#7 Postby LarryWx » Mon Jul 10, 2023 12:36 pm
cycloneye wrote:
Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
200 PM EDT Mon Jul 10 2023
For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:
1. Central Atlantic:
An area of low pressure is expected to form in a day or so several
hundred miles to the east-northeast of Bermuda. Environmental
conditions are expected to be marginally conducive for development,
and the system could become a subtropical or tropical depression
during the next few days while it moves generally eastward. By the
weekend, the low should turn northward bringing the system over
cooler waters, likely limiting additional development.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent.
Forecaster Cangialosi/Kelly
Per my recollection of recent years, either the NHC tends to underplay these subtropical lows regarding subtropical tropical genesis in the TWO percent chances and/or they tend to "over-perform". Thus, considering this, being that about all models for several runs have had a pretty strong low forming within a few days, being that SSTs are near a warm enough 26C, and with "57" going very bullish, I'm going with a much higher chance than the NHC's 40% chance for a STD or TD to form from this. I think the NHC is playing catch-up as they had no chance mentioned as recently as Saturday night.
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