2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[LarryWx]

Although not at all reliable, especially further out in time, I wonder if the 5 or so closed sfc lows the 0Z CFS shows in the MDR Aug 10-30th is an ominous sign of an active period then. Not many seasons actually have more activity than that during that period. Many recent CFS runs have been active in the MDR then along with one or so threatening the NE Caribbean to the SE US.

[SFLcane]

12Z Euro Ensembles showing an eruption of development at the end of its run. Its that time....

https://i.ibb.co/2Px2qZh/Screenshot-2023-07-30-at-2-46-56-PM.png

Can you loop this run?

[Cpv17]

The steering pattern setting up towards the second week of August would favor a Gulf track. Both the GEFS and EPS are showing this.

[SFLcane]

Just the perfect timing for this.

[Hurricane2022]

Just the perfect timing for this.

https://i.postimg.cc/hGM4781v/IMG-7359.jpg

2023 so far

[jlauderdal]

Just the perfect timing for this.

https://i.postimg.cc/hGM4781v/IMG-7359.jpg

The annual July season cancel anxiety. Ask the residents of Fort Myers how last years season cancel worked out.

[SFLcane]

We’re is that trof? Long range Gfs illustrating would Could be a Pattern change just in time for cv season.

[Category5Kaiju]

Just the perfect timing for this.

https://i.postimg.cc/hGM4781v/IMG-7359.jpg

2023 so far
https://imageshack.com/i/potNgujqj

I think there was a fellow Storm2k member who a few posts ago mentioned how there seems to be a tendency for the Atlantic basin to perform contrary to expectations. As in, high activity and high impacts happen when they are least expected to happen and that some of the more memorable storms and years (such as the entirety of 2017 or 2019's Hurricane Dorian) occurred when people least expected them to. Really interesting to think about for sure.

[SFLcane]

ECMWF Precipitation Probability distribution 8/14- 8/21

[wxman57]

August starts tomorrow and the deep tropics are dead. Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a death ridge, though there are some indications that the ridge will weaken in 10 days. Subtropics remain active, which is good. Let them all form in the subtropics and stay out to sea this season. Fine with me.

[LarryWx]

August starts tomorrow and the deep tropics are dead. Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a death ridge, though there are some indications that the ridge will weaken in 10 days. Subtropics remain active, which is good. Let them all form in the subtropics and stay out to sea this season. Fine with me.

The deep tropics are, indeed, pretty quiet, which as we know is quite common on July 31st. However, model consensus suggests that won't remain the case as we get into the 2nd half of August. In addition, the last 7 El Niño seasons (back to 2002) had a minimum of 3 NS with TCG in the MDR
Aug+. A very quiet Aug+ like in 1997 would mean little deep tropics activity, but you're forecasting a pretty active season and you didn't forecast that the activity would mainly originate in the subtropics as I recall.

Like you, I'd love the rest to all form in the subtropics and stay out to sea as I don't want any part of these monsters. But that wouldn't agree too well with your active forecast. Please correct me if I'm wrong about your forecast. Did you before or are you now forecasting mainly subtropical geneses from this point on?

[BobHarlem]

I get it, seeing nothing on the ensembles or long range gfs at the start of August makes some people think it'll be a repeat of last year with nothing happening in August, but I really can't buy those odds two years in a row. (Although if 96/97L form we've already broken that, but I know most folks mean close in or MDR formation aka systems that impact land directly).

[Blown Away]

I get it, seeing nothing on the ensembles or long range gfs at the start of August makes some people think it'll be a repeat of last year with nothing happening in August, but I really can't buy those odds two years in a row. (Although if 96/97L form we've already broken that, but I know most folks mean close in or MDR formation aka systems that impact land directly).

The lack of deep moisture IMO is the culprit, last year and this year so far. Sure there will be a few big hurricanes, but most systems are struggling w/ dry air.

[SFLcane]

August starts tomorrow and the deep tropics are dead. Gulf of Mexico is dominated by a death ridge, though there are some indications that the ridge will weaken in 10 days. Subtropics remain active, which is good. Let them all form in the subtropics and stay out to sea this season. Fine with me.

Not falling for this you seem to get all of S2K with this post about this time every year.

[LarryWx]

For all years since 1995, avg # of Aug TCG for NS: 3.9 (1.5 during 8/1-15 and 2.4 during 8/16-31)

For 8 El Niño seasons, alone, since 1995: avg # of Aug TCG for NS: 3.1 (1.5 during 8/1-15 and 1.6 during 8/16-31)

[LarryWx]

Assuming we're not about to have a 1997 or 2022 season of nothingness in Aug: IF there were to be no TCG Aug 1-15, that wouldn't at all mean to bet on a quiet 8/16-31.

During 1995-2022, seven seasons had no TCG 8/1-15. Those seven averaged 2.6 TCG 8/16-31 that became a NS. In comparison, the seasons with 1+ TCG during 8/1-15 had a similar 2.4 NS TCG 8/16-31. So, IF 8/1-15 of 2023 were to be very quiet, that would have little bearing on the expectation for 8/16-31 based strictly on these stats.

[CyclonicFury]

It seems like every single year we have a modeled MDR system around this time of year that is expected to develop, gets assessed a high chance by NHC, then models drop it completely all at once and it fails to develop. After this happens, there's always the same discussion of how "it's always the next wave" and "maybe the MDR is just too hostile this year"

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1686122223541891072

[Category5Kaiju]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see unenthusiastic models for the foreseeable future, and then all of a sudden one day they all become excited about activity and we find ourselves tracking storms in no time. Not sure if it's just me, but sometimes I feel that these models (particularly the GFS) are especially sensitive to dry air in late July/early August and don't really see far into the future well if there's a lot of dry air around at that moment.

[Cpv17]

I honestly wouldn't be surprised if we see unenthusiastic models for the foreseeable future, and then all of a sudden one day they all become excited about activity and we find ourselves tracking storms in no time. Not sure if it's just me, but sometimes I feel that these models (particularly the GFS) are especially sensitive to dry air in late July/early August and don't really see far into the future well if there's a lot of dry air around at that moment.

After August 10th it wouldn’t surprise me if things start to pick up.