EPAC: HILARY - Post-Tropical - Discussion
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Core definitely seems small enough to not be a major inhibitor. Barring an ERC, this has a very good chance at >=130 knots.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
CB has rotated to upshear to downshear and back quickly and smoothed out the CDO some. Would like that to continue and the CDO to expand radially.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Hilary has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery. The
eye, which is becoming better defined, is surrounded by very cold
cloud tops in the CDO. There are numerous convective banding
features, especially over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over all but the
northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Recent objective Dvorak
T-numbers support an intensity of about 95 kt, which is used for
this advisory.
The hurricane continues to move on a west-northwestward track with
an initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Global models indicate
that a mid-tropospheric ridge currently situated to the north of
Hilary will shift eastward over the next few days while a cutoff
low remains near the California coast. This should result in a
steering pattern that will cause the system to gradually turn
toward the northwest, north-northwest, and north with increasing
forward speed during the next 72 hours. The official forecast
track has not changed much from the past few advisory packages, and
is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
solutions. Since the forecast track is roughly paralleling the
coastline north of the central Baja peninsula to the California
border, it nearly impossible to know at this point if the
center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before
reaching the southwestern United States.
Hilary is over very warm waters, near 30 deg C, with extremely
low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to low-level atmospheric
environment. Therefore additional intensification is highly
likely for the next day or so. The various SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities of
RI during the next day or so. The most likely indicated intensity
increase is around 25 kt over the next 24 hours, which is also shown
in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters
and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official
wind speed forecast remain near or above latest HCCA guidance. The
surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5
forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a
forecast track over the southwestern United States.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California
Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from
Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak
this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is
possible with the potential for significant impacts.
2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula and
hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area on Friday.
4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Hilary has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery. The
eye, which is becoming better defined, is surrounded by very cold
cloud tops in the CDO. There are numerous convective banding
features, especially over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over all but the
northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Recent objective Dvorak
T-numbers support an intensity of about 95 kt, which is used for
this advisory.
The hurricane continues to move on a west-northwestward track with
an initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Global models indicate
that a mid-tropospheric ridge currently situated to the north of
Hilary will shift eastward over the next few days while a cutoff
low remains near the California coast. This should result in a
steering pattern that will cause the system to gradually turn
toward the northwest, north-northwest, and north with increasing
forward speed during the next 72 hours. The official forecast
track has not changed much from the past few advisory packages, and
is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
solutions. Since the forecast track is roughly paralleling the
coastline north of the central Baja peninsula to the California
border, it nearly impossible to know at this point if the
center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before
reaching the southwestern United States.
Hilary is over very warm waters, near 30 deg C, with extremely
low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to low-level atmospheric
environment. Therefore additional intensification is highly
likely for the next day or so. The various SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities of
RI during the next day or so. The most likely indicated intensity
increase is around 25 kt over the next 24 hours, which is also shown
in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters
and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official
wind speed forecast remain near or above latest HCCA guidance. The
surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5
forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a
forecast track over the southwestern United States.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California
Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from
Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak
this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is
possible with the potential for significant impacts.
2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula and
hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area on Friday.
4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Hurricane Hilary Discussion Number 6
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Hilary has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery. The
eye, which is becoming better defined, is surrounded by very cold
cloud tops in the CDO. There are numerous convective banding
features, especially over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over all but the
northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Recent objective Dvorak
T-numbers support an intensity of about 95 kt, which is used for
this advisory.
The hurricane continues to move on a west-northwestward track with
an initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Global models indicate
that a mid-tropospheric ridge currently situated to the north of
Hilary will shift eastward over the next few days while a cutoff
low remains near the California coast. This should result in a
steering pattern that will cause the system to gradually turn
toward the northwest, north-northwest, and north with increasing
forward speed during the next 72 hours. The official forecast
track has not changed much from the past few advisory packages, and
is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
solutions. Since the forecast track is roughly paralleling the
coastline north of the central Baja peninsula to the California
border, it nearly impossible to know at this point if the
center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before
reaching the southwestern United States.
Hilary is over very warm waters, near 30 deg C, with extremely
low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to low-level atmospheric
environment. Therefore additional intensification is highly
likely for the next day or so. The various SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities of
RI during the next day or so. The most likely indicated intensity
increase is around 25 kt over the next 24 hours, which is also shown
in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters
and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official
wind speed forecast remain near or above latest HCCA guidance. The
surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5
forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a
forecast track over the southwestern United States.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California
Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from
Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak
this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is
possible with the potential for significant impacts.
2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula and
hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area on Friday.
4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP092023
300 PM MDT Thu Aug 17 2023
Hilary has an impressive appearance on satellite imagery. The
eye, which is becoming better defined, is surrounded by very cold
cloud tops in the CDO. There are numerous convective banding
features, especially over the eastern semicircle of the
circulation. Upper-level outflow is well-defined over all but the
northwestern quadrant of the circulation. Recent objective Dvorak
T-numbers support an intensity of about 95 kt, which is used for
this advisory.
The hurricane continues to move on a west-northwestward track with
an initial motion estimate of 300/13 kt. Global models indicate
that a mid-tropospheric ridge currently situated to the north of
Hilary will shift eastward over the next few days while a cutoff
low remains near the California coast. This should result in a
steering pattern that will cause the system to gradually turn
toward the northwest, north-northwest, and north with increasing
forward speed during the next 72 hours. The official forecast
track has not changed much from the past few advisory packages, and
is a blend of the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus
solutions. Since the forecast track is roughly paralleling the
coastline north of the central Baja peninsula to the California
border, it nearly impossible to know at this point if the
center will remain just offshore or move over the peninsula before
reaching the southwestern United States.
