Texas Summer 2023

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Edwards Limestone
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#801 Postby Edwards Limestone » Thu Aug 03, 2023 12:18 pm

somethingfunny wrote:In a summer like this, I don't trust any storm in the Gulf to bring "relief". Most of us remember Lee in 2011. We don't talk about Don, but Lee.... that was a hard lesson to learn.


Agree. West of I-45 a landfalling tropical system into Louisiana may well actually fuel wildfires in SC TX with the hot, dry winds on the backside- just as you said TS Lee did in 2011.

That's what fueled the huge Bastrop fire that burned 34,000 acres...let's hope nothing like that happens again anytime soon.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#802 Postby Brent » Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:49 pm

Edwards Limestone wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:In a summer like this, I don't trust any storm in the Gulf to bring "relief". Most of us remember Lee in 2011. We don't talk about Don, but Lee.... that was a hard lesson to learn.


Agree. West of I-45 a landfalling tropical system into Louisiana may well actually fuel wildfires in SC TX with the hot, dry winds on the backside- just as you said TS Lee did in 2011.

That's what fueled the huge Bastrop fire that burned 34,000 acres...let's hope nothing like that happens again anytime soon.


Yeah I wouldn't get my hopes up til the EPAC storms start recurving unfortunately. Near or into Louisiana storms do nothing for us but more heat at the very least
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#803 Postby Cpv17 » Thu Aug 03, 2023 1:54 pm

Brent wrote:
Edwards Limestone wrote:
somethingfunny wrote:In a summer like this, I don't trust any storm in the Gulf to bring "relief". Most of us remember Lee in 2011. We don't talk about Don, but Lee.... that was a hard lesson to learn.


Agree. West of I-45 a landfalling tropical system into Louisiana may well actually fuel wildfires in SC TX with the hot, dry winds on the backside- just as you said TS Lee did in 2011.

That's what fueled the huge Bastrop fire that burned 34,000 acres...let's hope nothing like that happens again anytime soon.


Yeah I wouldn't get my hopes up til the EPAC storms start recurving unfortunately. Near or into Louisiana storms do nothing for us but more heat


Ensembles show the pattern changing in less than two weeks. Looks like we’ll be sandwiched in between two highs. I’m not too worried about a storm going poof this year if it approaches TX. In fact, I believe the high SST’s would even fuel more moisture into a storm.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#804 Postby bubba hotep » Thu Aug 03, 2023 2:14 pm

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Winter time post are almost exclusively focused on the DFW area.

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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#805 Postby weatherdude1108 » Thu Aug 03, 2023 3:04 pm



We'll beat it tomorrow, and likely smash it by at least a week. :sun: :(
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#806 Postby Yukon Cornelius » Thu Aug 03, 2023 5:41 pm

This is just ridiculous at this point. Day after day after day of over 105 with a 110 thrown in here and there. Idk why but this summer feels so much hotter and worse than others.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#807 Postby CaptinCrunch » Thu Aug 03, 2023 6:26 pm

Hey everyone from Oswego NY on Lake Ontario :cheesy:

Been enjoying my 2 week vacation here in upstate NY, and man has the weather been absolutely beautiful. Highs have been pretty much in the 70s lows in the upper 50s to mid 60s. I think the warmest day was 91 in Saratoga Springs, and the coolest day was in Alexandria Bay on the St. Lawrence River it was 71, and up in the Adirondacks @ Old Forge it was 69.

Going to suck driving back to Texas this weekend. At least we have a overnight in Bowling Green Saturday night @ a very nice KOA.

NOT READY for 102-107 degrees temps after these past 2 weeks. :(
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#808 Postby cheezyWXguy » Thu Aug 03, 2023 10:34 pm

18z gfs is hilariously absurd in the long range. Basically puts the entire conus under a ridge, 106 in Montana at the end of the run.

