WPAC: DORA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ntxw]

If you consider the ECMWF issues/bias, with what the 0z run showed Dora might become a monster southwest of Hawaii going poleward. OHC will be really good out that way if the structure stays intact.

This has potential for a crazy amount of ACE.

[cycloneye]

If you consider the ECMWF issues/bias, with what the 0z run showed Dora might become a monster southwest of Hawaii going poleward. OHC will be really good out that way if the structure stays intact.

This has potential for a crazy amount of ACE.

GFS also has the crossover to WPAC, but much weaker. It would be a huge ACE producer if is able to do that.

[Sciencerocks]

[Yellow Evan]

Increasingly ragged CDO in which the area of coldest cloud tops have shrunk while the eye also cooling. I am inclined to think it is in the middle of a ERC that will probably quickly complete itself in upcoming hours given the small size of the storm and eyewall. This is to be expected in initial pinhole eye TCs.

[cycloneye]

Closeup view.

[Yellow Evan]

If you consider the ECMWF issues/bias, with what the 0z run showed Dora might become a monster southwest of Hawaii going poleward. OHC will be really good out that way if the structure stays intact.

This has potential for a crazy amount of ACE.

I'm a little hesitant to believe this will make it past 140-150W as a potent system. We've seen compact systems (Felicia 21 comes to mind) thrive in weak easterly shear but once the shear vector flips westerly, which is both against the storm motion and against the storm's internal NW shear created by beta drift, it becomes to unravel fast. GFS has this flip in the vector occurring by day 4 due to strong trades in the CPAC outrunning UL easterly flow but it's also possible a stronger system in the short term alters the upper environment a bit.

[Hurricane2022]

[Yellow Evan]

[Cyclenall]

When is the dreaded pinhole eye going to present?

7am today. Its already collapsing though.

[Hurricane2022]

When is the dreaded pinhole eye going to present?

7am today. Its already collapsing though.

Not for long.

[Ntxw]

When is the dreaded pinhole eye going to present?

7am today. Its already collapsing though.

And trying to comeback. This is going to be a recurring theme with the SW movement and tiny core. Pulses but looks great.

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/VortixWx/status/1686749166427410432

[lilbump3000]

Dora just keeps on intensifying.

[cycloneye]

TXPZ21 KNES 021821
TCSENP

A. 05E (DORA)

B. 02/1800Z

C. 15.4N

D. 115.1W

E. ONE/GOES-E

F. T5.0/5.0

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...B EYE SURROUNDED AND EMBEDDED WITHIN W YIELDS A DT OF 5.0
AFTER 1.0 SUBTRACTED FOR AN EYE ADJUSTMENT. MET=4.5 AND PT=5.0. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[cycloneye]

EP, 05, 2023080218, , BEST, 0, 155N, 1149W, 90, 976, HU

[Yellow Evan]

12z GFS shows easterly shear being a bit of a problem tomorrow.

[Kingarabian]

Got that curved band back. Feel like that's been allowing it struggle with the dry air. Hopefully it can transition away from it soon.

[Yellow Evan]

12z ECMWF is starting to correct towards a stronger system and peaks this in a week south of Hawaii.

[Yellow Evan]

Pretty clear northeasterly shear.

[Hurricane2022]