Texas Summer 2023

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Cpv17
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#981 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 15, 2023 4:51 pm

Nederlander wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
cstrunk wrote:The last few runs of the GFS continue to look very bleak for much, if any, rain across most of Texas for the next 2+ weeks. Maaaaybe coastal/STX gets something from a gulf system, but even that is in question.

Texas in now the new NM/AZ. I dont remember what grass even looks like after the past 2 summers.

El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.


I believe 1980 was the worst.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#982 Postby Edwards Limestone » Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:19 pm

Most models still showing a low pressure system moving in from the gulf around 8/23. GFS 18z looking kind of encouraging maybe.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#983 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:25 pm

The effects of the -PDO may last until Fall
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#984 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 15, 2023 5:25 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Texas in now the new NM/AZ. I dont remember what grass even looks like after the past 2 summers.

El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.


I believe 1980 was the worst.

1980 for intensity, and 2011 for duration

2023? Well, it's a "El Nino that never came"
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#985 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Aug 15, 2023 6:22 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.


I believe 1980 was the worst.

1980 for intensity, and 2011 for duration

2023? Well, it's a "El Nino that never came"

For real. I don’t know how to explain it, but I feel almost claustrophobic looking at the gfs, like the heat is just never going to end. I make sure to remind myself how poor the gfs performs at longer range to keep it in check lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#986 Postby IcyTundra » Tue Aug 15, 2023 7:11 pm

New lemon in the gulf for that tropical wave some of us have been talking about.

Western Gulf of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure could form in the central or western
Gulf of Mexico by the beginning of next week. Some slow development
of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally
westward, potentially nearing the western Gulf of Mexico coastline
in about a week.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#987 Postby Ntxw » Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:00 pm

There's a nearly 600dm death ridge setting up this weekend across the US. Whatever is in the gulf is likely to be shoved well south...

On the other end 110+ will be popping up across the heart of the state. Granddaddy heat ridge..UGH.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#988 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:15 pm

Ntxw wrote:There's a nearly 600dm death ridge setting up this weekend across the US. Whatever is in the gulf is likely to be shoved well south...

On the other end 110+ will be popping up across the heart of the state. Granddaddy heat ridge..UGH.
We need rain badly!!!!
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#989 Postby Cpv17 » Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:19 pm

We’ve hit 104°F here the past couple days and that’s just absurd for my area, only being one hour away from the Gulf. I wanna say in 2009 or 2011 was the last time it’s been that hot down here.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#990 Postby Iceresistance » Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:22 pm

Ntxw wrote:There's a nearly 600dm death ridge setting up this weekend across the US. Whatever is in the gulf is likely to be shoved well south...

On the other end 110+ will be popping up across the heart of the state. Granddaddy heat ridge..UGH.

The Super Cockroach Death Ridge! The GFS keeps it alive for the entire run, which is unusual for an El Nino year
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#991 Postby starsfan65 » Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:26 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:There's a nearly 600dm death ridge setting up this weekend across the US. Whatever is in the gulf is likely to be shoved well south...

On the other end 110+ will be popping up across the heart of the state. Granddaddy heat ridge..UGH.

The Super Cockroach Death Ridge! The GFS keeps it alive for the entire run, which is unusual for an El Nino year
It ain't going to get that hot.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#992 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Tue Aug 15, 2023 10:52 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:There's a nearly 600dm death ridge setting up this weekend across the US. Whatever is in the gulf is likely to be shoved well south...

On the other end 110+ will be popping up across the heart of the state. Granddaddy heat ridge..UGH.

The Super Cockroach Death Ridge! The GFS keeps it alive for the entire run, which is unusual for an El Nino year
It ain't going to get that hot.

It’s already been that hot here this summer with less helping it.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#993 Postby tajmahal » Tue Aug 15, 2023 11:30 pm

Cpv17 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:Texas in now the new NM/AZ. I dont remember what grass even looks like after the past 2 summers.

