2023 EPAC Season

[cycloneye]

5 AM PDT TWO still has no changes in the percentages.

Offshore of Southern Mexico:
A trough of low pressure a few hundred miles south of southern
Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual
development during the next several days, and a tropical depression
is likely to form during the middle of the week. The system is
expected to move westward to west-northwestward, remaining well
offshore of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Looks like the 20/80 AOI is slowly trying to start the organization proccess.

[cycloneye]

2. Offshore of Southern Mexico:
Shower activity associated with a trough of low pressure a few
hundred miles south of southern Mexico has become a little better
organized since yesterday. Environmental conditions are expected to
be conducive for gradual development during the next several days,
and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to
latter part of this week. The system is expected to move westward to
west-northwestward, remaining well offshore of the coast of southern
and southwestern Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

[cycloneye]

Will this basin have it's first longtracker of the season with 94E?

[NDG]

Will this basin have it's first longtracker of the season with 94E?

After the big fail with 93E I am not believing the models past their 72 hr range. Just from 4 days ago we were supposed to see two strong Tropical Storms if not hurricanes by today.
Anything that tries to track near or north of the 12-15th latitude west of 115W will have a hard time deepening in cooler SSTs & more stable air.

[Hurricane2022]

Well... ... ?

[Kingarabian]

Don't need water vapor filters to see how dry half the EPAC is right now.


Dry air in the EPAC is stable air from colder than normal waters. Haven't seen it like this since 2010-2013.

[tolakram]

I have not read every post over the past few days, sorry if this is a duplicate.

Wouldn't it be interesting if a super warm Atlantic did not mean an active Atlantic season during an el nino but instead simply killed the EPAC season?

[Yellow Evan]

Will this basin have it's first longtracker of the season with 94E?

After the big fail with 93E I am not believing the models past their 72 hr range. Just from 4 days ago we were supposed to see two strong Tropical Storms if not hurricanes by today.
Anything that tries to track near or north of the 12-15th latitude west of 115W will have a hard time deepening in cooler SSTs & more stable air.

https://i.imgur.com/3aINhh3.png

It is important to understand why certain model solutions fail rather than merely they just failed. The GFS is regularly overly aggressive in the medium range in any TC basin with a monsoon trough which is why unless there’s a strong MJO event there I am very skeptical of its solution in most basins until there has been consistency. 93E also failed because it was too large to generate central convection needed for pressure falls at the surface and to develop a secondary circulation aloft. 94E is much more compact so it won’t fail for that reason.

[Kingarabian]

I have not read every post over the past few days, sorry if this is a duplicate.

Wouldn't it be interesting if a super warm Atlantic did not mean an active Atlantic season during an el nino but instead simply killed the EPAC season?

It would be interesting but I doubt the Atlantic is limiting the EPAC more than the
-PDO/-PMM combo.

[Kingarabian]

Will this basin have it's first longtracker of the season with 94E?

After the big fail with 93E I am not believing the models past their 72 hr range. Just from 4 days ago we were supposed to see two strong Tropical Storms if not hurricanes by today.
Anything that tries to track near or north of the 12-15th latitude west of 115W will have a hard time deepening in cooler SSTs & more stable air.

https://i.imgur.com/3aINhh3.png

It is important to understand why certain model solutions fail rather than merely they just failed. The GFS is regularly overly aggressive in the medium range in any TC basin with a monsoon trough which is why unless there’s a strong MJO event there I am very skeptical of its solution in most basins until there has been consistency. 93E also failed because it was too large to generate central convection needed for pressure falls at the surface and to develop a secondary circulation aloft. 94E is much more compact so it won’t fail for that reason.

Good points. 94E if it remains on a more WNW heading should fair much better despite the current easterly shear affecting it.

[NDG]

Don't need water vapor filters to see how dry half the EPAC is right now.
https://i.postimg.cc/3wV30qMX/20231911850-GOES18-ABI-tpw-GEOCOLOR-3600x2160.jpg

Dry air in the EPAC is stable air from colder than normal waters. Haven't seen it like this since 2010-2013.

That's why I'm having a hard time believing the GFS in 94E reaching the Hawaiian Islands as a TS.

[cycloneye]

Don't need water vapor filters to see how dry half the EPAC is right now.
https://i.postimg.cc/3wV30qMX/20231911850-GOES18-ABI-tpw-GEOCOLOR-3600x2160.jpg

Dry air in the EPAC is stable air from colder than normal waters. Haven't seen it like this since 2010-2013.

That's why I'm having a hard time believing the GFS in 94E reaching the Hawaiian Islands as a TS.

See what Yellow Evan posted at the 94E thread where he posted about that.

[cycloneye]

Does anyone know the name of that tiny island in the Eastern Pacific around 10.3N-109.5W? Calvins core passed it to the north.

[Yellow Evan]

Clipperton Island.

[cycloneye]

No people live in Clipperton Island that is from France. Found details at wiki.



https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Clipperton_Island

[Hurricane2022]

 https://twitter.com/Yellow_Evan/status/1679297117943369728

[cycloneye]

The 2023 season so far=The 3 storms turned to hurricanes.

[cycloneye]

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the central potion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

[Kingarabian]

South of Southwestern Mexico:
An area of low pressure could form well south of the coast of
southwestern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week.
Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it
moves westward to west-northwestward over the central potion of the
eastern Pacific basin.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

Very weak Euro and CMC support.