Texas Summer 2023

[Cpv17]

Maybe this belongs in the winter thread but holy latest CANSIPs. I'd take that right now! Cold and stormy El Nino winter with lots o blocking.

Looks better for the SE than it does here.

[Edwards Limestone]

No end in sight down here in SC TX.
Nothing like the hellscape that summer 2011 was, but summer 2023 is definitely plenty miserable down here.

[lukem]

GFS continues to show significant rain for north Texas next week. We are about a week out, so hopefully the forecast sticks.

[A1A]

GFS continues to show significant rain for north Texas next week. We are about a week out, so hopefully the forecast sticks.

And the GFS rain for next week for central Texas is gone in the 12Z run today.

[bubba hotep]

GFS continues to show significant rain for north Texas next week. We are about a week out, so hopefully the forecast sticks.

And the GFS rain for next week for central Texas is gone in the 12Z run today.

Yep, folded to the Euro

[wxman57]

GFS continues to show significant rain for north Texas next week. We are about a week out, so hopefully the forecast sticks.

And the GFS rain for next week for central Texas is gone in the 12Z run today.

GFS still has the weakness in the ridge over TX early next week. Might allow for some rain.

[lukem]

GFS continues to show significant rain for north Texas next week. We are about a week out, so hopefully the forecast sticks.

And the GFS rain for next week for central Texas is gone in the 12Z run today.

I jinxed it. I was hesitant to post at first, but it had been so consistent the last few days I thought I was safe.

[cheezyWXguy]

18z brings back some hope for rain. I have a question though-
Given that the gfs shows the high shifting sw into Mexico, even after the trough makes its closest approach, is it inflating 2m temps a bit? I’m feeling like I’m missing something when it shows 109 with ridge overhead at day 3 and still 106 when the high is displaced over Mexico at day 10

[Iceresistance]

Currently in DC, but by the time I get back, there is a cooldown with storms in Oklahoma with highs in the 80s.

[Iceresistance]

(I can’t post images right now)

The -PDO is literally collapsing, the waters have really warmed in the past 2 weeks.

[Brent]

104 degrees.. fall needs to hurry up

[Edwards Limestone]

https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2023-08-02/powder-keg-pine-fire-in-bastrop-is-50-contained-but-still-burning

[Edwards Limestone]

https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2023-08-02/powder-keg-pine-fire-in-bastrop-is-50-contained-but-still-burning

 https://twitter.com/AustinFireInfo/status/1686506374421737473

[Texoz]

https://www.kut.org/energy-environment/2023-08-02/powder-keg-pine-fire-in-bastrop-is-50-contained-but-still-burning

https://twitter.com/AustinFireInfo/status/1686506374421737473?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

Drove through Bastrop about a month ago and noticed the loblolly pines were making a nice comeback from the 2011 fire. Would really suck if this heat & drought does another number on them.

[Edwards Limestone]

 https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1686381150170959872

[captainbarbossa19]

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1686381150170959872?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

All of this changes if the high shifts away temporarily and a storm ends up in the Gulf. This looks like a real possibility that the high will back off in about 7-10 days now. Euro shows it centered more over Arizona and Cali.

[Cpv17]

https://twitter.com/NWSSanAntonio/status/1686381150170959872?ref_src=twsrc%5Egoogle%7Ctwcamp%5Eserp%7Ctwgr%5Etweet

All of this changes if the high shifts away temporarily and a storm ends up in the Gulf. This looks like a real possibility that the high will back off in about 7-10 days now. Euro shows it centered more over Arizona and Cali.

For sure. Those monthly forecasts from the CPC are crapshoots. I really only look at the 6-10 and 8-14 day forecasts on there.

[cstrunk]

105F so far in Longview today. Hasn't rained in about 3 weeks.

[bubba hotep]

Ensembles continue to look encouraging, even if the operational runs aren't overly promising. The drought in Central and South Texas appears to really not want to let go of that ridge. Every time it looks like it will relax enough to allow rain into N & NE Texas, it flexes back on the next set of model runs.

[somethingfunny]

In a summer like this, I don't trust any storm in the Gulf to bring "relief". Most of us remember Lee in 2011. We don't talk about Don, but Lee.... that was a hard lesson to learn.