2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[AnnularCane]

My prediction of three storms for August is looking threatened.

[Category5Kaiju]

I have the perfect song that summarizes what happening right now in the Atlantic (Spongebob fans may know a thing or two about it):

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=q-QVZTKHfuE

[LarryWx]

-With the upgrade of TD6 to Gert, August is already up to 3/0/0.

-Gert now joins Arlene, Bret, Cindy, and Emily as names that go back at least to 1981 and which will return in the 2029 list.

- Arlene at 12 times had already been the most frequently used Atlantic name through 2023. Now it will be back for at least #13.

[Category5Kaiju]

Also something pretty interesting: the EPAC, WPAC, and Atlantic are all now tied with a total of 8 nameable storms so far.

[dexterlabio]

^The Atlantic's eight systems so far this year have amounted to around 20 ACE, while EPAC's 8 storms produced >100 ACE and WPAC with 140 ACE. However, Franklin could increase the ATL's ACE per storm count big time.

[AnnularCane]

Admittedly they've been on the weak side, but I don't know of too many seasons that have produced a set of triplets...followed a day later by a baby brother.

[SFLcane]

This tops it for me frankly now we are waving the flag on 8/21….85% percent of all major hurricanes happen from this point forward. These statements now are getting beyond ridiculous now.

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1693802595330982127

[IcyTundra]

This tops it for me frankly now we are waving the flag on 8/21….85% percent of all major hurricanes happen from this point forward. These statements now are getting beyond ridiculous now.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1693802595330982127?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw

He has a bearish bias we will see if he is right but I doubt it.

[CyclonicFury]

This tops it for me frankly now we are waving the flag on 8/21….85% percent of all major hurricanes happen from this point forward. These statements now are getting beyond ridiculous now.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1693802595330982127?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw

I think Andy is banking too much on a typical Niño shutdown. This season has not behaved like a classic Niño with 5 TCs forming south of 20°N before September. In addition shear has been fairly average across the Caribbean and slightly below average in the MDR.

The late season is heavily ENSO driven but it's not always that simple. We've had quiet Octobers in -ENSO (such as 2007 and 2021) and active Octobers in +ENSO (such as 2014 and 2018). The EPS is showing a big MJO pulse entering the Atlantic some time in early October, so we'll see what the Atlantic does then. In the meantime, the next few weeks should be very busy in the Atlantic.

[AnnularCane]

Things are just getting going but season's over?

Okay...

[Teban54]

This tops it for me frankly now we are waving the flag on 8/21….85% percent of all major hurricanes happen from this point forward. These statements now are getting beyond ridiculous now.

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1693802595330982127?s=61&t=RqDD5BwXxjs761Eobza7sw

I think Andy is banking too much on a typical Niño shutdown. This season has not behaved like a classic Niño with 5 TCs forming south of 20°N before September. In addition shear has been fairly average across the Caribbean and slightly below average in the MDR.

The late season is heavily ENSO driven but it's not always that simple. We've had quiet Octobers in -ENSO (such as 2007 and 2021) and active Octobers in +ENSO (such as 2014 and 2018). The EPS is showing a big MJO pulse entering the Atlantic some time in early October, so we'll see what the Atlantic does then. In the meantime, the next few weeks should be very busy in the Atlantic.

In addition, during the last few La Nina seasons, EPac was often surprisingly active in October and sometimes more so than the Atlantic. 2020 had Cat 4 Marie, 2021 had Cat 1 Pamela and Cat 2 Rick, and 2022 had Cat 4 Orlene and Cat 4 Roslyn. They seemed to be mostly driven by MJO. Who's to say the reverse won't happen in 2023?

[Woofde]

Things are just getting going but season's over?

Okay...

Just 1 day after the bell ring! While staring down Franklin in the Carribean, with a decent shot at becoming a major. Its baffling to say the least.

[chaser1]

Fact of the matter is that this season now sits at 7/1/0. That will likely change to 8/1/0 tomorrow. Maybe Franklin will be the seasons 1st MH, or maybe Franklin will follow Emily and Gert into oblivion. It does seem like a safe bet to assume that the Atlantic will continue to pump out TS's. Just how many of them will simply prove to be Tropical Abortions remain to be seen but i'd be perfectly down for a season of 21/3/0 if it were to happen. And if the strongest named storm to make landfall were limited to 60 mph winds, there'll be plenty of white vinyl lawn chairs sprewn about but the survival rate should be pretty good. As doubtful that season ending numbers such as 21/3/0 may be to occur, feel free to call that active or feel free to call that outcome "dead". In the end, what would it really matter?

So far my four take-away's from this season thus far, are:
1) The "bell" is very real.
2) Super warm SST's are very real.
3) Upper level wind sheer is very real.
4) I'd really enjoy a cold-front right about now.

