Texas Summer 2023

[Yukon Cornelius]

Wichita Falls. I’m guessing downburst or straight line winds. This is just the tip of the iceberg for damage. It’s bad here. Edit- just heard it was circulating downbursts.

[Tireman4]

No end in sight for SE Texas, yet...


000
FXUS64 KHGX 111140
AFDHGX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Houston/Galveston TX
640 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday Night)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Very hot conditions will continue to prevail as we close out the
week and head into the weekend, where the prospect of heat stress
will remain the primary weather concern. A robust and persistent
midlevel ridge continues to remain in place over the South Central
CONUS, showing little sign of breaking down for the time being. As
such, we remain in what should effectively be a persistence forecast
for the next few days. An Excessive Heat Warning has been expanded
further towards the coast based on observed conditions today, with
highs along and north of the I-10 corridor expected to reach around
105 in many locations. Areas closer to the immediate coast will see
the persistence of mid 70s to low 80s dew point values over the
course of the day, yielding maximum heat index values as high as 115
this afternoon. A very similar outlook is anticipated on Saturday,
and given this the Warning has also been extended in time until
Saturday evening. Around Matagorda Bay, slightly lower high
temperatures will produce heat index values of around 110-112, thus
keeping this region within a Heat Advisory over the same time frame.
Heat precautions should be taken regardless.

Overnight lows will continue to struggle to dip below 80, and will
hover around 85 along the immediate coast. This will likely be aided
by the presence of scattered clouds during the overnight period as
we have seen over the past few days.

Aside from the chance of a very isolated storm offshore during the
morning hours tomorrow, we do not anticipate any new rainfall during
the short term period.

Cady

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Thursday)
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Continued hot & humid. Shortwave dropping esewd into the nctl US
and toward the Great Lakes/Midwest partially erodes western
periphery of the ridge across the cntl & east Gulf Coast states in
the early-mid parts of next week. Locally, 500mb heights will
fall from ~597dm to around 594dm and H85 temps drop a few degrees
as the center of the ridge repositions to our w/nw. Ambient temps
should fall a touch...but still be well above climo and around or
above the century mark.

In regards to rain chances...guidance shows some higher PW`s tracking
inland from the Gulf and pooling south of a weak frontal boundary
that could sag closer or partially into the area Tue-Wed. Subsidence
still looks like a significant limiting factor for rain/convection
for most of us, so will maintain the already advertised low chances
for now (and hope the more bullish models come to fruition). 47

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAF Issuance)
Issued at 635 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Scattered MVFR cigs continue to prevail this morning as we have
seen over the past few days. These cigs should dissipate over the
next 2-3 hours with moderate SSW winds developing by late morning.
Wind gusts of 20 knots or higher will once again be possible
during the day. Winds will shift slightly to the south by early
evening, relaxing as MVFR cigs once again begin to develop around
midnight.

Cady

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

A fairly typical summertime marine pattern will prevail with light
to moderate onshore winds prevailing. Speeds will generally be
highest at night in the Gulf and during the day in the bays. Rain
chances will remain close to zero through the weekend, and only
slight chances early next week. 47

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 332 AM CDT Fri Aug 11 2023

Elevated to critical fire weather conditions remain a concern today.
A Red Flag Warning has been re-issued for portions of the Brazos
Valley, where wind speeds of around 15 mph with higher gusts and
minimum RH values of around 25% remain in the forecast. Elevated
fire conditions persist to the east of this region, where RH values
will be similarly low but wind speeds will be slightly lighter.
Nonetheless, these areas will need to continue to be monitored for
a possible expansion of the Warning in the next few days.

Cady

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
College Station (CLL) 106 79 105 78 / 0 0 0 0
Houston (IAH) 104 83 104 81 / 0 0 10 0
Galveston (GLS) 94 85 92 84 / 0 0 10 0

&&

.HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
TX...Excessive Heat Warning until 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ163-164-
176>179-195>200-210>214-227-237-238-300-313-337-338-438-439.

Red Flag Warning from 1 PM this afternoon to 10 PM CDT this
evening for TXZ195>197.

Heat Advisory until 10 PM CDT Saturday for TXZ226-235-236-335-
336-436-437.

High Rip Current Risk through this evening for TXZ436>439.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Cady
LONG TERM....42
AVIATION...Cady
MARINE...42

[Tireman4]

The average daily high for Austin Mabry just ticked up to 106 (105.7) for this month. The *average*. Ugh.

Our average daily high at Bush is a cool 102

AV102.0

[Texas Snowman]

I wonder what the record for the average daily max temperature (for an individual month) is in Texas?

In Wichita Falls, the avg. daily max in July 1980 looks to be 106.74 degrees.

Need to do some research on that this weekend…

[Cpv17]

I wonder what the record for the average daily max temperature (for an individual month) is in Texas?

In Wichita Falls, the avg. daily max in July 1980 looks to be 106.74 degrees.

Need to do some research on that this weekend…

Wichita Falls might be the hottest place in the entire state. Possibly even hotter than some places along the Rio Grande.

[rwfromkansas]

Larry Cosgrove said his summer forecast was largely right about heat. I didn’t buy it at the time, but it was. He says we may hit 2nd hottest. Yay.

He sees change in September finally.

