ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[cycloneye]

Center is exposed

[3090]

Center is exposed


https://i.imgur.com/g0ZwYoG.gif

Pretty ragged looking ATM.

[Sciencerocks]

[wxman57]

Look for the NHC to continue to reduce the predicted intensity in their next forecast. Bret is now an exposed swirl. Don't see any threat to the U.S. or BVI. I'm sure it will recover some over the next couple of days, but the east Caribbean environment looks pretty hostile.

[cycloneye]

Stays at 35kt.

AL, 03, 2023062012, , BEST, 0, 117N, 463W, 35, 1008, TS

[Weatherwatcher2018]

Center is exposed


https://i.imgur.com/g0ZwYoG.gif

Do you think it could dissipate before reaching the island chain? The local officials in Barbados aren’t saying much

[cycloneye]

Center is exposed


https://i.imgur.com/g0ZwYoG.gif

Do you think it could dissipate before reaching the island chain? The local officials in Barbados aren’t saying much

Dont think it wiil dissipate by that time but may be weaker than what was forecasted. Let's see how things evolve in the next 2 days.

[NDG]

It will definitely not dissipate, even the weaker Euro shows it staying as TS as it tracks through the Islands, with deep convection pulsating as it tries to catch up with the LLC.

[InfernoFlameCat]

Hot tower fired over the swirl. Let’s see if that helps deepen the pressure and cause greater convergence.

[Chemmers]

A few more hot towers firing be interested if they carry on or if they dissipate

[painkillerr]

New consensus is farther south of NHC track and a lot faster than NHC. TVCN track is now south of Martinique. NHC's track seems to be about 12-18 hrs too slow for reaching the islands. I still think it will weaken considerably as it nears the islands, down to a remnant low south of the DR.

Do you expect an impact for the US and British Virgin Islands?

Very little impact that far north. Very slight increase in easterly trade winds and a few showers. I have a briefing for a client in St. Croix at 8:30am.

Thank you so much! I’ll stay up here then for now unless there is a dramatic change.

[wxman57]

Looks like the NHC is coming around to my line of thinking. Weakening and dissipation in eastern Caribbean by day 5. No more hurricane forecast. Will probably reach Nicaragua next week as a wave. No Gulf threat.

[Chemmers]

Big hot tower over the llc?

[Mouton]

Alex, I'd like to take much ado about nothing for $600.

Seriously, UK met nailed it early on as such. Bastardi said almost the same on Saturday: TS declining to a wave. It may revitalize in ten days or so but at this speed west, I don't think so.

[RT23]

Big hot tower over the llc?

Does look like the COC is tightening up some what after being exposed this morning

[GCANE]

Big hot tower over the llc?

Definitely a convective burst at the least.
Minimal helicity but looks like the shear over the LLC has dissipated.
It is approaching 50W where usually TCs starting picking up Amazon moisture.
See how he does this afternoon and into the night.

[Sciencerocks]

[GCANE]

High CAPE values along the South American coast which will start to entrain into Bret
Very high CAPE values in the Carib
Models have also been bad at forecasting mesoscale convective development.

[GCANE]

Looks like it's staying just below the high shear area and has enough gradient to keep convection firing.
I suspect there will be short-term shear periods where PV streamers develop along the gradient.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

Converging TPW
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... anim=html5

A small PV anomaly over the LLC, but synoptically in a favorable 355K environment.
Any decent updraft from any strong convection should erase the anomaly.
https://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/ ... oom=&time=

[GCANE]

Cloud tops getting colder with the center burst.
The surrounding convection may have contributed to a short term vort that competed with the center vort of Bret.
Synoptic wind patterns aren't really showing any longer-term shear issues.