2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683549257398353922




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1683560312392368133

[LarryWx]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683549257398353922

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1683560312392368133

It is often still quiet on July 31st/start of August. So, IF the Euro's quiet were to verify, would that even be significant since that's not abnormal at all?

[cycloneye]

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683549257398353922

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1683560312392368133

It is often still quiet on July 31st/start of August. So, IF the Euro's quiet were to verify, would that even be significant since that's not abnormal at all?

HI Larry.
I think is because of the high expectations of a more busy season created by the experts in their forecasts have been doing with the very warm waters in Atlantic. Phil Klotzbach mentioned the battle between El NIño and the warm Atlantic waters that led for him to raise the numbers in the June forecast. Let's see how it all pans out during August and September when is showtime.

[Woofde]

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683549257398353922




 https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1683560312392368133

I think Andy's being a bit dramatic, as of yet the season is very much on pace to be above average. To say ENSO is winning even if early August is a dud, is a bit of a reach.

To look at a couple averages:

1st hurricane formation usually happens on August 11th. 2023 is ahead by 20 days.

5th named storm usually happens on August 22nd. We are more than a full month ahead of that.

We are currently sitting at 16 ACE points, the Atlantic usually takes until August 17th to get to this point. We are a little more than 3 weeks ahead of this.

We do the early season bear thing every year, but it's worth rehashing that the Atlantic really doesn't a whole lot until late August.

[LarryWx]

I think there tends to be too much drama on the internet of both extremes attached to every little thing that happens every day in the tropics or on the models. On Twitter for example, overly bullish or overly bearish statements mean more clicks/retweets, etc. That is "content" that gets more attention. It helps this and other wx forums, too, because it generates extra posts like I'm doing now.
That is the nature of the internet in general imho. It is all about "content" that is more exciting/not boring. I'm probably guilty of this at times even when I don't realize it.

[jlauderdal]

I think there tends to be too much drama on the internet of both extremes attached to every little thing that happens every day in the tropics or on the models. On Twitter for example, overly bullish or overly bearish statements mean more clicks/retweets, etc. That is "content" that gets more attention. It helps this and other wx forums, too, because it generates extra posts like I'm doing now.

There is way too much emphasis on the high ocean temps in the media, as we know, there are numerous ingredients that must come together at the right time to make a hurricane, its rare even in an active season.

[USTropics]

It's a big reach to say ENSO will be the reason this wave doesn't develop at the end of July. It's almost like some people are expecting July to be active for MDR systems? They are extremely rare. We've seen very little evidence that El Nino is driving the main atmospheric circulation patterns. We've yet to even have a significant WWB event in the Pacific. Local parameters (e.g., typical for climo, such as SAL outbreaks or increased ridging/forward speed) will be the reason this wave doesn't potentially develop. El Nino will eventually take over (likely in Fall/Winter when El Nino events typically are reinforced and strengthened) but as of yet there aren't the prevailing signs you would expect to see.

[CyclonicFury]

I respect Andy Hazelton, and he knows his stuff. But I'll be honest; he seems to have a bearish bias when it comes to the Atlantic. He's always pointing out unfavorable factors and seems to exaggerate dry air sometimes. He also likes to (jokingly) compare the Atlantic to 2013 a lot.

I don't agree with his take that this wave *needs* to develop to have an above-average season. It's not every year you see strong hurricanes in early August, especially in an El Niño year. 1951, which was one of the most active El Niño seasons, only had a weak TS in early August and no hurricanes until August 16 (excluding the May Hurricane Able). I also think it's too quick to assume the season will shut down early as well, though an El Niño would make that more likely.

[Category5Kaiju]

It's always that late July/early August period, isn't it?

In all seriousness though, I'm honestly kind of confused by why it seems like some are along the lines of thinking if this potential MDR wave for whatever reason doesn't form then the Atlantic is downright doomed. I feel like those who are thinking in this direction have way too high of expectations; I think I pointed it out before, but since when was the last time we had a season, regardless of ENSO state, that started producing major storms in late July/early August?

Also if anything, I'd argue that having a tame July would generally mean a more favorable late August/September period considering how fast the MJO typically moves.

[CyclonicFury]

It's important to remember that the majority of the strong MDR hurricane formations occur in a relatively short window from approximately August 20 to September 30. It's pretty rare to have long-tracked MDR hurricanes before then, with a few exceptions. In 2017, I remember a lot of discussion about how unfavorable the MDR was in August after Gert took way longer than expected to form and Harvey initially struggled to get going. I feel like every year we have the same discussion about how dry, stable and unfavorable the MDR is when that's just climo.

