2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[Jr0d]

Amazing and absolutely a big concern for that area. But I do wonder if assuming it is verified as accurate whether it will be counted as the new world record because of how shallow the water is. I wonder what is the depth required to be considered for the world record. The existing record is 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" since 2016 per this:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/

So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by yesterday's range of 10.1F from the 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday.

Any thoughts from anyone on this? By the way, I expect a significantly cooler SST high there today due to showers in the area.

Many buoys in the area have alarmingly high SSTs as well. Again shallow water, but when you look to other areas like Marathon and Key West, ssts are in the 90s.

Not good. Just had a severe storm roll through Stock Island, waiting on data from Boca Chica. Regardless many moored boats got loose, a lot of dragged anchors.

Not a good sign. Even if this rain cools the water to the upper 80s, the latent heat here is off scale.

My fear is a small core system rapidly strengthening before any evacuations can be ordered. Hopefully it wont happen...

[Ianswfl]

Amazing and absolutely a big concern for that area. But I do wonder if assuming it is verified as accurate whether it will be counted as the new world record because of how shallow the water is. I wonder what is the depth required to be considered for the world record. The existing record is 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" since 2016 per this:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/

So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by yesterday's range of 10.1F from the 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday.

Any thoughts from anyone on this? By the way, I expect a significantly cooler SST high there today due to showers in the area.

Many buoys in the area have alarmingly high SSTs as well. Again shallow water, but when you look to other areas like Marathon and Key West, ssts are in the 90s.

Not good. Just had a severe storm roll through Stock Island, waiting on data from Boca Chica. Regardless many moored boats got loose, a lot of dragged anchors.

Not a good sign. Even if this rain cools the water to the upper 80s, the latent heat here is off scale.

My fear is a small core system rapidly strengthening before any evacuations can be ordered. Hopefully it wont happen...

Water temps at the beaches here in SWFL been running a bit cooler than previous years. Venice hovering around 86-88 most of the time. The last 3 summers it was hitting 91 or 92 a lot. Gotta wonder if it's something with the sensors at the pier after Ian or something if they moved them cause usually it's warmer in the summer and this summer has been warmer. Unless it's due to the wind direction, I dunno.

[St0rmTh0r]

Amazing and absolutely a big concern for that area. But I do wonder if assuming it is verified as accurate whether it will be counted as the new world record because of how shallow the water is. I wonder what is the depth required to be considered for the world record. The existing record is 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" since 2016 per this:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/

So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by yesterday's range of 10.1F from the 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday.

Any thoughts from anyone on this? By the way, I expect a significantly cooler SST high there today due to showers in the area.

Many buoys in the area have alarmingly high SSTs as well. Again shallow water, but when you look to other areas like Marathon and Key West, ssts are in the 90s.

Not good. Just had a severe storm roll through Stock Island, waiting on data from Boca Chica. Regardless many moored boats got loose, a lot of dragged anchors.

Not a good sign. Even if this rain cools the water to the upper 80s, the latent heat here is off scale.

My fear is a small core system rapidly strengthening before any evacuations can be ordered. Hopefully it wont happen...

I think thats an interesting point about the latent heat being off scale. there is so much energy out there if anything touches those waters its going to explode!

[St0rmTh0r]

Amazing and absolutely a big concern for that area. But I do wonder if assuming it is verified as accurate whether it will be counted as the new world record because of how shallow the water is. I wonder what is the depth required to be considered for the world record. The existing record is 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" since 2016 per this:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/

So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by yesterday's range of 10.1F from the 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday.

Any thoughts from anyone on this? By the way, I expect a significantly cooler SST high there today due to showers in the area.

Many buoys in the area have alarmingly high SSTs as well. Again shallow water, but when you look to other areas like Marathon and Key West, ssts are in the 90s.

Not good. Just had a severe storm roll through Stock Island, waiting on data from Boca Chica. Regardless many moored boats got loose, a lot of dragged anchors.

Not a good sign. Even if this rain cools the water to the upper 80s, the latent heat here is off scale.

My fear is a small core system rapidly strengthening before any evacuations can be ordered. Hopefully it wont happen...

Water temps at the beaches here in SWFL been running a bit cooler than previous years. Venice hovering around 86-88 most of the time. The last 3 summers it was hitting 91 or 92 a lot. Gotta wonder if it's something with the sensors at the pier after Ian or something if they moved them cause usually it's warmer in the summer and this summer has been warmer. Unless it's due to the wind direction, I dunno.

really insane regardless does anyone have an updated OHC MAP?

[LarryWx]

Amazing and absolutely a big concern for that area. But I do wonder if assuming it is verified as accurate whether it will be counted as the new world record because of how shallow the water is. I wonder what is the depth required to be considered for the world record. The existing record is 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" since 2016 per this:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/

So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by yesterday's range of 10.1F from the 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday.

Any thoughts from anyone on this? By the way, I expect a significantly cooler SST high there today due to showers in the area.

Many buoys in the area have alarmingly high SSTs as well. Again shallow water, but when you look to other areas like Marathon and Key West, ssts are in the 90s.

Not good. Just had a severe storm roll through Stock Island, waiting on data from Boca Chica. Regardless many moored boats got loose, a lot of dragged anchors.

Not a good sign. Even if this rain cools the water to the upper 80s, the latent heat here is off scale.

My fear is a small core system rapidly strengthening before any evacuations can be ordered. Hopefully it wont happen...

Water temps at the beaches here in SWFL been running a bit cooler than previous years. Venice hovering around 86-88 most of the time. The last 3 summers it was hitting 91 or 92 a lot. Gotta wonder if it's something with the sensors at the pier after Ian or something if they moved them cause usually it's warmer in the summer and this summer has been warmer. Unless it's due to the wind direction, I dunno.

After yesterday's Manatee Bay buoy SST high of an amazing 101.1 at 6PM, today thanks to showers at times and shallow water was 7.1 cooler at 93.0 exactly 24 hours later. This illustrates my concern about whether yesterday's 101.1 SST should be made the new official world's highest SST.

More on the validity of yesterday's amazing 101.1F on Manatee Bay:

"That could be a new world record, besting an unofficial 99.7 degree temperature once reported in Kuwait. But meteorologists say the Florida gauge's location in dark water near land could make that difficult to determine.

Was Monday’s 101.1 degree temperature in Manatee Bay a valid record measurement?

That depends on the surrounding circumstances, said Jeff Masters, a meteorologist for Yale Climate Connections. The reading would need to be verified, and no one keeps official sea surface temperature records, Masters said.

The Manatee Bay gauge is very close to land, south of Biscayne Bay, and measures the water temperature at a depth of 5 feet.

Since the Manatee Bay buoy is near land, the water temperature could have been heated up by floating plants and other debris, he said. Without photos documenting clear water there Monday, 'it will be difficult to verify the 101.1 degree record as valid.'

Given the gauge's location near land and the Kuwait measurement in open water, Masters said the two really shouldn't be compared."

https://www.usatoday.com/story/news/nat ... 463489007/

Over the last couple of days, the SST has moved over 3F within just one hour several times. That's not normal. Between 5 and 6AM yesterday (before sunrise), it rose nearly 3F from 91.6 to 94.5! How can that be? The sun doesn't even rise til 6:45AM!

[Jr0d]

There a big swings in temperature, obviously daytime heating plays a major role as well as the tides. Johnson Key and Murray Ney buoys also recorded ssts over 98 when the 101.1 temperature was recorded at Manatee Bay, im sure others will show extremely hot water as well.in the Florida Bay area.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mukf1



Todays heavy rain did help bring temperatures down but even the nearshore waters of Key West are still over 90. Hopefully we get more rain tomorrow to help cool things down but not as severe as this evening where we had wind gusts over 50mph.

The amount of latent heat around South Florida and the Keys feels like a ticking time bomb for those of us who live here.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=kywf1

[Jr0d]

really insane regardless does anyone have an updated OHC MAP?

Also look at the depth of 26°C Isotherm...from Cuba to Key West has extremely deep hot water.
http://isotherm.rsmas.miami.edu/heat/weba/atlantic.php

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1684159397650628610

@dmorris9661
The GFS/GEFS are the only model to develop the current AEW, which should have a boost from an interaction with a CCKW. The 2nd week of Aug (8th to 15th) looks to be quiet with a large suppressed CCKW passing the basin and Africa. Afterwards, more opportunities for the ATL basin.

 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1684159400724905984

By the 3rd week of Aug, you see more CCKW activity reaching the ATL basin/Africa. Along with more favorable climatology, this should spark the ATL basin and result in more activity than what we are currently seeing. Notice the lack of large, continuous WWB activity in the PAC

[LarryWx]

There a big swings in temperature, obviously daytime heating plays a major role as well as the tides. Johnson Key and Murray Ney buoys also recorded ssts over 98 when the 101.1 temperature was recorded at Manatee Bay, im sure others will show extremely hot water as well.in the Florida Bay area.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=jkyf1
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mukf1



Todays heavy rain did help bring temperatures down but even the nearshore waters of Key West are still over 90. Hopefully we get more rain tomorrow to help cool things down but not as severe as this evening where we had wind gusts over 50mph.

