2023 Indicators (SST, SAL, MSLP, Wind shear, Steering, Instability) and Day 16+ Models

[LarryWx]

Almost the entire basin of the Atlantic is above average, what is going on?

Very likely due to Global Warming, since we are in a El Nino!

Indeed. Whichever way it is measured, whether it be the worldwide tropics, the N Hemisphere, or globally, there has been record or near record warmth for the last 60 days per the CFSR and the same for at least worldwide for ERA5. So, don't look for significant warm anomalies to go away anytime soon though a reduction is possible.

https://climate.copernicus.eu/copernicu ... d-globally

https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

[Category5Kaiju]

Interestingly, the sst anomaly profile we have now looks almost identical to the "very active" composite

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1676970005081243649

[gatorcane]

The waters across the Pacific south of Mexico near the equator continue to get warmer and are much above average now and spreading west. Hello El Niño, could be a strong one too.

[Category5Kaiju]

The waters across the Pacific south of Mexico near the equator continue to get warmer and are much above average now and spreading west. Hello El Niño, could be a strong one too.

https://i.postimg.cc/13hnjtbG/ssta-daily-current.png

That -PDO though stands out quite a bit. Quite fascinating to see how that is among the coldest regions of the global ocean currently, at least sst-anomaly-wise.

[Spacecoast]

Decent SAL outbreak in process this week......

[LarryWx]

Decent SAL outbreak in process this week......
https://i.ibb.co/hgqLj81/ec3.jpg

Thanks for posting this. Is that typical SAL for mid July? I'm asking because July is during the heart of the strongest SAL on an average basis. SAL was near record weak in early June.

[Spacecoast]

Decent SAL outbreak in process this week......
https://i.ibb.co/hgqLj81/ec3.jpg

Thanks for posting this. Is that typical SAL for mid July? I'm asking because July is during the heart of the strongest SAL on an average basis. SAL was near record weak in early June.

idk... I suspect this is not extra-ordinary for mid July.
Not being aware of any SAL anomaly charts, perhaps PWAT anomaly charts can be useful....

[Category5Kaiju]

Another thing I'd like to point out here is, I think the Atlantic hurricane season would experience more struggles if the PDO were to be + rather than -. Kind of like what happened in 2016, I'd argue that having a +PDO could really boost the EPAC while capping the Atlantic. Hence, if we were to have the same insanely warm MDR sst anomalies like we are seeing now but also have a +PDO with the El Nino, then that could still spell trouble for Atlantic activity, and I'd likely be more bearish with my outlook for the Atlantic.

But with the -PDO, at least as of recently, seemingly hurting EPAC activity, it kind of begs the question as to whether that should be more closely looked at aside from the Atlantic sst anomalies themselves in determining how active the Atlantic could possibly get this season.

[Ntxw]

Another thing I'd like to point out here is, I think the Atlantic hurricane season would experience more struggles if the PDO were to be + rather than -. Kind of like what happened in 2016, I'd argue that having a +PDO could really boost the EPAC while capping the Atlantic. Hence, if we were to have the same insanely warm MDR sst anomalies like we are seeing now but also have a +PDO with the El Nino, then that could still spell trouble for Atlantic activity, and I'd likely be more bearish with my outlook for the Atlantic.

But with the -PDO, at least as of recently, seemingly hurting EPAC activity, it kind of begs the question as to whether that should be more closely looked at aside from the Atlantic sst anomalies themselves in determining how active the Atlantic could possibly get this season.

The PDO doesn't have a strong correlation with the Atlantic outside of the higher latitudes. If it did then last year would have gone gangbusters with very cold pdo and Nina. Aside with indirect relations from EPAC alongside PMM, ENSO itself is a higher energy budget for the globe overall due to its positioning in the deep tropics.

AMO is of more value on the Atlantic side for the basin.