If there are no additional hurricanes at the end of August, there's a legitimate case the "+ENSO is winning" but it would be wise to see how the peak period transpires before making such a claim. 2004, the only recent hyperactive El Niño year, had over 200 ACE in August and September alone. I don't expect a season as intense as 2004 by any means but early August is often only marginally more favorable than July. The last third of August and September is the part of the season that really matters for MDR activity.

[Category5Kaiju]

Upon some recent thought, I'm going to make a list. A nice, comprehensible list that I feel will be quite helpful to refer to. It's a list of things going for an Atlantic season that overperforms El Nino expectations, as well as things that are going against that notion. I'm going to base my thoughts here on established, historical behaviors of the basin, as well as what has already happened or is expected to happen.

WHY THE ATLANTIC MAY OVERPERFORM:
1. Active WAM: This is something many recent years have featured, and with Africa expected to be wetter than many of the years (El Nino ones in particular) last decade and in the -AMO era, there really do not seem to be any major signs of this general pattern changing. In fact, I believe one of the reasons why 1951 was being used as an analog for this year was because it featured just that: a wetter than normal Africa. 2018 and 2019 also featured this despite being somehow affected by +ENSO conditions, and they both ended above average and even featured Category 5 hurricanes. In fact, you can thank wet Africa for being one of the reasons why we're seeing so many waves already being spit out and trying to form this season (some successfully, others not so successfully).

2. Extraordinarily warm sst anomalies: The big talk of this season, of course. The swath of excessively warm waters in the deep tropics and Canary Belt. At times, rivaling or even exceeding the anomalies that years like 2005 and 2010 showed. Warm waters like this can fuel pre-existing storms to have a greater chance of becoming more robust and stronger. However, they also create instability and can have localized effects such as lowering wind shear. This was one of the reasons that Phil Klotzbach and Eric Webb, if I remember correctly, explained as to why they believed this season could overperform relative to "standard" El Nino years. There seems to be a common idea that if wind shear is ripping then it doesn't matter how warm the waters are. This is true, but it is also important to know that under certain circumstances, warm water and wind shear aren't necessarily completely independent phenomena.

3. Cool PDO: We love talking about the Atlantic, but sometimes it is important to look at what is going on elsewhere to have an idea of how the Atlantic might behave. The EPAC has been struggling for a bit (ahem, 90/90 failed invest), and while it's still early and things could change, it's a bit interesting to see how the basin had such a late start and has not seen a Category 4 hurricane yet (in many years, we would have already seen a storm of such strength by now). It also seems to have a chance of staying quiet for the foreseeable future. Much of this could likely be attributed to the -PDO off the California coast that is bringing more shear and dry air into the region where many EPAC hurricanes typically thrive. As a result, this could reduce in somewhat less fierce competition between the EPAC and the Atlantic, especially considering how, in many cases, when one basin is active the other is quiet. Also not to mention that the SOI is still not nearly negative enough, meaning there's still a disconnect between the atmosphere and the ocean temperatures.

WHY THE ATLANTIC MAY UNDERPERFORM:
1. Robust El Nino on its way: I honestly cannot think of any large-scale factor that is working against a busy Atlantic aside from this. Historically as we know, El Ninos are not good for heavy Atlantic action as they bring dry air and shear to the basin while keeping the EPAC alive and well. The stronger, the more potent the effects. This year looks to be a future El Nino year, which is also east-focused. This will likely mean that the Caribbean will be less active than usual, and the season could end earlier than some of the La Nina years we've seen in recent times.


So now you can be the judge.

[jconsor]

Agreed, Larry. Even the post-1995 active era has generally been quiet in the last third of Jul and first third of Aug. I went into depth about this in the below thread:

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683771282557394945




 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683772826468114432

https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1683549257398353922

https://twitter.com/DerekOrtt/status/1683560312392368133

It is often still quiet on July 31st/start of August. So, IF the Euro's quiet were to verify, would that even be significant since that's not abnormal at all?

[SFLcane]

It's important to remember that the majority of the strong MDR hurricane formations occur in a relatively short window from approximately August 20 to September 30. It's pretty rare to have long-tracked MDR hurricanes before then, with a few exceptions. In 2017, I remember a lot of discussion about how unfavorable the MDR was in August after Gert took way longer than expected to form and Harvey initially struggled to get going. I feel like every year we have the same discussion about how dry, stable and unfavorable the MDR is when that's just climo.

