston. Passed about 5 miles to my north along I-10.

[wxman57]

Probably not going to happen but I hope that it stalls long enough to miss the trough and we can get some of that moisture to come to Texas. Central Texas coast to the Upper Texas coast is in a extreme drought right now.

Not much chance of it coming our way.