2023 EPAC Season

[Kingarabian]

Models have a large sprawling system in association with the remnants of TS Bret.

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 PM PDT Wed Jun 21 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression could form early next week while
it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern
coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...medium...60 percent.

Forecaster Reinhart

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Thu Jun 22 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico...
An area of low pressure is likely to form this weekend a few hundred
miles offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental
conditions are forecast to be favorable for development of this
system, and a tropical depression is expected to form early next
week while it moves generally west-northwestward parallel to the
southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.

Forecaster Roberts

[Kingarabian]

For the 0/70. GFS/CMC classic El Nino hurricane intensity and track. Euro not so much.

[cycloneye]

For the 0/70. GFS/CMC classic El Nino hurricane intensity and track. Euro not so much.

What about another one that GFS has south of CA?

[Kingarabian]

For the 0/70. GFS/CMC classic El Nino hurricane intensity and track. Euro not so much.

What about another one that GFS has south of CA?

https://i.imgur.com/0d7IUNH.png

Hoping both of them develop as they are likely OTS. But Euro is keeping both weak.

[cycloneye]

What is expected with El Niño. Two potent hurricanes but let's see if it occurs this way.

956 mbs.



938 mbs.

[Ntxw]

The waters off the southwest Mexican coast are some of the warmest raw SSTs globally, outside of the Persian Gulf region. If the atmospheric conditions allow it, canonical +ENSO do tend to focus quality over quantity.

[Kingarabian]

What is expected with El Niño. Two potent hurricanes but let's see if it occurs this way.

956 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/S86FT3Y.png

938 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/F3nBfT3.png

Wonder when we'll see the first sub 900 model run.

[Kingarabian]

12z CMC backed off the first system. 12z Euro switched back to development on the first.

[Yellow Evan]

ECMWF never dropped the first to begin with.

Area soundings on the GFS show upper level easterlies and low level westerlies, which is a recipe for high shear.

[Yellow Evan]

What is expected with El Niño. Two potent hurricanes but let's see if it occurs this way.

956 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/S86FT3Y.png

938 mbs.

https://i.imgur.com/F3nBfT3.png

Wonder when we'll see the first sub 900 model run.

Ever since GFS became ocean coupled, phantom sub-900 runs have been greatly reduced. I think I've only seen it for Ilsa and Mawar since 2021, the latter of which probably verified and the former at least likely got close.

[Yellow Evan]

This would keep the door open for activity through the entire July, perhaps more so than the typical El Nino.

[aspen]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1121617963267653693/FzRUKgMWYAQHFJR.png

This would keep the door open for activity through the entire July, perhaps more so than the typical El Nino.

Look at that sinking branch over Africa and the IO. That would shut off the Atlantic for over a month, despite the super favorable SSTAs and the dual June MDR storms being a sign of an active season.

[Category5Kaiju]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1121617963267653693/FzRUKgMWYAQHFJR.png

This would keep the door open for activity through the entire July, perhaps more so than the typical El Nino.

Look at that sinking branch over Africa and the IO. That would shut off the Atlantic for over a month, despite the super favorable SSTAs and the dual June MDR storms being a sign of an active season.

I respectfully disagree that that look alone would entail such; maybe we see a limitation in deep tropical activity, but it’s totally possible we see a storm or two form from non-deep tropical wave origins, like in the subtropics. Best to keep watching of course!

[cycloneye]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
500 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

1. Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of
southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms.
Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for
development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to
form by early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward
parallel to the southwestern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...80 percent.

Forecaster Cangialosi/Papin

[Kingarabian]

Chances of TCG for the 2nd system that the models show on depend largely on current TS Brett and where it crashes in CA.

[Kingarabian]

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/733552978572869632/1121617963267653693/FzRUKgMWYAQHFJR.png

This would keep the door open for activity through the entire July, perhaps more so than the typical El Nino.

Look at that sinking branch over Africa and the IO. That would shut off the Atlantic for over a month, despite the super favorable SSTAs and the dual June MDR storms being a sign of an active season.

MDR looks pretty ripe for development regardless of the IO though.

[cycloneye]

Now there is a second area that will form south of CA.

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
1100 AM PDT Fri Jun 23 2023

For the eastern North Pacific...east of 140 degrees west longitude:

Off the Southwestern Coast of Mexico:
A broad trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south
of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized
showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to
be conducive for development of this system, and a tropical
depression is expected to form early next week while it moves
generally west-northwestward parallel to the southwestern coast of
Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent.

South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec:
Another area of low pressure could form by the early to middle
portion of next week several hundred miles south of the Gulf of
Tehuantepec. Some slow development of this system is possible
thereafter as it moves slowly west-northwestward, remaining offshore
of the southern coast of Mexico.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent.
* Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

$$
Forecaster Papin

[Kingarabian]

Of course now that the NHC has mentioned it the Euro drops the second system.