The amount of latent heat around South Florida and the Keys feels like a ticking time bomb for those of us who live here.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=kywf1

Yeah, perhaps the incoming low tide yesterday somehow was a factor in the ~3F rise from 5AM to 6AM? Low tide yesterday morning was 8:30AM.

The rain down there this morning is the most widespread I can recall in weeks. This has helped bring the Manatee Bay SST down to 86.9F at 10AM vs 94.5 at 10AM yesterday:

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[CyclonicFury]

So far this hurricane season, the velocity potential anomaly pattern has been a bit different than typical El Niños.

Composite of all moderate/strong El Niños since 1970, June-July:


June-July 2023:


The rising branch is farther west than typical for an El Niño, with the sinking branch expanding westward into the eastern Pacific. The velocity potential pattern resembles El Niño Modoki, even though the SST pattern is a coastal El Niño.

[Kingarabian]

So far this hurricane season, the velocity potential anomaly pattern has been a bit different than typical El Niños.

Composite of all moderate/strong El Niños since 1970, June-July:
https://i.imgur.io/VLbpID0_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

June-July 2023:
https://i.imgur.io/6QsdAzR_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

The rising branch is farther west than typical for an El Niño, with the sinking branch expanding westward into the eastern Pacific. The velocity potential pattern resembles El Niño Modoki, even though the SST pattern is a coastal El Niño.

Thats just one month though. Since El Nino started back in April, would be better to include past 3 months. Also gets rid of some noise.

[CyclonicFury]

So far this hurricane season, the velocity potential anomaly pattern has been a bit different than typical El Niños.

Composite of all moderate/strong El Niños since 1970, June-July:
https://i.imgur.io/VLbpID0_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

June-July 2023:
https://i.imgur.io/6QsdAzR_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

The rising branch is farther west than typical for an El Niño, with the sinking branch expanding westward into the eastern Pacific. The velocity potential pattern resembles El Niño Modoki, even though the SST pattern is a coastal El Niño.

Thats just one month though. Since El Nino started back in April, would be better to include past 3 months. Also gets rid of some noise.

Looks very similar with a 3 month sample, if not an even stronger signal:


2004 was somewhat similar but even farther west:

[Kingarabian]

So far this hurricane season, the velocity potential anomaly pattern has been a bit different than typical El Niños.

Composite of all moderate/strong El Niños since 1970, June-July:
https://i.imgur.io/VLbpID0_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

June-July 2023:
https://i.imgur.io/6QsdAzR_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

The rising branch is farther west than typical for an El Niño, with the sinking branch expanding westward into the eastern Pacific. The velocity potential pattern resembles El Niño Modoki, even though the SST pattern is a coastal El Niño.

Thats just one month though. Since El Nino started back in April, would be better to include past 3 months. Also gets rid of some noise.

Looks very similar with a 3 month sample, if not an even stronger signal:
https://i.imgur.io/DQ3Kk7J_d.webp?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Looks like a mix of Modoki El Nino and some La Nina. The crazy part is it's not latching on to the some of the warmest SSTs in the EPAC.

[weeniepatrol]

[Spacecoast]

Update from WeatherTiger.
What 101-degree water near the Keys and an analysis of the hurricane eras tell us:
https://www.yahoo.com/news/eras-tour-past-hurricanes-tell-162414149.html

<snip>
"The influence of AMO cycles is particularly pronounced in Florida, where hurricane landfalls are twice as common and major hurricane landfalls three times as frequent in warm versus cool AMO phases. "



Month of June values (from 1950-2023)

AMO index for June 2023 = 2.09


*Source CSU: Atlantic Multi-Decadal Oscillation index that utilized two predictors: 1) Sea surface temperatures (SSTs) in the far North Atlantic from 50-60°N, 50-10°W and 2) sea level pressures (SLPs) in the North Atlantic from 0-50°N, 70-10°W. The index is calculated by weighing the SST component as 60% of the index and the SLP component as the remaining 40%. All values use the 1981-2010 climatological average as a baseline.

[CyclonicFury]

As we get closer to the start of August, we'll probably start seeing more season canceling, especially from Andy Hazelton. July averages 1-2 storms and a hurricane about once every 2-3 years, and we already had a hurricane (Don) with potentially one more storm before the month ends. At the moment, the Atlantic is above average in named storms, hurricanes, and ACE (and major hurricanes before August are very rare to begin with, so it's not surprising we haven't had one yet).

