WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Yellow Evan]

Rotating upshear again for now.

[Yellow Evan]

Tropopause of about -80C would explain the unusually deep convection. It is typically around -70C in mid-summer in this area of the world.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Advisory Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

...DORA RE-INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 500 AM HST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 133.3W
ABOUT 1535 MI...2470 KM E OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1670 MI...2685 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...115 MPH...185 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...963 MB...28.44 INCHES




Hurricane Dora Discussion Number 20
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
500 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

The increase in Dora's organization that started just before the
last advisory has continued during the last several hours, with a
cloud-filled eye becoming more persistent in a central dense
overcast with some cloud top temperatures colder than -80C. The
various satellite intensity estimates are now in the 95-120 kt
range, and the initial intensity is increased to a possibly
conservative 100 kt.

Dora continues moving westward or 265/16 kt along the southern side
of a deep-layer ridge to the north. This ridge is expected to build
westward, which should induce a somewhat faster forward speed while
it passes well south of Hawaii early next week. The track guidance
is still tightly clustered and has changed little since the
previous advisory, and the new track forecast is almost the same as
the previous forecast.

The easterly shear that occurred yesterday seems to be decreasing,
with that decrease probably allowing the re-intensification.
During the next 48-72 h, the center of Dora should be in a
light-shear environment with sea surface temperatures of 26-27C.
While there is still some spread, the intensity guidance
indicates that the current intensification should end in the next
6-12 h, followed by a gradual weakening. This part of the
intensity forecast follows the guidance and is a little above the
intensity consensus. After 72 h, the hurricane is expected to move
over increasing sea surface temperatures, but also move into a
drier air mass. In addition, some westerly vertical shear could
develop by 120 h. However, the guidance spread becomes quite
large, with the GFS- and ECMWF-based SHIPS models showing a
significantly higher intensity than the dynamical models. This
part of the intensity forecast will show a slow weakening, but will
lean more towards the SHIPS models than the dynamical models.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1500Z 13.3N 133.3W 100 KT 115 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W 100 KT 115 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W 95 KT 110 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

NNNN

[ScottNAtlanta]

So, this would be named Dora all the way across? SSTs do nothing but get warmer along it's path.

[Cyclenall]

Forward speed is impressive with Dora, I was looking for that tool that shows similar tracks to what is forecast here. No idea what its called or if its available for the Epac basin. The late period forecast is highly uncertain, for all we know she could be a CAT4 instead of 70 knots 5 days from now.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye has reached OW with CDO quickly symmetrizing. Category 4 inbound?

[Yellow Evan]

[Kingarabian]

https://media.discordapp.net/attachments/733552978572869632/1137427873750323312/IMG_9239.gif

Eye has reached OW with CDO quickly symmetrizing. Category 4 inbound?

Overshooting tops wont let the eye sustain it seems

[Ntxw]

Pretty tenacious system so far sustaining cold tops -70C+ given the troubled area it is in this year, SW movement will continue these bursts I think. When it goes poleward s/sw of Hawaii it will have the shot at c5 and a more sustained eye, assuming conditions allow.

[cycloneye]

Pretty tenacious system so far sustaining cold tops -70C+ given the troubled area it is in this year, SW movement will continue these bursts I think. When it goes poleward s/sw of Hawaii it will have the shot at c5 and a more sustained eye, assuming conditions allow.

Will it mantains until the dateline is the question, because if it does, the ACE will be on the roof. Hector 2018 got 50.3 in 13 days.

[Hurricane2022]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dora Special Advisory Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
800 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

...MAJOR HURRICANE DORA STRENGTHENS SOME MORE...
...FORECAST TO MOVE INTO THE CENTRAL PACIFIC BASIN ON SUNDAY...


SUMMARY OF 800 AM HST...1800 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...13.3N 134.2W
ABOUT 1480 MI...2380 KM ESE OF SOUTH POINT HAWAII
ABOUT 1725 MI...2775 KM WSW OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...125 MPH...205 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 265 DEGREES AT 18 MPH...30 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...955 MB...28.20 INCHES

Again!

[cycloneye]

Yikes.

Hurricane Dora Special Discussion Number 21
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP052023
800 AM HST Sat Aug 05 2023

Dora has continued to intensify during the past few hours, and
based on the latest satellite intensity estimates the initial
intensity is increased to 110 kt. Some additional strengthening
could occur in the next 6-12 h. This special advisory is being
issued to raise the initial intensity, and to increase the forecast
intensities at 12, 24, and 36 h.

No changes are being made to the track forecast or wind radii
forecast at this time.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/1800Z 13.3N 134.2W 110 KT 125 MPH
12H 06/0000Z 13.2N 135.8W 115 KT 130 MPH
24H 06/1200Z 13.0N 139.3W 105 KT 120 MPH
36H 07/0000Z 12.8N 143.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 07/1200Z 12.5N 146.7W 85 KT 100 MPH
60H 08/0000Z 12.4N 150.5W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 08/1200Z 12.3N 154.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
96H 09/1200Z 12.5N 162.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
120H 10/1200Z 13.5N 170.0W 70 KT 80 MPH

$$
Forecaster Beven

[Hurricane2022]

[Ntxw]

Pretty tenacious system so far sustaining cold tops -70C+ given the troubled area it is in this year, SW movement will continue these bursts I think. When it goes poleward s/sw of Hawaii it will have the shot at c5 and a more sustained eye, assuming conditions allow.

Will it mantains until the dateline, because if it does, the ACE will be on the roof. Hector got 50.3 in 13 days.

If it maintains at or near major ~100kts average, if you look at the Euro it will still be around a week from now then it can gain another 25-30 units. Already 15.5 so greater than 40 is possible.

[Sciencerocks]

[cycloneye]

TXPZ21 KNES 051823
TCSENP

A. 05E (DORA)

B. 05/1800Z

C. 13.3N

D. 134.0W

E. ONE/GOES-W

F. T6.0/6.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W AND EMBEDDED IN B RESULTS IN AN E#
OF 5.5 WITH EADJ +0.5 FOR A DT OF 6.0. EYE HAS BECOME MORE DEFINED LAST
6 HR. UPR-LVL OUTFLOW GOOD ALQDS. MET AND PT=6.0. FT BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KONON

[cycloneye]

115 kt.

EP, 05, 2023080518, , BEST, 0, 133N, 1340W, 115, 950, HU

[Yellow Evan]

GFS and ECMWF greatly diverge on shear after today, with the GFS showing strong westerly mid-level shear that would cap its intensity in the 70-90 knot range until it enters the WPAC. ECMWF has faster ML flow and slower trades which would lead to a lower shear vector but has not handled Dora well so far at all.

[Astromanía]

It is already one of the most impressive storms in this basin, and the definition of el Niño on EPAC