ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[AnnularCane]

Bret 2017's record falls to... Bret 2023!

Bret 2017 also followed Bret 1993 in track and area affected too. These names like to outdo each other.

Interesting how some storms have been quite similar to others of the same name.

[cheezyWXguy]

info
ttps://hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Hebert_boxes.jpg

time will tell

Seasonal reminder that the Hebert boxes are a retrospective analysis tool, not a forecasting tool. Hebert boxes show that a large percentage of storms that have hit Florida crossed through the boxes, but a large percentage of storms that move through a Hebert box do not end up going to Florida.

[facemane]

info
ttps://hurricanecity.com/hebertbox.htm


https://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/a/a7/Hebert_boxes.jpg

time will tell

Seasonal reminder that the Hebert boxes are a retrospective analysis tool, not a forecasting tool. Hebert boxes show that a large percentage of storms that have hit Florida crossed through the boxes, but a large percentage of storms that move through a Hebert box do not end up going to Florida.

Yes, keep in mind two of the worst hurricanes in south Florida's history did not pass through Herbert's boxes. Those were the 1935 Labor Day hurricane
and hurricane Andrew.

[Sciencerocks]

[AtlanticWind]

Bret 2017's record falls to... Bret 2023!

Bret 2017 also followed Bret 1993 in track and area affected too. These names like to outdo each other.

Interesting how some storms have been quite similar to others of the same name.

If they had named the earlier season subtropical storm that was determined in post analysis
this would be Cindy.

[GeauxTigers]

12Z GFS is finally coming around. Weakening TS enters the Caribbean then weakens to a depression or remnant low south of PR in about 5 days. Someone asked about Barbados - you won't see much out of it. A little rain and little wind south of the track. Wind will be about 20 mph less on the south side of the storm.

I’m flying to St John Wednesday. What can i expect out of this? Thank u!

Perhaps east wind 25-35 mph as it passes well to the south Thursday afternoon. Maybe 3-6 inches of rain, depending on what side of the island. We have it passing over Martinique around 4pm AST Thursday. Way faster than the GFS.

Thank you so much for taking the time to answer my personal travel question. We will be on the west side of island nearI Cruz Bay. I can deal with a day of rain & wind with no real danger, then hopefully enjoy sunshine rest of trip. Ya’ll are so knowledgeable on here and i respect ya’lls viewpoints. Thanks again & i will continue to keep an eye on this, but hope it stays far south.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I think a 60 knot peak for Bret, followed by a sheared-sheep death in the Eastern Caribbean, is the most likely outcome IMHO.

[AtlanticWind]

I think a 60 knot peak for Bret, followed by a sheared-sheep death in the Eastern Caribbean, is the most likely outcome IMHO.

I posted yesterday I thought 60 to 70 knots was the likely peak so I agree
The demise in the eastern carribean is likely but not written in stone yet
as this is still 120 + out and a lot could still change.

[CrazyC83]

I think a 60 knot peak for Bret, followed by a sheared-sheep death in the Eastern Caribbean, is the most likely outcome IMHO.

I think Bret needs to do some RI'ing in the next 48 hours to have a long life. That would enable it to turn out into the central Atlantic and then it's rounding the ridge. However, that probably only happens if Bret becomes at least a category 2 or so (i.e., below 980 mb).

[Sciencerocks]

 https://twitter.com/philklotzbach/status/1670899746456875009

[cane5]

Absolutely the strangest year I can remember. This is the second storm pre aug/sept coming off or near the cape Verdes. Normally at this time they start near the Yucatán and are strictly Gulf events. Because of this there is little to go by historically. Brett was a sea storm yesterday he’s knocking on the caribbean doorstep.

Best you can figure if flows are weak and the high pressure ridge continues strong we must track Brett very closely. Those two things look promising at the moment.

[wxman57]

Agreed. I respect the folks at the NHC but I'm not sure what they're doing here.

NHC folks are demonstrating an abundance of caution. They don't want anyone in the islands to ignore this potential storm.

This is looking like it will go south of St Maarten. Like maybe close to Martinique or St Lucia. Would you agree, @wxman57?

Yes, Martinique looks most likely. Well to your south.

[JetFuel_SE]

I wonder if the 1780 St. Lucia Hurricane was something like this.

[Hurricane Mike]

I think a 60 knot peak for Bret, followed by a sheared-sheep death in the Eastern Caribbean, is the most likely outcome IMHO.

I remember Claudette in early July of 2003. Developed into a strong TS/minimal Cat 1, quickly died in the Eastern and Central Caribbean, but found it's way back in the Western Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico and struck Texas as a 90 mph hurricane.

I always am wary of systems like Bret because even if it "dies" in the Eastern Caribbean, that doesn't preclude it returning and striking land further west as a stronger system down the road.

[WilmingtonSandbar]

I know the conditions are not the same, but I am reminded of Bertha in 96, that formed in roughly the same spot just a few weeks later than Bret, on July 5.

[KatDaddy]

August sure got here quick with a hello from Bret. Kidding aside, there is lots of heat out there in the tropical Atlantic. It will also be interesting to see what develops in the GOM this season.

[St0rmTh0r]

looking at the current structure of this storm before sunset, it looks like its about to get very strong well before it gets close to any islands. dont think enough is being said on how abnormal this is and truly a harbinger of whats coming.

[AdamFirst]

This storm looks very impressive so far. Climatology be damned. Definitely keep your eyes peeled in the Antilles for this one.

[InfernoFlameCat]

The 2nd most damaging storm died in the Caribbean. Harvey made a massive comeback. Never count them out.

[Kingarabian]

Appears that a small CDO is forming: