Texas Summer 2023

[jasons2k]

Update from Jeff Lindner:

Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for all of the area today into the weekend.

After a brief reprieve of drier air into the region late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, southerly winds have returned along with muggy dewpoints and a more humid air mass will continue to move into the area from the south today. With the ridge of high pressure building back across Texas today into the weekend afternoon high temperatures will push into the 100-107 degree range for inland areas. Heat index values of 108-116 degrees will be common across the area today into the weekend.

College Station has recorded 38 straight days at 100 or above (previous record was 30 in 1998)
BUSH IAH has recorded 18 straight days at 100 or above (record is 33 in 2011)

Critically dry conditions remain across the entire area and fire weather concerns are in place. Luckily, generally light winds of 5-10mph are helping hinder rapid forward progression on any fires even with extremely low afternoon humidity values of less then 25% in many areas. Similar conditions with an increase in humidity are expected into the weekend and early next week.

Gulf of Mexico:
A weak tropical wave located north of Puerto Rico this morning will move westward toward the southern Bahamas and southern FL over the next 2-3 days. This wave has disorganized areas of convection associated with it at this time. The wave axis will move into the southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday and then come under the influence of building high pressure over the Midwest which will result in a west to west-northwest track across the Gulf of Mexico toward the western or northwest Gulf coast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.

Global forecast models along with some of their ensemble members continue to indicate the potential for a broad and weak surface reflection to develop with this wave. The guidance clustering is generally toward the lower and middle Texas coast with the ECWMF on the northern end of the guidance and the CMC on the south end. Overall, there has been little change in the various global solutions over the last 24 hours with development chances or track.

While upper level winds look generally favorable for development along with very warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, lingering dry air along the US Gulf coast combined with the fast forward motion of the wave may hinder development. Conditions appear to become most favorable just prior to landfall along the Texas coast and development if any may be very near the coast just prior to landfall, in part due to the board nature of the wave interacting with the concave curvature of the Texas coast.

Regardless, if the feature makes landfall as a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm the impacts will be nearly the same….much needed rainfall for parched areas of coastal Texas and possibly inland central and southwest Texas. Moisture will start to increase as early as late Sunday, but more likely into Monday and Tuesday especially along the coast. How much ground the sprawling high pressure over the Midwest gives will determine how far inland rain chances will extend.

Given the various uncertainties at play it is best to monitor forecasts daily.

National Hurricane Center indicates a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Monday-Wednesday period:

Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1

[weatherdude1108]

I fear my next water bill. All I appear to be doing right now is providing water for the cockroaches and other insects. The grass is still getting scorched, even after a 30 minute watering.

I would suggest watering less frequently, but for longer duration when you do, which will soak the ground deeper and promote deeper root growth for your grass. Surface soil moisture in this heat will evaporate much faster than moisture a bit deeper. Although, with this drought and with this heat, you will still likely see heat stress due to the ambient air temperature no matter what you do.

That has been happening to my Squash, Cucumbers, Zucchini, and Watermelons despite the frequent watering.

As far as the grass, it may have something to do with the soil. I'm not sure what the soil is like where you are, but if it's too sandy, it'll dry out fast, but if a lot of clay, it's harder to infiltrate at first, but when it does, it retains it more. In my yard, have lots of clay and there are some spots where the bermuda and native grasses have taken over the places where the St. Augustine has died because it is just too sunny, and chinch bugs got to it (could see chinch bugs scurrying out when I hand-watered those crispy spots).

You may try adding a layer or so of compost as a top-dressing on the grass. Probably not right now because it's too hot and it'll burn it even more. But come fall and/or spring, adding compost should help it out, can't hurt.

I throw out some compost once a year on my lawn to help with drainage and retention. Grass responds, and it can go longer with not as much water, and still looks green, even in this 105+ blast furnace hell hole we have had these past couple months down here.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi/status/1692182718547681442

[Portastorm]

Two words: BRING IT!

[Shoshana]

El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.

I believe 1980 was the worst.

1980 for intensity, and 2011 for duration

2023? Well, it's a "El Nino that never came"

Was in Dallas for 1980, Austin for 2011. 1980 had 42 100+ days in a row, Austin is up to 40 as of yesterday with no end in sight yet. 2022 Austin had 90 days 100+ not near that this year but Austin has had 2 105+ streaks of 11 days. So 2011 was hot longer and was drier over all, this year is more intense over a shorter span. At the time, 1980 seemed worse because we weren’t having this happen so often.

[dpep4]

:uarrow: Two words: BRING IT!

But being serious for a moment, a lot of people in Houston and along the Texas and Louisiana coast can no longer find any company to insure their home, and the Fed option only covers flooding, not wind or wind-driven rain. I certainly feel for the ag interests affected by this drought, but a strong hurricane just affects a whole lot more people.

For me, if it is coming across the gulf, bring it after September.

[Ntxw]

Call me a skeptic, I would love for the Euro to verify with the rains...but it's so hard to believe the disturbance is going to bust into the monstrous 600dm ridge. That thing is made of the same stuff wxman57's wall is. Deep south Texas I can see it happening for.

[gpsnowman]

Call me a skeptic, I would love for the Euro to verify with the rains...but it's so hard to believe the disturbance is going to bust into the monstrous 600dm ridge. That thing is made of the same stuff wxman57's wall is. Deep south Texas I can see it happening for.

Agreed. I mean, the tropics rarely impact North Texas with lesser obstacles. This is one monster heat ridge with millions under it. I do hope the Texas coast into Louisiana can benefit. They certainly have been rain starved like the rest of us. We just gotta wait our turn amid a very bleak and dry outlook for the rest of August.

