Texas Summer 2023

[South Texas Storms]

With today being DFW’s 31st day over 100, and 17th consecutive, this summer is starting close in on the top ranks. With each of the next 10 days forecast to exceed 100, we would move into the following rankings if that verifies:
-10th all time for most days at or above 100
-4th for longest consecutive days over 100

Given that any real sort of relief before the end of the month is looking less likely, I could see us moving into 5th or 6th for total days and 3rd for consecutive days.

And to think after last year's 47 days >= 100 I thought we'd get a break for a few years. It seems pretty likely we'll catch or pass that mark at this point.

We really got spoiled by 2014-2021 (with the exception of 2018). Mild summers comparatively speaking, 3 years in that stretch had 10 or fewer 100 degree days, and all except 2018 had fewer 100 degree days than normal. Even 2018 doesn't look so bad now...23 days >= 100.

Cold PDO can really drive this whatever the ENSO. 1998-2000, 2008-2012, 2022-?

Yeah I really think the PDO is the biggest driver of our overall longer term weather patterns. Thankfully it's warming up right now...hopefully priming us for a much needed wet winter and spring.

[dpep4]

Average schmaverage, a typical DFW summer has us complaining about heat deep into September. I'd be shocked if that doesn't happen this year.

[starsfan65]

Average schmaverage, a typical DFW summer has us complaining about heat deep into September. I'd be shocked if that doesn't happen this year.

hate the Heat!!!!!!

[cstrunk]

Outflow from the OK/AR storms yesterday kept us at 95F for yesterday's high... almost felt chilly! Back to the low-100's for the next 7 days...

[bubba hotep]

00z Euro shows basically no rain for Texas for the next 10 days... Creeping towards a flame thrower September.

[weatherdude1108]

00z Euro shows basically no rain for Texas for the next 10 days... Creeping towards a flame thrower September.

A few days ago, the GFS was showing a tropical system moving over south and central Texas during the week of the 14th or 21st of August (can't remember)(?). Showed 5 inches of rain around here. Was exciting! The next run, it went POOF.

[starsfan65]

00z Euro shows basically no rain for Texas for the next 10 days... Creeping towards a flame thrower September.

We need rain badly.

[weatherdude1108]

The 12Z GFS has my area in the 100s until August 21st, when it's in the 90s. A string of 90s for several days (maybe 80s one day), then back to 102 on the 25th (lala land) at the end of the run.

Which I had something more exciting to talk about.

[weatherdude1108]

From the CPC. One can dream, right?


Despite odds favoring above-normal
temperatures, conditions should cool off somewhat relative to the previous
week, potentially bringing an end to the period of excessive heat observed
during the past several weeks, especially across the southern CONUS.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/ ... xus06.html

[weatherdude1108]

I think the EWX is even getting tired of the same ole same ole.

I some extra plastic plant tray saucers in the shed. I used four of them to fill with water and put out in my backyard to help out any wildlife that is passing through. This pattern is not friendly to anything or anyone.

000
FXUS64 KEWX 091839
AFDEWX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
139 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

Mid-level high pressure will continue to dominate over Texas through
the coming short term period. Surface high pressure over the Gulf of
Mexico will keep the low level flow from the south to southeast
reinforcing the hot airmass. Skies will be mostly clear overnight
and temperatures will continue to be very warm. Lows Thursday
morning will be in the 70s to lower 80s. We will continue to see
breezy winds during the evening. Highs Thursday will be close to a
repeat of the last few days with most locations in the triple digits
and only a few spots in the Hill Country possibly remaining in the
upper 90s. Thursday night will be another repeat with mostly clear
skies and very warm temperatures. We will extend the Excessive Heat
Warning and Heat Advisory through Thursday.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through Wednesday)
Issued at 137 PM CDT Wed Aug 9 2023

We`ve run out of superlatives to describe the current weather
situation. It`s still very hot. It`s still very dry. The risk for
wildfires and heat health concerns will remain very high into the
weekend, and are unlikely to improve significantly beyond that
through the next 1-2 weeks. And given the extended time period we`ve
been in this mess, the risk for complacency may increase.

Not much new can be said about the weather situation. Subtropical
ridging will continue to hold true over the southern tier of the US,
with H5 height anomalies increasing this weekend and maximizing
nearby during the first half of next week. The good news is that we
do expect some improvement (reduction) in surface wind speeds by
Monday, which could help somewhat in the Fire Weather department,
however it also appears we`ll see even lower afternoon RH values so
fire danger will remain high. As we`ve seen over the past 2 weeks or
so it doesn`t take much for fires to start and spread with fuels as
dry as they are. This heightened fire weather threat is unlikely to
go away over the next 2 weeks despite some improvement early next
week.

&&

[Yukon Cornelius]

Hottest day of the year so far. 113. But really when it’s 108-110 every single day, is there really much difference?

[cstrunk]

Hottest day of the year so far. 113. But really when it’s 108-110 every single day, is there really much difference?

Not much of a difference between 113F and 103F to me.

Seems like a much bigger difference between 95F yesterday and 105F today (so far), where I'm at.

[KatDaddy]

A Severe Thunderstorm Watch issued just N of Dallas-Ft Worth. Up here in Roanoke so I might see and beautiful sunset and a well needed thunderstorm. fingers crossed.

[dpep4]

Watching the line of storms blowing up to the west, from Possum Kingdom Lake to Ballinger. Carly Simon's 'Anticipation' is playing. Cued up is Howard Jones to sing, "You can stick your foot in the pool, but you can't have a swim...."

[rwfromkansas]

Sure they will all collapse just right before DFW.

[HockeyTx82]

Sure they will all collapse just right before DFW.

[youtube]https://youtu.be/TfE93xON8jk[/youtube]

[funster]

Wut. Hmmm

 https://twitter.com/wfaaweather/status/1689451680499421184

[bubba hotep]

Storms seem to be overperforming. About to break the whiskey out and head on to the deck!

[gpsnowman]

Storms seem to be overperforming. About to break the whiskey out and head on to the deck!

Yes they are. I've missed Brad Barton and his severe weather updates from the NWS on tv. Heard him twice already while watching MLB Strikezone.

[somethingfunny]

The cool outflow breeze feels nice. Might get a few sprinkles here in the next few minutes