[Yukon Cornelius]

I wonder what the record for the average daily max temperature (for an individual month) is in Texas?

In Wichita Falls, the avg. daily max in July 1980 looks to be 106.74 degrees.

Need to do some research on that this weekend…

Wichita Falls might be the hottest place in the entire state. Possibly even hotter than some places along the Rio Grande.

We’ve been the hottest location in the country a few different times this summer.

[Yukon Cornelius]

Another photo from last nights wind damage. How does this even happen?!

[Cpv17]

I wonder what the record for the average daily max temperature (for an individual month) is in Texas?

In Wichita Falls, the avg. daily max in July 1980 looks to be 106.74 degrees.

Need to do some research on that this weekend…

Wichita Falls might be the hottest place in the entire state. Possibly even hotter than some places along the Rio Grande.

We’ve been the hottest location in the country a few different times this summer.

Yeah, it’s weird to me. Never understood why it’s so much hotter there.

[bubba hotep]

Wichita Falls. I’m guessing downburst or straight line winds. This is just the tip of the iceberg for damage. It’s bad here. Edit- just heard it was circulating downbursts.
[url]https://i.ibb.co/TgzQzpp/IMG-3765.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/M1g4MGc/IMG-3766.jpg [/url]
[url]https://i.ibb.co/tQTPw4h/IMG-3764.jpg [/url]

Prayers for those folks. I noticed that cell last night looking pretty nasty after it went through a few mergers and outflow interactions.

[Ntxw]

I did a little digging and one explanation could be that WF, Northwest Texas (not panhandle) seems to be lower elevation than the surrounding land. You can see higher elevation wrapping around this region in a "C" shape. This creates a valley of sorts carved additionally by the Red River. Valleys with down sloping winds (further warming), even more so when southwest winds + desert adds to the misery.







Then the climate there is relatively arid compared to further east closer to I-35 and higher ground abutting to the south prevents 'cooling' return flow from the gulf. Further that they aren't high enough elevation like west Texas or the panhandle to benefit from that kind of cooling mechanism. So during heatwaves WF-Abilene-Childress and SW Oklahoma is often the oven of the region it seems.

So as usual it's geography/topography that determines the climate!

The same occurs for DFW and Austin on a smaller scale, with down sloping SW winds, where max temps in heat waves are often hotter than further south places such as Houston and San Antonio.

[bubba hotep]

Hmmm, might need to start watching the Gulf during the last week of the month.

[Cpv17]

Hmmm, might need to start watching the Gulf during the last week of the month.

What do you think of the 12z EPS?

Dang, 18z GEFS too for that matter. But it’s long range so I wouldn’t worry much about it yet.

[Brent]

The heat is one thing but this humidity has been persistent all summer... Tulsa had a heat index of 115 earlier

93/80 still at 8pm when is fall

[horns0314]

I wonder what the record for the average daily max temperature (for an individual month) is in Texas?

In Wichita Falls, the avg. daily max in July 1980 looks to be 106.74 degrees.

Need to do some research on that this weekend…

Wichita Falls might be the hottest place in the entire state. Possibly even hotter than some places along the Rio Grande.

In my opinion the hottest is Llano. Sits on all that granite and always over 105 every day in the heart of the the summer.

[Iceresistance]

Unexpected thunderstorm right over me right now

[Iceresistance]

I had an extremely close lighting strike that scared the crap out of me at 6:34 AM. I saw it hit a tree to my east in my property.

[bubba hotep]

"Cold" front might actually get DFW a below normal day for both highs and lows first part of next week. Then it is back to 105+... ugh. No real sign of this heat ending, but at some point, climo will start working.

[Ntxw]

"Cold" front might actually get DFW a below normal day for both highs and lows first part of next week. Then it is back to 105+... ugh. No real sign of this heat ending, but at some point, climo will start working.

Low 70s in the morning will give us that sweet taste of freedom...only to be yanked quickly.

One step at a time.

[DallasAg]

"Cold" front might actually get DFW a below normal day for both highs and lows first part of next week. Then it is back to 105+... ugh. No real sign of this heat ending, but at some point, climo will start working.

Low 70s in the morning will give us that sweet taste of freedom...only to be yanked quickly.

One step at a time.

Seeing that DFW is on the cusp of setting the record for most consecutive hours > 80F, anything that starts with a 7 will be welcome, even if only for a couple of mornings.

Yesterday I drove from Crested Butte, CO, back to Dallas. 46F and light rain when I left CB, already 97 by the time I hit Amarillo at 1:00 CDT. Rain into some rain just west of Childress and watched the temp drop from 109 to 81 over the course of just a couple of miles, only to see it bounce back to 113 near Vernon.

Heartbreaking scenes near Wichita Falls. 287 was closed due to wildfires on both sides of the road near Iowa Park. Massive smoke plumes, fueled by breezy winds and temps in the 111-113 range. We were diverted off 287 to the south and right through storm damaged areas south of Iowa Park. Multiple power poles blown over, roofs missing, large trees down, even grain silos blown over. Not a great week for Wichita County. Meanwhile we could look just to the north on the other side of the Red River and see the storms prompting severe thunderstorm and flash flood warnings. So close and yet so far.

Hopefully NW Texas will get some relief very soon.