El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.


I believe 1980 was the worst.


Depends on where one lives in Texas. For the Austin area, 2011 was worst, followed by 2022 and 2009. Looks like 2023 will finish no worse than second on Austin Camp Mabry's list of hottest summers on record.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#994 Postby tajmahal » Tue Aug 15, 2023 11:33 pm

starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
Ntxw wrote:There's a nearly 600dm death ridge setting up this weekend across the US. Whatever is in the gulf is likely to be shoved well south...

On the other end 110+ will be popping up across the heart of the state. Granddaddy heat ridge..UGH.

The Super Cockroach Death Ridge! The GFS keeps it alive for the entire run, which is unusual for an El Nino year
It ain't going to get that hot.

I'd appreciate you guys not using cockroach in this way. During the Rwanda genocide Tutsis were
labeled as cockroaches, and the ruling Hutus were encouraged to slaughter them.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#995 Postby tajmahal » Tue Aug 15, 2023 11:39 pm

Ntxw wrote:There's a nearly 600dm death ridge setting up this weekend across the US. Whatever is in the gulf is likely to be shoved well south...

On the other end 110+ will be popping up across the heart of the state. Granddaddy heat ridge..UGH.


Southern Texas is going to be underneath that ridge, which will feature moist, deep, and easterly and
southeasterly flow and a chance of organized tropical activity reaching as far north as 30°N.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#996 Postby tajmahal » Tue Aug 15, 2023 11:47 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.


I believe 1980 was the worst.

1980 for intensity, and 2011 for duration

2023? Well, it's a "El Nino that never came"


Way too impatient. None of the climate experts predicted El Niño weather conditions for NA this summer. There's good science behind the Australian Bureau of Meteorology's not declaring that El Niño has arrived.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#997 Postby Cpv17 » Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:31 am

Iceresistance wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:
Nederlander wrote:El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.


I believe 1980 was the worst.

1980 for intensity, and 2011 for duration

2023? Well, it's a "El Nino that never came"


Haha I feel this! It sure does seem that way. Back in May I was expecting at least average rainfall for Texas this summer. Yet I haven’t recorded anything measurable the entire summer so far.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#998 Postby Iceresistance » Wed Aug 16, 2023 6:43 am

tajmahal wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The Super Cockroach Death Ridge! The GFS keeps it alive for the entire run, which is unusual for an El Nino year
It ain't going to get that hot.

I'd appreciate you guys not using cockroach in this way. During the Rwanda genocide Tutsis were
labeled as cockroaches, and the ruling Hutus were encouraged to slaughter them.

I'm gonna be honest I actually did not know that
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Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!

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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#999 Postby cstrunk » Wed Aug 16, 2023 8:16 am

Nederlander wrote:
Yukon Cornelius wrote:
cstrunk wrote:The last few runs of the GFS continue to look very bleak for much, if any, rain across most of Texas for the next 2+ weeks. Maaaaybe coastal/STX gets something from a gulf system, but even that is in question.

Texas in now the new NM/AZ. I dont remember what grass even looks like after the past 2 summers.

El Niño ? Where? I agree Yukon. I’ve never seen anything like this. It’s unbearable… it’s probably not but it seems worse than 2011.


Depends on where you are, but 2011 encompassed more area into severe drought. This year, while bad in many places, the worst is more confined to central and south TX.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#1000 Postby SoupBone » Wed Aug 16, 2023 8:50 am

tajmahal wrote:
starsfan65 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:The Super Cockroach Death Ridge! The GFS keeps it alive for the entire run, which is unusual for an El Nino year
It ain't going to get that hot.

I'd appreciate you guys not using cockroach in this way. During the Rwanda genocide Tutsis were
labeled as cockroaches, and the ruling Hutus were encouraged to slaughter them.


Wait, what? What does this have to do with weather? And because of this event, no one can use the word cockroach again? :roll:
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