Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023
...TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORMS OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC...
...INTERESTS IN THE LESSER ANTILLES SHOULD MONITOR THIS SYSTEM...
SUMMARY OF 1100 AM AST...1500 UTC...INFORMATION
-----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...11.0N 40.3W
ABOUT 1425 MI...2295 KM E OF THE SOUTHERN WINDWARD ISLANDS
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 21 MPH...33 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1009 MB...29.80 INCHES
TROPICAL DEPRESSION THREE FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 1
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL032023
1500 UTC MON JUN 19 2023
NOTICE... LAND-BASED TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCHES AND WARNINGS ARE NO
LONGER INCLUDED IN THE TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST/ADVISORY...(TCM).
CURRENT LAND-BASED COASTAL WATCHES AND WARNINGS CAN BE FOUND IN THE
MOST RECENTLY ISSUED TROPICAL CYCLONE PUBLIC ADVISORY...(TCP).
TROPICAL DEPRESSION CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 45 NM
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 18 KT
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 1009 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 30 KT WITH GUSTS TO 40 KT.
12 FT SEAS.. 60NE 0SE 0SW 60NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 11.0N 40.3W AT 19/1500Z
AT 19/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 10.7N 39.3W
FORECAST VALID 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W
MAX WIND 40 KT...GUSTS 50 KT.
34 KT... 40NE 0SE 0SW 30NW.
FORECAST VALID 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W
MAX WIND 45 KT...GUSTS 55 KT.
34 KT... 60NE 0SE 0SW 50NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W
MAX WIND 55 KT...GUSTS 65 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 0SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 80NE 30SE 20SW 70NW.
FORECAST VALID 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W
MAX WIND 60 KT...GUSTS 75 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 0SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 40SE 30SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
50 KT... 30NE 20SE 10SW 20NW.
34 KT... 90NE 50SE 40SW 80NW.
FORECAST VALID 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
50 KT... 40NE 30SE 20SW 30NW.
34 KT...100NE 60SE 50SW 90NW.
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 125 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY
OUTLOOK VALID 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W
MAX WIND 70 KT...GUSTS 85 KT.
OUTLOOK VALID 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W
MAX WIND 65 KT...GUSTS 80 KT.
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 11.0N 40.3W
NEXT ADVISORY AT 19/2100Z
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/KELLY
Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032023
1100 AM AST Mon Jun 19 2023
Satellite images indicate that the tropical wave over the central
Atlantic has become better organized this morning. GOES-16 1-min
visible imagery shows that the center has become well defined near
a developing central dense overcast with prominent convective
banding in the northern semicircle. The initial intensity is set to
30 kt, based on Dvorak estimates from SAB and TAFB, and recent
satellite trends indicate this system is close to tropical-storm
status.
The initial motion estimate is 275/18 kt, a bit uncertain because
the center has just recently become trackable. A large ridge of
high pressure over the central Atlantic Ocean is forecast to cause
the depression to move westward over the next several days. As the
system nears the Lesser Antilles late this week, the ridge should
weaken, causing the system to move more toward the west-northwest.
However, there is considerable uncertainty in how much of a right
turn could occur because it is somewhat tied to the intensity of the
cyclone. A stronger system would tend to move more to the right due
to the upper-level flow, while a weaker system would continue more
westward into the Caribbean. For now, this forecast lies near the
model consensus, and adjustments are likely in future advisories.
This should be considered a low confidence track forecast since
this type of forecast situation can result in large errors.
Environmental conditions appear conducive for strengthening over
the next few days, with a much warmer than normal ocean in the
depression's path, along with plentiful mid-level moisture and
light shear. This should promote strengthening through midweek.
However, vertical wind shear is forecast to increase by most of the
model guidance around day 3 in response to an upper-level trough.
Thus the NHC forecast shows the intensity leveling off at the end
of the forecast, consistent with the middle of the guidance
envelope. This intensity forecast is also more uncertain than
normal, due to the differences in the model suite, along with the
aclimatological nature of this system.
KEY MESSAGES:
1. The depression is forecast to strengthen and move across the
Lesser Antilles as a hurricane on Thursday and Friday, bringing a
risk of flooding from heavy rainfall, hurricane-force winds, and
dangerous storm surge and waves.
2. Given the larger than usual uncertainty in the track forecast,
it is too early to specify the location and magnitude of where
these hazards could occur. However, everyone in the Lesser
Antilles, Puerto Rico, and the Virgin Islands should closely monitor
updates to the forecast for this system and have their hurricane
plan in place.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 19/1500Z 11.0N 40.3W 30 KT 35 MPH
12H 20/0000Z 11.2N 42.9W 40 KT 45 MPH
24H 20/1200Z 11.7N 45.9W 45 KT 50 MPH
36H 21/0000Z 12.2N 48.6W 55 KT 65 MPH
48H 21/1200Z 12.8N 51.2W 60 KT 70 MPH
60H 22/0000Z 13.3N 53.9W 65 KT 75 MPH
72H 22/1200Z 13.8N 56.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 23/1200Z 14.9N 61.5W 70 KT 80 MPH
120H 24/1200Z 16.5N 66.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
$$
Forecaster Blake/Kelly