2023 EPAC Season

[Yellow Evan]

Lack of monsoon trough after today on any global model does not inspire confidence on it being any more than an easterly wave. It's likely worthy of a 20% though.

[gatorcane]

The El Niño continues to intensify so while the global models don’t show much in the latest runs, it looks like the EPAC has the potential to crank out many big hurricanes for the next several months going out into Aug and even September (and possibly beyond).

[cycloneye]

And just like that, the 2023 season has it's first major cane.

[Yellow Evan]

EPS control still has a strong -VP signal in the first half of August while CFS and GEFS are much and slightly more delayed. Regardless, a notable uptick in activity is coming. As typical for a Nino, I expect a sizeable chunk of the ACE to be generated next month and multiple major hurricanes. Every El Niño since 2004 has generated at least 44 ACE in August.

[Kingarabian]

Ryan Maue's ACE numbers still has the EPAC below average.

[Yellow Evan]

My expectations of an uptick in August remain mostly unchanged. Timeframe on the EPS mean for Pacific-wide -VP is encouraging though westerly shear from -VP in the WPAC will be an issue until early August.

EPS control still has a strong -VP signal in the first half of August while CFS and GEFS are much and slightly more delayed. Regardless, a notable uptick in activity is coming. As typical for a Nino, I expect a sizeable chunk of the ACE to be generated next month and multiple major hurricanes. Every El Niño since 2004 has generated at least 44 ACE in August.

[gatorcane]

The EPAC seems a bit on the quiet side looking at the long-range global models, more quiet than I expected actually given a strengthening El Nino. Is this a surprise to anybody?

[Kingarabian]

The EPAC seems a bit on the quiet side looking at the long-range global models, more quiet than I expected actually given a strengthening El Nino. Is this a surprise to anybody?

Nope, because as mentioned previous times on this thread and elsewhere, there are other factors slowing the season down.

[Yellow Evan]

The EPAC seems a bit on the quiet side looking at the long-range global models, more quiet than I expected actually given a strengthening El Nino. Is this a surprise to anybody?

El Niño != entire season active.

[Kingarabian]

Models seem to agree on some sort of weak system by the end of July.

[cycloneye]

Ex 95L looks like it may develop.

 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1684541732116111361

[Kingarabian]

West of 120W and north of 10N, EPAC is still very dry.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Thu Jul 27 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form off the coast of southern Mexico
over the weekend to early next week. Thereafter, some gradual
development of this system is possible and a tropical depression
could form while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15
mph, roughly parallel to the coasts of southern and southwestern
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[Ntxw]

Ex-95L or the envelope should try to form in the EPAC, caveats of the cooler SSTs etc and some dry air out west, it could be a SW dip type of system due to ridge which sometimes can overperform if it can hit those warmer SSTs. Perhaps the next long-tracker. Might be the second major of the season.

[Kingarabian]

If it doesn't die off early on it should become the next MH if it follows the Euro track.

[cycloneye]

Kingarabian It stays in good shape moving south of Hawaii.

[cycloneye]

Ex 95L will move to EPAC and then, development occurs.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located over the southwestern Caribbean Sea is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The system is
expected to move across Central America and over the eastern Pacific
during the next day or so, and an area of low pressure is expected
to form off the coast of southern Mexico later this weekend.
Thereafter, some gradual development of this system is possible and
a tropical depression could form while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[Kingarabian]

Recent runs aren't strong. Could easily change but haven't seen this much dry air since 2013.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jul 28 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A tropical wave located near the eastern coast of Central America is
producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms. The system is
forecast to move across Central America and over the eastern Pacific
during the next day or so, and an area of low pressure is expected
to form off the coast of southern Mexico later this weekend.
Thereafter, gradual development of this system is forecast and a
tropical depression will likely form while it moves generally
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, roughly parallel to the coasts
of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Bucci

[Kingarabian]

Crazy to see a west moving long tracker only reaching moderate TS strength on the models.