If there are no additional hurricanes at the end of August, there's a legitimate case the "+ENSO is winning" but it would be wise to see how the peak period transpires before making such a claim. 2004, the only recent hyperactive El Niño year, had over 200 ACE in August and September alone. I don't expect a season as intense as 2004 by any means but early August is often only marginally more favorable than July. The last third of August and September is the part of the season that really matters for MDR activity.

This!

In my opinion July it’s just an extension of June and is quite in 80% of years. We are just spoiled after 2005. There is a reason Phil k rings bell Aug 20th. The REAL season.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766981155262300160

[SFLcane]

Don’t know how to post entire thing but here is a long A+ thread by Yaakov on the CFS.

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1683779656422420480

[Category5Kaiju]

It's important to remember that the majority of the strong MDR hurricane formations occur in a relatively short window from approximately August 20 to September 30. It's pretty rare to have long-tracked MDR hurricanes before then, with a few exceptions. In 2017, I remember a lot of discussion about how unfavorable the MDR was in August after Gert took way longer than expected to form and Harvey initially struggled to get going. I feel like every year we have the same discussion about how dry, stable and unfavorable the MDR is when that's just climo.

If there are no additional hurricanes at the end of August, there's a legitimate case the "+ENSO is winning" but it would be wise to see how the peak period transpires before making such a claim. 2004, the only recent hyperactive El Niño year, had over 200 ACE in August and September alone. I don't expect a season as intense as 2004 by any means but early August is often only marginally more favorable than July. The last third of August and September is the part of the season that really matters for MDR activity.

This!

In my opinion July it’s just an extension of June and is quite in 80% of years. We are just spoiled after 2005. There is a reason Phil k rings bell Aug 20th. The REAL season.

https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/766981155262300160?s=46&t=sStb56JhzYdUjITqDzKFmQ

Even 2005 didn't feature a major hurricane form out of the MDR in the very late July/early August timeframe.

Also I'd argue that it also has quite a bit to do with model-hugging and nowcasting. As in, one sees dry air currently and automatically assumes it will stick around for the rest of the season, or sees one unfavorable model run and believes it is telling the entire truth.

[WeatherBoy2000]

There's been a lot of talk saying that this season will have to start early to see high activity, this could be true if the hyperactive forecasts were to verify, but for a 120-140 ace season this may not have to be the case. 2018 had one decent burst of active at the beginning of July and then was pretty much dead except for two short live TS in August. The season ended with over 130 ace despite the el nino and -amo. Although we'll assuredly have a stronger el nino this year, 2023 has one of the strongest positive amos on record to counter it. This is not to say that the el nino won't suppress the season, far from it, I think it will prevent the season from going absolutely nuts. CSU is predicting 160 ace despite the el nino, imagine if this were a la nina, easily 180+ imo.

[Jr0d]

101.1 water temperature recorded in Manatee bay(Florida bay between Key Largo and the Florida mainland). Many nearby observations show water temps reaching the upper 90s.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mnbf1

It is shallow water but this is something incredible.

Mike's weather page mentioned this could be a world record.

This is why I am extremely concerned if qet anything near here, the ocean heat is basically unlimited right now.

[LarryWx]

101.1 water temperature recorded in Manatee bay(Florida bay between Key Largo and the Florida mainland). Many nearby observations show water temps reaching the upper 90s.
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=mnbf1

It is shallow water but this is something incredible.

Mike's weather page mentioned this could be a world record.

This is why I am extremely concerned if qet anything near here, the ocean heat is basically unlimited right now.

https://i.ibb.co/CPQjbg4/Screenshot-20230725-095704-2.png

Amazing and absolutely a big concern for that area. But I do wonder if assuming it is verified as accurate whether it will be counted as the new world record because of how shallow the water is. I wonder what is the depth required to be considered for the world record. The existing record is 99.7F set in Kuwait Bay "recorded by the offshore station KISR01 located in the middle of the Bay" since 2016 per this:

https://pubmed.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/33096400/

So, that buoy doesn't appear to be in overly shallow water. OTOH, the Manatee Bay buoy is in shallow water as shown by yesterday's range of 10.1F from the 4AM low of 91.0 to the 101.1 high at 6PM. In terms of world record hot SST, I don't feel like it is apples to apples when comparing very shallow waters to deeper waters. Perhaps a more appropriate measure would be to only consider the mean for the day, which was 96F yesterday.

Any thoughts from anyone on this? By the way, I expect a significantly cooler SST high there today due to showers in the area.

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/wxjerdman/status/1683902505350987783

[Spacecoast]

Euro extended range (101 member) ensembles:
TD probabilities for week of Aug 20th


TStorm probabilities for week of Aug 20th