2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[IsabelaWeather]

I get that he thinks el nino is going to dominate the atlantic basin but this is definently downcasting and just a ridiculous statement.

I don’t think it’s a ridiculous statement at all. Think it’s quite plausible we go another August without a named storm. Conditions are just not good out there and I don’t for see that changing even as we head through peak season. Dry air will let up and should allow some development in the cracks in the wall of shear that will only become more prevalent as the season continues thanks to El Nino and the relentless parade of TUTT’s that are almost sure to come. I’m not saying no storms this season or season canceling but I definitely think those above average season outlooks are out the window. Below average is the most likely scenario imo based on what we have in front of us. Of course everyone interprets signals differently, just sharing my view point. If you look at the MJO graph on the CPC sight you can clearly see El Nino coupling with the atmosphere in the last month. The MJO was very progressive until mid July then it anchored itself in Phase 7-8 and has been there ever since. Rising air has also been over the Atlantic since the beginning of the month as someone else alluded to earlier in the discussion yet shear seems to have actually increased out there as we head through the month. Just what I see.

People said the exact same thing after Earl became post-tropical last year, and that's after an actual storm-free August and Earl massively busting. We know how that turned out.

Calling for another storm-free August when we have 4 active AOIs - one of which (99L) has been claimed by weather enthusiasts to look like a TD already - is indeed ridiculous.

His severe bias is showing, just a week ago there was nothing, and now we have much more moisture, and convection than then and we arent even to bell ringing day. I think endless posts about nothing happening is very premature to say the least. It doesn't even seem like a fair viewpoint when conditions have improved as much as they have and how we have already had 5 TC's.

Its just crazy seeing this year after year before we even get to the main part of the season.

Overall so far there has been less SAL's, warmer water than usual and less shear than usual.

[CyclonicFury]

While the MDR hasn't produced a TC yet in July or August, I do think it's about to really take off (at least east of the Caribbean). Record warm SSTs, below-average shear, and above-average mid level RH is a recipe for an active MDR over the next month or so. We're seeing models try to develop numerous different waves. SAL and climo have been a big inhibitor for a while, but with all these disturbances likely moistening up the MDR and climo becoming more favorable, I'd be shocked if we don't see several MDR storms (including a couple hurricanes) over the next several weeks.

[tolakram]

Nothing is ridiculous, in fact calling opinions ridiculous is how we get a bunch of people all thinking the same thing. Let's see what happens.

Look at the daily runs of each model, I've never seen so much inconsistency. It makes perfect sense to this non-forecaster brain. You have incredibly good conditions EXCEPT el nino running upper air interference. Even that is below normal for an el nino year. Get some vorticity in the right place for long enough and we will get a storm.

[SFLcane]

Typical Andy Hazelton. I don't know how a pro met could season cancel so much when we have so many signals across the basin.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1692627920169140492?s=20

This would be so incredibly unlikely that every current AOI would have to bust, plus the CAG-like system, plus all future waves for the next 13 days.

Frankly the repetitive nature on social media daily is quite annoying. All it takes is one to find the right conditions close to were you live. We are just getting started this season

[Category5Kaiju]

Typical Andy Hazelton. I don't know how a pro met could season cancel so much when we have so many signals across the basin.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1692627920169140492?s=20

This would be so incredibly unlikely that every current AOI would have to bust, plus the CAG-like system, plus all future waves for the next 13 days.

Frankly the repetitive nature on social media daily is quite annoying. All it takes is one to find the right conditions close to were you live. We are just getting started this season

To be honest, I'd consider Andy as a "conditional bear." What I mean by that is his default nature is to be skeptical of a season going bonkers/producing crazy storms, but when signs fall into place of such happening (and of course when they actually do happen), he does become much more serious. I remember this specifically when he was monitoring Ian. Some trackers are bullish by nature, and some are bearish by nature. But once a season is over, I think they can all reach some sort of agreement on the overall performance

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Typical Andy Hazelton. I don't know how a pro met could season cancel so much when we have so many signals across the basin.

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1692627920169140492?s=20

This would be so incredibly unlikely that every current AOI would have to bust, plus the CAG-like system, plus all future waves for the next 13 days.

I get that he thinks el nino is going to dominate the atlantic basin but this is definently downcasting and just a ridiculous statement.

I don't think that statement is unrealistic at all. Last year was active and had no storms whatsoever in August. We're tracking a ton of systems, but almost all of the models are bearish on their output.

We appear to be heading to somewhere in the ballpark of 14-16 named this season. I think that's impressive for a moderate El Nino year.

[Ntxw]

Atlantic should see some chances. Rising motion heading over to the favored regions (Africa - IO) at least in the short to intermediate term. Beyond that we'll have to see what the low freq Nino standing wave does but at least the window will be open for a time.

[Landy]

One day before the bell rings.

[Extratropical94]

6 simultaneous AOIs isn't something you see everyday

[chaser1]

Nothing is ridiculous, in fact calling opinions ridiculous is how we get a bunch of people all thinking the same thing. Let's see what happens.

Look at the daily runs of each model, I've never seen so much inconsistency. It makes perfect sense to this non-forecaster brain. You have incredibly good conditions EXCEPT el nino running upper air interference. Even that is below normal for an el nino year. Get some vorticity in the right place for long enough and we will get a storm.