Although next week’s rain chances aren’t going to be impressive compared to what was once modeled, I’m getting more confident that this is the beginning of the end of peak season heat. Still thinking above average late summer/early fall, but the troughs moving in over the northern half of the country in the next 1-2 weeks are a good indicator this pattern’s days are numbered. Even if temps stay warm I’m starting to get my hopes up that we will at least see rain chances a bit more frequently toward the end of the month and beyond based on ensemble guidance. Hope I’m not jinxing it
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#809 Postby South Texas Storms » Thu Aug 03, 2023 11:03 pm

cheezyWXguy wrote:18z gfs is hilariously absurd in the long range. Basically puts the entire conus under a ridge, 106 in Montana at the end of the run.

Although next week’s rain chances aren’t going to be impressive compared to what was once modeled, I’m getting more confident that this is the beginning of the end of peak season heat. Still thinking above average late summer/early fall, but the troughs moving in over the northern half of the country in the next 1-2 weeks are a good indicator this pattern’s days are numbered. Even if temps stay warm I’m starting to get my hopes up that we will at least see rain chances a bit more frequently toward the end of the month and beyond based on ensemble guidance. Hope I’m not jinxing it


Agreed. I'm thinking another 10 days of this brutal heat and then we start to cool down slightly and see some periodic rain chances. At least I hope that's the light at the end of the tunnel I see!
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#810 Postby HockeyTx82 » Fri Aug 04, 2023 5:30 am

Are you kidding me?

It's 87F at 530AM at the Denton Airport........

:froze:
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#811 Postby CaptinCrunch » Fri Aug 04, 2023 6:24 am

It rained up here last night and it's a nice 62 this morning with a 50% chance of showers. It's rained a few times while up here, with last Saturday being the heaviest. When it does rain it has been either over night or early morning. I think today's high gets up to 80 :ggreen:

Most nights we have slept with the windows open and a few fans running. Only AC in these parts are window units, usually 1 upstairs and 1 downstairs if that. :lol:

Since we are looking to move up this way in a year or 2, I been asking friends and relatives of my GF about the winters. Everyone said the same thing, winters around Oswego just ain't what they use to be. Yes, it can get bone chilling cold (below zero) but the normal winter temperatures will range from mid 30s to single digits. As for snow, the areas right off the lake don't get the heavy snows like the areas south and east of lake Ontario. The heavy lake effect snows are usually 10+ miles inland off the lake. Everyone here talks about how (back in the day) you used to have snow on the ground from the 1st snow to the last snow, but thanks to global warming now, when it does snow here, it usually melts (80%) before the next snow.

It's funny, I been showing peeps here what our forecast have been in DFW over the last 2 weeks, and they all say (Hell NO, on living in Texas) :lol: When it gets into the upper 80s here then that's to hot. The humidity here isn't bad because it is cooler, but percentage wise it's pretty close to the same as down there. I'm outside on the porch having coffee and doing this, it's like a cool Fall morning in Texas after an overnight rain.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#812 Postby funster » Fri Aug 04, 2023 8:07 am

I see a 111 high temp on the GFS for Monday :eek:
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#813 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 04, 2023 10:03 am

This death ridge has been something else this summer. Will never complain of cold ever again.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#814 Postby South Texas Storms » Fri Aug 04, 2023 1:10 pm

Ntxw wrote:This death ridge has been something else this summer. Will never complain of cold ever again.


It's just the longevity of it man. The heat lasts for weeks or even months on end. The cold normally doesn't last more than a week max.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#815 Postby Ntxw » Fri Aug 04, 2023 1:14 pm

South Texas Storms wrote:
Ntxw wrote:This death ridge has been something else this summer. Will never complain of cold ever again.


It's just the longevity of it man. The heat lasts for weeks or even months on end. The cold normally doesn't last more than a week max.


