Here is an update from local met Jeff Lindner with details about the gulf system:
Excessive Heat Warnings and Heat Advisories for all of the area today into the weekend.
After a brief reprieve of drier air into the region late Tuesday through Wednesday evening, southerly winds have returned along with muggy dewpoints and a more humid air mass will continue to move into the area from the south today. With the ridge of high pressure building back across Texas today into the weekend afternoon high temperatures will push into the 100-107 degree range for inland areas. Heat index values of 108-116 degrees will be common across the area today into the weekend.
College Station has recorded 38 straight days at 100 or above (previous record was 30 in 1998)
BUSH IAH has recorded 18 straight days at 100 or above (record is 33 in 2011)
Critically dry conditions remain across the entire area and fire weather concerns are in place. Luckily, generally light winds of 5-10mph are helping hinder rapid forward progression on any fires even with extremely low afternoon humidity values of less then 25% in many areas. Similar conditions with an increase in humidity are expected into the weekend and early next week.
Gulf of Mexico:
A weak tropical wave located north of Puerto Rico this morning will move westward toward the southern Bahamas and southern FL over the next 2-3 days. This wave has disorganized areas of convection associated with it at this time. The wave axis will move into the southeast/eastern Gulf of Mexico late Sunday into early Monday and then come under the influence of building high pressure over the Midwest which will result in a west to west-northwest track across the Gulf of Mexico toward the western or northwest Gulf coast by Tuesday or Wednesday of next week.
Global forecast models along with some of their ensemble members continue to indicate the potential for a broad and weak surface reflection to develop with this wave. The guidance clustering is generally toward the lower and middle Texas coast with the ECWMF on the northern end of the guidance and the CMC on the south end. Overall, there has been little change in the various global solutions over the last 24 hours with development chances or track.
While upper level winds look generally favorable for development along with very warm Gulf of Mexico water temperatures, lingering dry air along the US Gulf coast combined with the fast forward motion of the wave may hinder development. Conditions appear to become most favorable just prior to landfall along the Texas coast and development if any may be very near the coast just prior to landfall, in part due to the board nature of the wave interacting with the concave curvature of the Texas coast.
Regardless, if the feature makes landfall as a tropical wave, tropical depression, or weak tropical storm the impacts will be nearly the same….much needed rainfall for parched areas of coastal Texas and possibly inland central and southwest Texas. Moisture will start to increase as early as late Sunday, but more likely into Monday and Tuesday especially along the coast. How much ground the sprawling high pressure over the Midwest gives will determine how far inland rain chances will extend.
Given the various uncertainties at play it is best to monitor forecasts daily.
National Hurricane Center indicates a 30% chance of tropical cyclone formation in the Monday-Wednesday period:
Jeff Lindner
Director Hydrologic Operations Division/Meteorologist
Harris County Flood Control District
9900 Northwest Freeway | Houston, Texas 77092
346-286-4000 (main) | 346-286-4165 (direct) | 281-924-2091 (cell)
jeff.lindner@hcfcd.org | Twitter: @jefflindner1