[NDG]

This will be a season to learn from, after seeing how much the storms that have formed over the past few days have struggled and that the forecasted "better" UL environment keeps being pushed past 7 days I am very confident that there is no way ACE will be above average this season, it may not even get close to average.
El Nino is the bigger Elephant in the room despite a record warm Atlantic/GOM, lower windshear compared to previous El Ninos and early season activity over the MDR.
I am to the point I don't want to believe the models' forecasted strength for a system past 2-3 days, they keep busting. And definitely climate models' forecast over did it early in the season. I hope I am not jinxing it

[REDHurricane]

This will be a season to learn from, after seeing how much the storms that have formed over the past few days have struggled and that the forecasted "better" UL environment keeps being pushed past 7 days I am very confident that there is no way ACE will be above average this season, it may not even get close to average.
El Nino is the bigger Elephant in the room despite a record warm Atlantic/GOM, lower windshear compared to previous El Ninos and early season activity over the MDR.
I am to the point I don't want to believe the models' forecasted strength for a system past 2-3 days, they keep busting. And definitely climate models' forecast over did it early in the season. I hope I am not jinxing it

I think it's still far too early to tell either way. Yeah the strengthening El Niño is going to have at least some significant impact of course, but the fact that we already have 9 named storms by August 22nd to go along with record SSTs could be a sign that El Niño can only do so much to put the lid on the Atlantic.

[NDG]

This will be a season to learn from, after seeing how much the storms that have formed over the past few days have struggled and that the forecasted "better" UL environment keeps being pushed past 7 days I am very confident that there is no way ACE will be above average this season, it may not even get close to average.
El Nino is the bigger Elephant in the room despite a record warm Atlantic/GOM, lower windshear compared to previous El Ninos and early season activity over the MDR.
I am to the point I don't want to believe the models' forecasted strength for a system past 2-3 days, they keep busting. And definitely climate models' forecast over did it early in the season. I hope I am not jinxing it

I think it's still far too early to tell either way. Yeah the strengthening El Niño is going to have at least some significant impact of course, but the fact that we already have 9 named storms by August 22nd to go along with record SSTs could be a sign that El Niño can only do so much to put the lid on the Atlantic.

You can have all the named systems during a season but if they struggle to strengthen despite very warm waters, Kelvin wave passing through, MJO, etc. the Atlantic is being dominated by El Nino in the background despite shear not being as strong as previous Nino years as I have mentioned, will be hard to rack up ACE, even these systems have struggled over the subtropical Atlantic.

[WeatherBoy2000]

This will be a season to learn from, after seeing how much the storms that have formed over the past few days have struggled and that the forecasted "better" UL environment keeps being pushed past 7 days I am very confident that there is no way ACE will be above average this season, it may not even get close to average.
El Nino is the bigger Elephant in the room despite a record warm Atlantic/GOM, lower windshear compared to previous El Ninos and early season activity over the MDR.
I am to the point I don't want to believe the models' forecasted strength for a system past 2-3 days, they keep busting. And definitely climate models' forecast over did it early in the season. I hope I am not jinxing it

Honestly, I think we saw more overperformance than underperformance with this current burst of activity. I don't think people expected all three of the mdr AOIs to form, especially Gert. Franklin remains to be seen if it can perform or not beyond Hispaniola. The only apparent bust out of the lot right now is 92l. It's only August 22nd and there's still a ways to go, and as we've seen in recent years the CV long trackers don't come until September.

[cycloneye]

Wait until September.

 https://twitter.com/BMcNoldy/status/1693949575768297763

[Kingarabian]

This will be a season to learn from, after seeing how much the storms that have formed over the past few days have struggled and that the forecasted "better" UL environment keeps being pushed past 7 days I am very confident that there is no way ACE will be above average this season, it may not even get close to average.
El Nino is the bigger Elephant in the room despite a record warm Atlantic/GOM, lower windshear compared to previous El Ninos and early season activity over the MDR.
I am to the point I don't want to believe the models' forecasted strength for a system past 2-3 days, they keep busting. And definitely climate models' forecast over did it early in the season. I hope I am not jinxing it

ACE will be above average over the next few weeks. NS is already running above average. I don't think anyone was expecting 2005, 2017, or 2020. But it's certainly no 2009.

[gatorcane]

This will be a season to learn from, after seeing how much the storms that have formed over the past few days have struggled and that the forecasted "better" UL environment keeps being pushed past 7 days I am very confident that there is no way ACE will be above average this season, it may not even get close to average.
El Nino is the bigger Elephant in the room despite a record warm Atlantic/GOM, lower windshear compared to previous El Ninos and early season activity over the MDR.
I am to the point I don't want to believe the models' forecasted strength for a system past 2-3 days, they keep busting. And definitely climate models' forecast over did it early in the season. I hope I am not jinxing it

You hit the nail on the head with this post. El Niño is definitely the elephant in the room this season and I like to think of it as “lurking in the shadows” whenever the Atlantic has tried to get things going so far. You can see its impacts already with the flurry of systems mostly just being sheared and dissipating. We will see if Franklin can buck the trend but it likely will need to be out of the hostile Caribbean MDR before doing so. Also note how El Niño has impacted the long-wave pattern with a weaker than normal Bermuda High the majority of this summer. It takes some trough to yank Franklin out as far south as he is, normally you don’t see that kind of trough until October/November.