2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[CyclonicFury]

Although wind shear was slightly above average in the Caribbean in July overall, the 200mb wind in the MDR and Caribbean was much more easterly than the composite of recent Niño Julys, indicating comparatively light upper-level flow. Especially near 50W-60W. If that persists, we may not see TCs get ripped apart east of the Lesser Antilles but a bit farther west.

[WeatherBoy2000]

 https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1687563958025166848

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1687781102960685056

[cycloneye]

Squashed:

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687836392301219841




 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687845571392921601

[Spacecoast]

https://twitter.com/WxTca/status/1687563958025166848

In order to quantify anomalies, the definition of a normal baseline is required.
It's intriguing that Deelan uses a 'sliding climotology' from 1950-2023 as a baseline. I would be interested to know more details about this method......

It seems there are many definitions of what is a 'normal' baseline for SST's:

CCI/UM uses 1971-2000 climo for SST maps, and 1982-2011 for SST graphs
CU uses 1981-2010 climo for it's AMO Index
NOAA Coral Reef uses 1991-2020 climo for it's SST maps

Why these baselines are used seems arbitrary....
Of course, no matter what method is used, 2023 has record breaking, anomalously high SST's, but assigning values to anomalies depends on a reference point for normality. It would be nice to be able to compare values from the different maps / charts, but that is not valid.
I am assuming that the absolute, actual temps are the same across all sources, so maybe that is what is really important.

Like inflation, the fact that prices are higher than previous years is not surprising, it is expected.
What's important is the rate of change.....

Squashed:
Each month, the seasonal model generates 51 plausible solutions or ensembles.

Are the seasonal models still using only 51 members??

[WeatherBoy2000]

Squashed:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687836392301219841

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687845571392921601

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687843526287994881




Latest EC forecast doesn't include August.

[SFLcane]

Squashed:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687836392301219841

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687845571392921601

Hey Luis Nothing is squashed lol ecmwf forecast a month ahead in advance so this is for September and on. 1.3 the normal ACE for september through november. it's still very hyperactive.

 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687843526287994881

[cycloneye]

Squashed:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687836392301219841

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687845571392921601

Hey Luis Nothing is squashed lol ecmwf forecast a month ahead in advance so this is for September and on. 1.3 the normal ACE for september through november. it's still very hyperactive.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687843526287994881?s=20

Yes, I later, saw the forecast is from September 1.

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/EricBlake12/status/1687527449381269504

[gatorcane]

Squashed:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687836392301219841

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687845571392921601

Hey Luis Nothing is squashed lol ecmwf forecast a month ahead in advance so this is for September and on. 1.3 the normal ACE for september through november. it's still very hyperactive.

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687843526287994881?s=20

Yea but I think the ECMWF is more realistic than the CFS favorable conditions forecast for the Caribbean. I think conditions could be favorable in August but September and especially October the effects of El Niño should start to be more noticeable with higher wind shear across the Caribbean. That is not to stay we won’t get some big storms further out in the Atlantic but you would think the El Niño would keep things in check across the Caribbean and even the Gulf (to some extent). Most of South Florida strikes are from the south but conditions should not be favorable there which you would think lowers our risk this year (unless something strikes from the east which is not as common).

[Spacecoast]

GFS showing a little bit of Caribbean shear

[LarryWx]

The last few runs of the CFS have been showing significant negative anomalies of shear over the Caribbean throughout August and into the first part of September even in the face of a strengthening El Niño. Does anyone feel that the CFS is out to lunch? I sure hope it is because otherwise this could be a scary month into early September considering the very warm MDR. If that were to occur, hopefully there will be a tendency for recurvature east of the Lesser Antilles and into the C Atlantic.

[weeniepatrol]

Easterlies prevail over the Caribbean, currently

[gatorcane]

:eek: The last few runs of the CFS have been showing significant negative anomalies of shear over the Caribbean throughout August and into the first part of September even in the face of a strengthening El Niño. Does anyone feel that the CFS is out to lunch? I sure hope it is because otherwise this could be a scary month into early September considering the very warm MDR. If that were to occur, hopefully there will be a tendency for recurvature east of the Lesser Antilles and into the C Atlantic.

Taking look at the 768 hour CFS this morning, some activity for August with a recurving system well east of the Lesser Antilles in about 10 days (maybe the same one the GFS is picking up in the long-range), but just some weak waves as we approach the peak in September. You would think that if those negative anomalies are real, we would see some more significant activity on the long-range CFS but we are not:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

[Teban54]

 https://twitter.com/srmullens/status/1687963620146040832

[Category5Kaiju]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1688118676212363264




Good discussion thread by Danny from this morning. In my view, I think we are in the time of the year where models haven't exactly adjusted to the changing Atlantic basin pattern (but might at some point in the very near future).

[LarryWx]

:eek: The last few runs of the CFS have been showing significant negative anomalies of shear over the Caribbean throughout August and into the first part of September even in the face of a strengthening El Niño. Does anyone feel that the CFS is out to lunch? I sure hope it is because otherwise this could be a scary month into early September considering the very warm MDR. If that were to occur, hopefully there will be a tendency for recurvature east of the Lesser Antilles and into the C Atlantic.

Taking look at the 768 hour CFS this morning, some activity for August with a recurving system well east of the Lesser Antilles in about 10 days (maybe the same one the GFS is picking up in the long-range), but just some weak waves as we approach the peak in September. You would think that if those negative anomalies are real, we would see some more significant activity on the long-range CFS but we are not:

https://www.pivotalweather.com/model.ph ... &dpdt=&mc=

But before that one is the midmonth nonrecurver that hits the NE Caribbean on 8/11. Hopefully that one stays weak as is depicted on this run. Fingers crossed.

[Steve]

Squashed:

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687836392301219841

https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1687845571392921601

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1687843526287994881

Latest EC forecast doesn't include August.

Derek with that backhand upside arrogant Weatherbell’s head.

[REDHurricane]

CFS Weekly (regardless of how reliable it may or may not be) is still forecasting a somewhat concerning steering setup through the peak of the season:

[Category5Kaiju]

For those who believe that El Nino is already here and going to do a number on the Atlantic hurricane season (which is why nothing is forming at the moment)....that isn't necessarily the case:

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1688396829564502016




Seems like at this point, early August climo hostility seems to be the main culprit