ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Iceresistance]

If Bret manages to survive the Caribbean, Bret will either go towards Central America, Towards the GoM, or to Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

Lol, thats saying it could go anywhere haha. I suspect it will fall prey to the graveyard.

I know, too much uncertainty right now.

[Sciencerocks]

I am 95% sure if it remains a tropical cyclone it will likely track into central America or maybe as far north as belize....Ridging looks pretty strong.

Not impossible as we're a long ways off. I'd watch the energy from this system reforming in the eastern pacific as the first or second system of that season.

[underthwx]

If Bret manages to survive the Caribbean, Bret will either go towards Central America, Towards the GoM, or to Florida

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

That about covers it Ice, , sounds like Brets days are numbered?

[GCANE]

Prefect spin on the tower.
Boom boom long time

[GCANE]

59 knts peak flight level @ 850mb

[NDG]

With the NW-SE approach by the Recon the strongest winds will not be found on the first pass, it will be on the second pass.

[NDG]

If they found winds that strong in the NW Quadrant most likely Bret is a 55-60 knot storm right now.

165000 1327N 05315W 8433 01519 0023 +198 +178 066040 044 048 000 00
165030 1325N 05314W 8429 01521 0019 +200 +178 064035 038 052 002 00
165100 1324N 05314W 8429 01520 0013 +206 +178 067029 032 053 001 00
165130 1323N 05313W 8425 01519 0009 +212 +172 071030 031 052 001 00
165200 1321N 05312W 8425 01517 0010 +204 +173 070024 028 047 001 00
165230 1320N 05311W 8430 01511 0007 +208 +172 071021 023 043 001 00
165300 1319N 05310W 8434 01505 0003 +212 +166 075020 021 031 000 00
165330 1318N 05309W 8430 01508 0000 +216 +153 075015 019 025 000 03
165400 1316N 05308W 8426 01510 0001 +210 +157 076012 014 022 000 00
165430 1315N 05307W 8434 01503 0003 +207 +163 103007 010 021 000 00
$$

[NDG]

Not a bad position on satellite with some sustained TS force winds in the SE quadrant.
165700 1307N 05307W 8429 01512 0011 +200 +176 253011 014 028 000 00
165730 1306N 05306W 8426 01517 0017 +192 +180 247019 022 035 001 00
165800 1305N 05305W 8429 01522 0030 +181 //// 229032 037 036 000 01
165830 1304N 05303W 8430 01521 0033 +182 +176 222036 038 033 001 00

[NDG]

Southern quadrant is definitely not weak as we usually see with these systems this time of the year and Barbados could see some sustained TS Force winds if nothing changes.

[GCANE]

Per recon, hot tower on top of the CoC

[NDG]

136
URNT12 KNHC 211737
VORTEX DATA MESSAGE AL032023
A. 21/16:55:20Z
B. 13.21 deg N 053.12 deg W
C. 850 mb 1436 m
D. 1001 mb
E. 200 deg 2 kt
F. NA
G. NA
H. 53 kt
I. 335 deg 13 nm 16:51:00Z
J. 079 deg 59 kt
K. 322 deg 68 nm 16:31:30Z
L. 36 kt
M. 155 deg 7 nm 16:58:00Z
N. 197 deg 42 kt
O. 137 deg 37 nm 17:08:00Z
P. 17 C / 1525 m
Q. 22 C / 1525 m
R. 15 C / NA
S. 12345 / 08
T. 0.02 / 3 nm
U. AF305 0103A BRET OB 06
MAX FL WIND 59 KT 322 / 68 NM 16:31:30Z
;

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

Lots of cumulus forming in the feeder band.
Bret is entraining more moisture.

[Nuno]

Bret looking the best it has looked imo. Really expanding now. Glad we got recon out there.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Looks like they missed the center and are going back a bit to hit it

[cycloneye]

AL, 03, 2023062118, , BEST, 0, 132N, 533W, 55, 1000, TS

[aspen]

Second pass supports 55kt/1000mb, which was the original estimate for 12z before the NHC revised it down, which seemed to be the right call at the time due to Bret’s waning convection a few hours ago.

[abajan]

How have prospects changed for Barbados now??

The center should pass to the north of Barbados early tomorrow afternoon. You won't see much weather until after it passes, as all squalls will be east of the center. Don't expect any sustained TS winds, they'll all be north of the track. You'll get some rain and gusty wind.

Hope you're right. In previous years Barbados has had sustained tropical storm force winds and even occasional hurricane force gusts from feeder bands in the southeast quadrant of tropical cyclones whose centers had already passed well north of the island. Those feeder bands can often pack a punch. Of course, Bret's not a hurricane and not expected to become one, but I'll still be on my guard until its associated bands have passed.

[wxman57]

How have prospects changed for Barbados now??

The center should pass to the north of Barbados early tomorrow afternoon. You won't see much weather until after it passes, as all squalls will be east of the center. Don't expect any sustained TS winds, they'll all be north of the track. You'll get some rain and gusty wind.

Hope you're right. In previous years Barbados has had sustained tropical storm force winds and even occasional hurricane force gusts from feeder bands in the southeast quadrant of tropical cyclones whose centers had already passed well north of the island. Those feeder bands can often pack a punch. Of course, Bret's not a hurricane and not expected to become one, but I'll still be on my guard until it's associated bands have passed.

You will be in that southeast feeder band after it passes. Question is, how much will the dry air affect that feeder band?

[GCANE]

Plenty of overshooting tops

Over the CoC and in the feeder band