But from a serious perspective, in my opinion, the time where it becomes reasonable to question whether a season will underperform expectations is around the last week of August. We're still about a month away from that time. 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 all had their first major hurricane around the last 10 days of August, so that is close to the average. August is on average the second-most active month in the Atlantic basin, though a lot of that activity occurs in the last third of the month. Every year we often see several MDR systems on the models earlier in the season, and they often underperform or don't form at all, leading to the illusion that the MDR is anomalously hostile and will be all season. We also hear all this discussion about how unusually stable the MDR is when it's mainly just unfavorable climo. As I noted a few days ago, the window for strong MDR storms seems to be limited to around August 20-September 30. Even 2010 and 2017, two of the strongest MDR seasons, didn't have any MDR hurricanes before the last third of August. I'd be very surprised if we saw a hurricane in the MDR proper before the last third of August, even if models may show it happen.

[SFLcane]

As we get closer to the start of August, we'll probably start seeing more season canceling, especially from Andy Hazelton. July averages 1-2 storms and a hurricane about once every 2-3 years, and we already had a hurricane (Don) with potentially one more storm before the month ends. At the moment, the Atlantic is above average in named storms, hurricanes, and ACE (and major hurricanes before August are very rare to begin with, so it's not surprising we haven't had one yet).

But from a serious perspective, in my opinion, the time where it becomes reasonable to question whether a season will underperform expectations is around the last week of August. We're still about a month away from that time. 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 all had their first major hurricane around the last 10 days of August, so that is close to the average. August is on average the second-most active month in the Atlantic basin, though a lot of that activity occurs in the last third of the month. Every year we often see several MDR systems on the models earlier in the season, and they often underperform or don't form at all, leading to the illusion that the MDR is anomalously hostile and will be all season. We also hear all this discussion about how unusually stable the MDR is when it's mainly just unfavorable climo. As I noted a few days ago, the window for strong MDR storms seems to be limited to around August 20-September 30. Even 2010 and 2017, two of the strongest MDR seasons, didn't have any MDR hurricanes before the last third of August. I'd be very surprised if we saw a hurricane in the MDR proper before the last third of August, even if models may show it happen.

Its only July 27th...

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1684594862040219648

[Jr0d]

...

Can you explain that chart. I am not familiar with it nor the significance.

Does orange/red generally mean more storms and blue/purple generally mean less or vice versa?

Given that 2004 was an active year for the Atlantic, I would assume orange/red tends to support more favorable storm conditions.

[CyclonicFury]

As we get closer to the start of August, we'll probably start seeing more season canceling, especially from Andy Hazelton. July averages 1-2 storms and a hurricane about once every 2-3 years, and we already had a hurricane (Don) with potentially one more storm before the month ends. At the moment, the Atlantic is above average in named storms, hurricanes, and ACE (and major hurricanes before August are very rare to begin with, so it's not surprising we haven't had one yet).

But from a serious perspective, in my opinion, the time where it becomes reasonable to question whether a season will underperform expectations is around the last week of August. We're still about a month away from that time. 2016, 2017, 2019, 2020, and 2021 all had their first major hurricane around the last 10 days of August, so that is close to the average. August is on average the second-most active month in the Atlantic basin, though a lot of that activity occurs in the last third of the month. Every year we often see several MDR systems on the models earlier in the season, and they often underperform or don't form at all, leading to the illusion that the MDR is anomalously hostile and will be all season. We also hear all this discussion about how unusually stable the MDR is when it's mainly just unfavorable climo. As I noted a few days ago, the window for strong MDR storms seems to be limited to around August 20-September 30. Even 2010 and 2017, two of the strongest MDR seasons, didn't have any MDR hurricanes before the last third of August. I'd be very surprised if we saw a hurricane in the MDR proper before the last third of August, even if models may show it happen.

Its only July 27th...

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1684594862040219648?s=20

July is rarely ever "kind" to the MDR to begin with. Systems like Bertha 1996, Emily 2005 and Bertha 2008 are the exception, not the norm. I don't get why Andy is often trying to insinuate the hostility of the MDR so far this month is unusual when it's very much normal. Even some hyperactive seasons in the 1990s and 2000s didn't have anything in the MDR in July.

August I agree with Hazelton on. We haven't had a single hurricane in the MDR east of the Caribbean during August since Irma in 2017, which was on the very last day of the month.

[CyclonicFury]

...

Can you explain that chart. I am not familiar with it nor the significance.

Does orange/red generally mean more storms and blue/purple generally mean less or vice versa?

Given that 2004 was an active year for the Atlantic, I would assume orange/red tends to support more favorable storm conditions.

Orange/red is anomalous sinking air while blue/purple is anomalous rising air. The most favorable pattern for the Atlantic has rising air over Africa and the Indian Ocean and sinking air over the central/eastern Pacific.