I'll have to check back but a ridge that stationary of magnitude isn't often a staple. There's got to be a PDO connection in there.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#816 Postby weatherdude1108 » Fri Aug 04, 2023 2:25 pm

This is the most hopeless/depressing forecast discussion I think I have ever seen. :onfire: :sprinkler: :wall:

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Austin/San Antonio TX
153 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, FIRE WEATHER, CLIMATE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Saturday night)
Issued at 1200 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Upper ridging continues to influence South-Central Texas today,
tomorrow, and for the foreseeable future. Temperatures will be on an
even slight increase in the short-term with highs tomorrow in the
100-108 degree range. Night time lows will be in the upper 70s to
near 80 degrees. Have extended the Heat Advisory for tomorrow, but
with the slight increase in temperatures, portions of our northern
areas and areas south of San Antonio have been upgraded back to an
Excessive Heat Warning for tomorrow. With the extremely dry
conditions in place and summer-like wind patterns bringing periods of
breezy wind, elevated to critical fire weather conditions will also
continue through Saturday. The Red Flag Warning for the same areas
has also been extended into Saturday. Continue to use proper
precautions with the heat and avoid any unnecessary burning to
prevent wildfires.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday through Friday)
Issued at 150 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

Model consensus continues to show no indications of relief from the
subtropical ridge through the extended forecast. What`s more
discouraging is the several cycles have had a recent tendency to
advertise a more amplified ridge over the Great Basin at about 8-10
days out only to fall back toward a lower amplitude ridge and a
repositioning right on top of TX as the periods get closer. With this
in mind, there isn`t much we can opt for in the forecast other than
near persistence temperatures and maybe some subtle dew point
adjustments on days the surface pressure gradients tighten. The result will
be continued above normal/near record temperatures and dry
conditions across the region, with Heat Headlines and some sort of
Fire Weather Headlines expected on each day for at least portions of
the CWA as RH`s will remain low in the afternoons/evenings, winds
will be breezy at times, and fuels will remain critically dry.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1212 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

VFR conditions are expected to prevail through the period with
continued high pressure over the region. May see a few clouds at
times, but not much more than that. With that, it is mainly a wind
forecast with typical summer wind patterns continuing. Periods of
gusty winds will be seen late morning through this evening,
returning again Saturday morning.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

The forecast remains relatively unchanged with the Red Flag
Warning and Rangeland Fire Danger Statement in effect from noon until
9 PM today. A combination of critically to extremely dry fuels,
breezy afternoon winds from 10-15 MPH, and minimum relative
humidities in the 20 to 30 percent range have supported the ignition
of wildfires with high resistance to control over the last several
days, with similar conditions forecast this afternoon and evening.
The latest forecasts from the Texas A&M Forest Service (TFS) call for
continued persistence of the aforementioned critically to extremely
dry fuels into at least this weekend. Residents across all of South-
Central Texas are urged to exercise extra care with any outdoor
activities that could inadvertently ignite a wildfire. Conditions are
expected to continue Saturday and another Red Flag Warning and Fire
Danger Statement has been issued for tomorrow.

&&

.CLIMATE...
Issued at 121 PM CDT Fri Aug 4 2023

(High temperature records for selected dates)

8/04 8/05 8/06 8/07
AUS 105/2011 105/1951 104/2013 106/2003
ATT 107/2011 106/2011 105/2013 108/2003
SAT 103/2022 104/2013 105/2013 104/2013
DRT 105/2022 105/1951 107/1964 106/1964
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#817 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 04, 2023 3:41 pm

I feel fairly confident changes are coming mid month. Be patient ladies and gentlemen. Hang in there lol
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#818 Postby Texoz » Fri Aug 04, 2023 4:17 pm

Cpv17 wrote:I feel fairly confident changes are coming mid month. Be patient ladies and gentlemen. Hang in there lol


Notice he didn't say which month. :D

Seriously, though. I hope you're correct and it's August because this is brutal.
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#819 Postby Edwards Limestone » Fri Aug 04, 2023 5:15 pm

At least the days are getting shorter and the sun angle is getting lower every day- trying to find the positives :double:
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Re: Texas Summer 2023

#820 Postby Cpv17 » Fri Aug 04, 2023 5:56 pm

Texoz wrote:
Cpv17 wrote:I feel fairly confident changes are coming mid month. Be patient ladies and gentlemen. Hang in there lol


Notice he didn't say which month. :D

Seriously, though. I hope you're correct and it's August because this is brutal.


I definitely hope I’m right too :lol:

I’m beyond sick and tired of this sh*t lol
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