ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9155
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#341 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:32 pm

Image
5 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kingarabian
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15980
Joined: Sat Aug 08, 2009 3:06 am
Location: Honolulu, Hawaii

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#342 Postby Kingarabian » Tue Jun 20, 2023 3:53 pm

Depending where you fix the center its very close to T3.5
3 likes   
RIP Kobe Bryant
Top
RT23
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 65
Joined: Thu Sep 07, 2017 2:21 pm

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#343 Postby RT23 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:01 pm

Tropical Storm Watch had been issued for Barbados given uncertainty in track
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#344 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:41 pm

Very rare track for this time of the year.

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1671259973819719680


0 likes   
Top
Chemmers
Tropical Storm
Tropical Storm
Posts: 220
Joined: Wed Jul 22, 2020 6:16 am

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#345 Postby Chemmers » Tue Jun 20, 2023 4:43 pm

Another big hot tower over the centre maybe?, might be stacked now?
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1541
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#346 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:05 pm

Image
:onfire:
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
IsabelaWeather
Category 1
Category 1
Posts: 287
Age: 35
Joined: Tue Jul 07, 2020 7:29 am
Location: Isabela, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#347 Postby IsabelaWeather » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:09 pm

Is Bret taking a decent jog north or is it the way the clouds make it look?
0 likes   
Top
404UserNotFound
Tropical Depression
Tropical Depression
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun Dec 01, 2013 6:21 pm
Location: Near Antipodes of Crozet Islands

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#348 Postby 404UserNotFound » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:27 pm

While not so much now, earlier today, Bret looked like the Pepsi logo!
2 likes   
Please note: Never take any statements I make about forecasts at face value, as I am nowhere near professional at that.
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#349 Postby cheezyWXguy » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:31 pm

IsabelaWeather wrote:Is Bret taking a decent jog north or is it the way the clouds make it look?

Hard to tell exactly, but the general motion is still west. The center will likely get pulled around in different directions as it continues to stack under the deep convection. Clearly strengthening, best it’s looked so far imo
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1541
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#350 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 5:38 pm

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1671284776106602500



Still very slop
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1541
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#351 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 6:54 pm

Image
LLC semi-exposed now
1 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
User avatar
NDG
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 15446
Joined: Sun Jul 09, 2006 10:14 pm
Location: Orlando, FL

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#352 Postby NDG » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:23 pm

Image
3 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145299
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#353 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:29 pm

TXNT28 KNES 210020
TCSNTL

A. 03L (BRET)

B. 20/2330Z

C. 12.9N

D. 49.1W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T3.0/3.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR/SSMIS

H. REMARKS...THE SYSTEM IS CHARACTERIZED BY CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD
LINES, WITH THE CENTER LOCATED LESS THAN 1/2 DEGREE OR 30NM FM A LARGE
CONVECTION.DT IS 3.0 BASED ON SHEAR PATTERN. MET AND PT AGREE. THE FT
IS BASED ON THE DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

20/2153Z 12.9N 49.0W SSMIS


...ZHU
1 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
Sciencerocks
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9155
Age: 39
Joined: Thu Jul 06, 2017 1:51 am

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#354 Postby Sciencerocks » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:37 pm

Image
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cycloneye
Admin
Admin
Posts: 145299
Age: 68
Joined: Thu Oct 10, 2002 10:54 am
Location: San Juan, Puerto Rico

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#355 Postby cycloneye » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:40 pm

Up to 45kt.

AL, 03, 2023062100, , BEST, 0, 124N, 495W, 45, 1003, TS
0 likes   
Visit the Caribbean-Central America Weather Thread where you can find at first post web cams,radars
and observations from Caribbean basin members Click Here
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#356 Postby aspen » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:54 pm


That’s quite a potent mid-level center. If Bret was slower and was allowed to stack, we’d probably be seeing a RI phase similar to what the HWRF had been showing, which would’ve allowed Bret to escape to the north before hitting the islands.

It’s possible that maybe mid-level shear relaxes enough for the LLC and MLC to get a little better aligned for a bit, leading to a peak of 55-70 kt. I don’t see anything higher than a marginal Cat 1 being possible.
2 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
GCANE
S2K Supporter
S2K Supporter
Posts: 11496
Joined: Mon Oct 22, 2007 8:03 am

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#357 Postby GCANE » Tue Jun 20, 2023 7:59 pm

Helicity is very strong with this one.

Pushing shear out of the way.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Looks like its kicking in a poleward outflow channel
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Got that evil twin convective blob indicating a strong feeder band connection - tons of juice ahead to work with.
Expect to see a jumbo shrimp form.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Hypercane_Kyle
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 3352
Joined: Sat Mar 07, 2015 7:58 pm
Location: Cape Canaveral, FL

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#358 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:26 pm

Don't let the convection fool you - sheared at the mid-level causing tilt. LLC is on the tip of the convection and the MLC on the edge.

Climatology is likely prevailing here. My 60 knot prediction is likely to bust.
2 likes   
My posts are my own personal opinion, defer to the National Hurricane Center (NHC) and other NOAA products for decision making during hurricane season.
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1541
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#359 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:38 pm

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1671319047537868806



 https://twitter.com/AndyHazelton/status/1671321042428502021


0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
User avatar
Hurricane2022
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1541
Joined: Tue Aug 23, 2022 11:38 pm
Location: Araçatuba, Brazil

Re: ATL: BRET - Tropical Storm - Discussion

#360 Postby Hurricane2022 » Tue Jun 20, 2023 8:41 pm

Image
Don't be naughty, Mr. Bret :oops:
0 likes   
Sorry for the bad English sometimes...!
For reliable and detailed information for any meteorological phenomenon, please consult the National Hurricane Center, Joint Typhoon Warning Center , or your local Meteo Center.

--------

Una cvm Christo, pro Christo, et in Christo. Sit nomen Domini benedictvm.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2023”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 0 guests