[toad strangler]

June 2023 Atlantic SST anomalies vs the Pat
 http://twitter.com/zlabe/status/1678101018473639937

[gatorcane]

June 2023 Atlantic SST anomalies vs the Pat
http://twitter.com/zlabe/status/1678101018473639937?s=46&t=43ZHxVfHrYVe9pbpW8l0fg

Neat graphic. Most of the Atlantic anomalies are east so I could see an active MDR particularly east of the Lesser Antilles over the South-Central Atlantic out through the Cape Verde islands were those anomalously warm SSTs reside. But with the El Niño, it should keep the Gulf and Caribbean in check.

[toad strangler]

June 2023 Atlantic SST anomalies vs the Pat
http://twitter.com/zlabe/status/1678101018473639937?s=46&t=43ZHxVfHrYVe9pbpW8l0fg

Neat graphic. Most of the Atlantic anomalies are east so I could see an active MDR particularly east of the Lesser Antilles over the South-Central Atlantic out through the Cape Verde islands were those anomalously warm SSTs reside. But with the El Niño, it should keep the Gulf and Caribbean in check.

Yep, that’s what textbook climatology would infer. Except there isn’t any analogs to compare a Nino with off the charts Atlantic Basin SST warmth like this. Sometimes books get burned. Or rewritten with a new chapter added. We shall see.

[NDG]

June 2023 Atlantic SST anomalies vs the Pat
http://twitter.com/zlabe/status/1678101018473639937?s=46&t=43ZHxVfHrYVe9pbpW8l0fg

Neat graphic. Most of the Atlantic anomalies are east so I could see an active MDR particularly east of the Lesser Antilles over the South-Central Atlantic out through the Cape Verde islands were those anomalously warm SSTs reside. But with the El Niño, it should keep the Gulf and Caribbean in check.

Which is what the Climate Models have shown all along, an active Tropical Atlantic MDR and in the SW Subtropical Atlantic, with dryer than average conditions for the Caribbean west of the Lesser Antilles.
IMO, the GOM could be a toss up, I wouldn't surprised if a few storms form there if the shear stays below average like it is right now.

[NDG]

Decent SAL outbreak in process this week......
https://i.ibb.co/hgqLj81/ec3.jpg

I find the Fox's Saharan dust graphics to be a bit exaggerating, according to this graphic and by looking at surface reports the current Saharan dust outbreaks are mostly average to below average in thickness.

[mantis83]

June 2023 Atlantic SST anomalies vs the Pat
http://twitter.com/zlabe/status/1678101018473639937?s=46&t=43ZHxVfHrYVe9pbpW8l0fg

Neat graphic. Most of the Atlantic anomalies are east so I could see an active MDR particularly east of the Lesser Antilles over the South-Central Atlantic out through the Cape Verde islands were those anomalously warm SSTs reside. But with the El Niño, it should keep the Gulf and Caribbean in check.

good news for florida.....

[Hurricane2022]

Great thread here.
 https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1678160904569909249

[cycloneye]

Great thread here.
https://twitter.com/dmorris9661/status/1678160904569909249?t=4eBOlMw_8VVMvuhFk0fDUQ&s=19

Indeed, a great thread with different nuggets.

[Hurricane2022]

I hope that Shear becomes very strong in the GOM.
 https://twitter.com/DrJeffMasters/status/1678181150060077066



 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1678187551381770240

[Blown Away]

Wow, that’s insane. Anything along the S FL Peninsula coast or GOM loop current would explode if upper conditions are good.

[IsabelaWeather]

Decent SAL outbreak in process this week......
https://i.ibb.co/hgqLj81/ec3.jpg

I find the Fox's Saharan dust graphics to be a bit exaggerating, according to this graphic and by looking at surface reports the current Saharan dust outbreaks are mostly average to below average in thickness.

https://i.imgur.com/Y0Yotfa.gif

SAL gets talked about A LOT on this forum, but so far the outbreaks havent been very strong, the last one was decent; but more like a normal level. I like your graphic better than the exaggerated one.

2020 had insane SAL's and look how it ended up, I think SAL is talked about too much.