Hilary is over very warm waters, near 30 deg C, with extremely
low vertical wind shear and a moist mid- to low-level atmospheric
environment. Therefore additional intensification is highly
likely for the next day or so. The various SHIPS rapid
intensification (RI) indices continue to show high probabilities of
RI during the next day or so. The most likely indicated intensity
increase is around 25 kt over the next 24 hours, which is also shown
in the NHC forecast. Later in the forecast period, cooler waters
and land interaction should result in some weakening. The official
wind speed forecast remain near or above latest HCCA guidance. The
surface circulation is likely to be dissipated by day 5, but a day 5
forecast point (as a remnant low) is still provided to maintain a
forecast track over the southwestern United States.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. Heavy rainfall associated with Hilary may produce areas of flash
flooding and result in landslides over portions of Baja California
Peninsula from late Friday into late Sunday. Rainfall impacts from
Hilary within the Southwestern United States are expected to peak
this weekend into Monday. Flash, urban, and arroyo flooding is
possible with the potential for significant impacts.
2. The threat of hurricane-force wind impacts is increasing along
the west-central coast of the Baja California Peninsula and
hurricane watches could be issued for a portion of that area
tonight. Tropical storm conditions are expected to spread across
the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula by late Friday
where a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect.
3. The threat of significant wind impacts continues to increase for
the northern portions of the Baja California Peninsula and the
Southwestern United States, especially in areas of mountainous
terrain. Although it is too soon to determine the location and
magnitude of these impacts, interests in these areas should monitor
the progress of Hilary and updates to the forecast. Watches could
be issued for portions of this area on Friday.
4. Large swells from Hilary will spread northward along the coast
of southwestern Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These
swells will reach the Gulf of California and northern portions of
the Baja California Peninsula later this weekend.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 17/2100Z 16.1N 108.9W 95 KT 110 MPH
12H 18/0600Z 17.0N 110.4W 110 KT 125 MPH
24H 18/1800Z 18.4N 112.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
36H 19/0600Z 20.3N 113.0W 120 KT 140 MPH
48H 19/1800Z 22.4N 113.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
60H 20/0600Z 25.0N 114.5W 105 KT 120 MPH
72H 20/1800Z 28.5N 115.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
96H 21/1800Z 35.4N 118.4W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
120H 22/1800Z 43.0N 120.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
It’s remarkable how well Hilary has consolidated in just the last 30-36 hours, even better than Adrian. Its structure looks pretty good for continued RI until either it hits cooler waters or starts an EWRC. However, the presence of those bands beyond the now-compact core raises the chances for an EWRC to start.
95 kt might be a little bit of an underestimate. At the rate Hilary is organizing, I expect 110-120 kt at 11pm.
95 kt might be a little bit of an underestimate. At the rate Hilary is organizing, I expect 110-120 kt at 11pm.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
It has been 84 years for California with a landfall.
https://twitter.com/AmandaMSlate/status/1692291736280682744
https://twitter.com/AmandaMSlate/status/1692291736280682744
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CrazyC83
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
I haven't been on here in a while as I've been busy with work, school and all that. But this is quite something - an actual tropical threat for California. The eastern deserts (Palm Springs to Yuma) are certainly in for a mess with years' worth of rain. I know it's so tough to predict the winds given the offshore flow and weakening as it departs.
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
A lot of today has been spent working on the inner core structure. It's there. Should see some colder tops tonight into tomorrow and intensify. Recon should be fun in the morning.
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The above post and any post by Ntxw is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by any professional institution including Storm2k. For official information, please refer to NWS products.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Imagine if there was a typical El Nino +PMM. Could've been a stronger landfall.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Currently moving west of forecast. CDO is there, just waiting on the eue to warm. Will potentially yield a 6.5-7.0 once the eye flips positive.
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
She's about to take off.
UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2023 Time : 214020 UTC
Lat : 16:12:00 N Lon : 109:11:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.7mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.3 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2023 Time : 214020 UTC
Lat : 16:12:00 N Lon : 109:11:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.7mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.3 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
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CrazyC83
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Ntxw wrote:She's about to take off.UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.1
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm
----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 17 AUG 2023 Time : 214020 UTC
Lat : 16:12:00 N Lon : 109:11:24 W
CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.6 / 950.7mb/104.6kt
Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.6 6.3 6.5
Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR :N/A km
Center Temp : -6.9C Cloud Region Temp : -71.1C
Scene Type : EYE
Subtropical Adjustment : OFF
Extratropical Adjustment : OFF
Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING
Ocean Basin : EAST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method
Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 1.3T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF
Based on the latest appearance, 110 kt would be my guess for the intensity (pressure 949 mb).
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Also in this region, noticed that recon can find these weaker than what Dvorak suggests.
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cycloneye
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
Kingarabian wrote:Also in this region, noticed that recon can find these weaker than what Dvorak suggests.
Why weaker?
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
This is rotating fast. Given structure, I think mid-grade Category 4 is a decent bet but it's also ERC prone with that banding structure.
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Kingarabian
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Also in this region, noticed that recon can find these weaker than what Dvorak suggests.
Why weaker?
Not sure to be honest but we've seen it off by 5-10kts.
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Yellow Evan
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Re: EPAC: HILARY - Hurricane - Discussion
cycloneye wrote:Kingarabian wrote:Also in this region, noticed that recon can find these weaker than what Dvorak suggests.
Why weaker?
Only storms that I can recall as such being weaker than Dvorak suffered from upwelling its cold wake due to its storm motion. Most of the cases where Dvorak overestimates are TCs under high tropopause enviroments common in the wintertime but this is not applicable here.
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