[Cpv17]

:uarrow: Two words: BRING IT!

But being serious for a moment, a lot of people in Houston and along the Texas and Louisiana coast can no longer find any company to insure their home, and the Fed option only covers flooding, not wind or wind-driven rain. I certainly feel for the ag interests affected by this drought, but a strong hurricane just affects a whole lot more people.

For me, if it is coming across the gulf, bring it after September.

Hurricane season typically ends in Texas after mid to late September.

[Portastorm]

:uarrow: Two words: BRING IT!

But being serious for a moment, a lot of people in Houston and along the Texas and Louisiana coast can no longer find any company to insure their home, and the Fed option only covers flooding, not wind or wind-driven rain. I certainly feel for the ag interests affected by this drought, but a strong hurricane just affects a whole lot more people.

For me, if it is coming across the gulf, bring it after September.

At this rate I wouldn't worry too much if I were you. As Tireman mentioned "Don" the other day ... this could be Don Part II. Even if this system develops some it's going into a massive high pressure ridge and a land area parched from drought and broiling from excessive heat. I'm skeptical that it will even make much of a difference for us. We need something to break the pattern and the cycle and I doubt that comes from the Gulf of Mexico this year.

[Brent]

Even up here this could be our worst heat of the summer. First time we've had no rain chances at all

Yeah I wouldn't hold your breath down there on significant tropical impacts anytime soon despite whatever the models show

[Tejas89]

As mentioned Austin is really trouncing the previous record for consecutive 100+ days. Also of note is how many recent years are at the top of the all time list. Yowza.

2023 (41 and counting)
2011 (27, 2nd place)

There are 8 other summers since 2000 with a position in the top 14 for this kind of streak. (So far).

[Portastorm]

As mentioned Austin is really trouncing the previous record for consecutive 100+ days. Also of note is how many recent years are at the top of the all time list. Yowza.

2023 (41 and counting)
2011 (27, 2nd place)

There are 8 other summers since 2000 with a position in the top 14 for this kind of streak. (So far).

As others have said already ... what makes this year different from 2011 is that the intensity of this summer's heat is unlike anything we have ever seen. It basically came on in late June and hasn't stopped. We've also set a record for most highs of 105 degrees or more. I thought 2011 was the worst ... and it was awful with so many 100-degree days but those were spread out between May thru September. But this year just feels even worse.

[weatherdude1108]

As mentioned Austin is really trouncing the previous record for consecutive 100+ days. Also of note is how many recent years are at the top of the all time list. Yowza.

2023 (41 and counting)
2011 (27, 2nd place)

There are 8 other summers since 2000 with a position in the top 14 for this kind of streak. (So far).

I've noticed 1925 shows up a lot for heat records in Austin. We've broken some of those 1925 records already. Some are still standing. I don't know what was going on back then to cause such a heat wave as far as the ENSO state, PDO, etc.

[DallasAg]

DFW sitting at 108 as of 3:00p. This summer seems like our daily high temps have been occurring later in the day than most summers (just my perception). Lots of cases we peak closer to 5:00 than normally I think of 3:00-4:00 being the max. Might make a run at 110, if not today then tomorrow.

Not sure I buy the hourly reports coming out of Comanche. Currently 116F, and they've had a lot of days this summer > 110F. Feels a little off, even being in a region where they're naturally going to be a little hotter.

Agree with the others about the comparisons to 2011. For DFW even with 71 days >= 100, only 19 were >= 105. This summer DFW has already had 16 (including today), with surely more to come.

Bottom line: this sucks. Sept (probably mid-Sept at that) needs to get here. Stat.

[Ntxw]

As mentioned Austin is really trouncing the previous record for consecutive 100+ days. Also of note is how many recent years are at the top of the all time list. Yowza.

2023 (41 and counting)
2011 (27, 2nd place)

There are 8 other summers since 2000 with a position in the top 14 for this kind of streak. (So far).

I've noticed 1925 shows up a lot for heat records in Austin. We've broken some of those 1925 records already. Some are still standing. I don't know what was going on back then to cause such a heat wave as far as the ENSO state, PDO, etc.

Good catch 1925 is a viable ENSO analog. Similar east heavy El Nino driven event. Not quite as strong as this year but a lesser version. -PDO first half of that year until September.

[HockeyTx82]

We have been under a no watering order for two weeks and it doesn't end until September 15th, as of today, out here in Ponder.

Yards are drying up quickly and people are seeing some indicators of foundation shifting.

[Yukon Cornelius]

114 at 4:00

[weatherdude1108]

We have been under a no watering order for two weeks and it doesn't end until September 15th, as of today, out here in Ponder.

Yards are drying up quickly and people are seeing some indicators of foundation shifting.

Not sure about up there, but there was a story on our local news about foundations shifting around here, and they said that foundation watering is exempt from most municipal water restrictions. I went ahead and bought a soaker hose the other day and ran it about 12 to 18 inches from the foundation around my house. No issues so far, but don't want to take a chance. The guy with a foundation company said a soaker hose 15 minutes a day three times a week is sufficient, and you don't want to necessarily spray the foundation (I have done it) because it causes uneven moisture around house, causing swelling on one side and shrinking on another, rather than an even soaking all over with a soaker hose.

[dpep4]

Probably a good idea to keep the gas tanks full, in case we get an extended power outage. I'm not expecting that, but if it happens could get serious real quick for some.