Those of us who have been around for quite some time can attest to certain years where endless days and weeks during July, August and in fewer years even September presented an Atlantic that seemed barren of moisture, or an extremely southward suppressed ITCZ, or that occasional overextended stay by Uncle Sal. Even weirder (to me), does anyone recall those few years where healthy disturbances would launch off the African coastline and convectively march themselves all the way across the MDR and into the Caribbean, with most never showing the slightest evidence of turning at any level?? Jeez, was THAT exasperating for those who simply enjoy watching the evolutionary process of genesis occur. It's kind of wild to see how each season unfolds and presents it's unique swag LOL. This year, it would seem that you can't keep disturbances from spinning; Practically everything displays some level of vorticity. Heck, it's getting to a point where I'll log onto Tidbits satellite page, hit the link displaying the entire N. Atlantic.... and half expect to see Hispaniola or Iceland turning counterclockwise. So here we are on the eve of "Gray Tropical Bell Day" with the very reasonable prospect of us seeing 2 or 3 newly named storms between now and end of month. Given how we seem to have areas of low pressure expected to develop, mid or upper-level areas of shear-induced areas of disturbed weather, and a string of tropical waves extending across the MDR it certainly wouldn't shock me to see four newly minted storms develop by Sept. 1st. Over the years we've seen plenty of tropical depressions and storms develop under less than ideal conditions and in a somewhat sheared environment, even if many remained weak, disorganized or short-lived. We've seen inactive months of August as a result of seemingly dessert like conditions throughout the tropics before yet not necessarily representative of a robust September and October. Be honest though. With all of the strong disturbances out there now, wouldn't you be a little surprised if none of them developed into a NS? If that were to occur, I think this would be telling. No "season-cancel", and still a very real risk of a deadly landfall... but quite possibly an average to below average season under a slowly increasingly coupling El Nino impact.

[IcyTundra]

Nothing is ridiculous, in fact calling opinions ridiculous is how we get a bunch of people all thinking the same thing. Let's see what happens.

Look at the daily runs of each model, I've never seen so much inconsistency. It makes perfect sense to this non-forecaster brain. You have incredibly good conditions EXCEPT el nino running upper air interference. Even that is below normal for an el nino year. Get some vorticity in the right place for long enough and we will get a storm.

Yeah I agree it's good to have different opinions. I should have said that his statement that the Atlantic might have 0 tropical cyclones for the rest of August was unlikely to pan out in my opinion.

[gatorcane]

Not surprisingly the Atlantic looks like it will become more active as we head into the last week in August and as we head towards the climo peak. Here at 168 hours, the 18Z GFS pretty much depicts my thoughts on this season from the beginning: 1) active EPAC due to El Niño 2) quiet Gulf and Caribbean due to El Niño (though we would still see sheared systems moving through those regions) and 3) big storms way out in the Atlantic with threats to the US around the mid-Atlantic northward as well as SE Canada and Bermuda due to a weaker than normal Bermuda High and above normal Atlantic SSTs:

[SFLcane]

https://x.com/wxtca/status/169303929729 ... jITqDzKFmQ

[Steve]

Not surprisingly the Atlantic looks like it will become more active as we head into the last week in August and as we head towards the climo peak. Here at 168 hours, the 18Z GFS pretty much depicts my thoughts on this season from the beginning: 1) active EPAC due to El Niño 2) quiet Gulf and Caribbean due to El Niño (though we would still see sheared systems moving through those regions) and 3) big storms way out in the Atlantic with threats to the US around the mid-Atlantic northward as well as SE Canada and Bermuda due to a weaker than normal Bermuda High and above normal Atlantic SSTs:

https://i.postimg.cc/d0m1w996/gfs-mslp-pcpn-atl-28.png

Mostly agree. Looks almost like ACE will double in the next 2 1/2 weeks or so.

[Teban54]

Bell-ringing day!

Further updates possible later in the day.

[Mouton]

Please keep in mind Andrew, with an A as in first, was a August 25th 0f 1992 landfall in Florida. It only takes one.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/Matthew12418302/status/1693121772059873518




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1693128245640929702

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 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1693215063606206793




 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1693232642945409215




From now until about the 10th of Sep looks rather favorable for above average Atlantic activity. This period will likely determine how well these above average activity forecasts verify. Imo this could be kind of like 2018 again, another el nino season where a relatively short window of favorable conditions allowed for a lot of activity in September and even into October:




.

[Category5Kaiju]

Emily just formed.

Take that, 2022 (*in all seriousness, I always found it hard to believe that 2023 would have a nameless August like last year; it really takes a lot of unusual, unfoavorable factors to have something like that happen)

[Woofde]

Significantly less dust and dry air out there compared to 2 weeks ago, though it does still exist. Pretty much right on climatological queue the Atlantic is waking up. With multiple named storms and likely a couple hurricanes in the next few days, those predictions of a quiet August are likely to bust.

[Ntxw]

Looks like we will get that sub-seasonal movement. Even though it's not a strong signal, it's enough to get some things going. The only adverse is the competing Nino 3 and 1+2 areas in terms of rising motion. Models only go out to about early Sept in regards. Aug 20-Sept 10 might be the best time for the Atlantic. I think 30-50 ACE is possible during this time.



After that natural progression would extrapolate back into the Pacific and by then the Nino will be stronger than now.