ATL: BRET - Remnants - Discussion

[Deshaunrob17]

There's no need to rush since land is not immediately threatened, although a solid case could be made that it is a TD or TS.

This should not be one of the criteria for upgrading a system to a TD or TS. We want accurate records of the histories of systems. If it's a TD or TS, then that's what it is, regardless of it's proximity to populated lands.

This is how it should be.

Yeah but that’s not how it is and nothing we could really do because resources not there. If it posed a threat to land in less than 2 days, hurricane hunters would be there . The only way not to know if it’s a cyclone or not , it’s through an ascat or scatterometer pass

[tolakram]

This should not be one of the criteria for upgrading a system to a TD or TS. We want accurate records of the histories of systems. If it's a TD or TS, then that's what it is, regardless of it's proximity to populated lands.

This is how it should be.

Yeah but that’s not how it is and nothing we could really do because resources not there. If it posed a threat to land in less than 2 days, hurricane hunters would be there . The only way not to know if it’s a cyclone or not , it’s through an ascat or scatterometer pass

That IS how it works, but it's not important during the season, this is why there's re-analysis. If this was closer to land I'm pretty certain the PTC designation would have been used.

[chaser1]

oh jeesh....... 92L may well be the earliest straight upgrade from TD to TS that I recall. This looks to be getting it's act together big-time

[sponger]

Welcome back weather fans. Hard to believe we are discussing a long tracker in June with an El Nino in place. I suspect we are going to have a long active season that beats expectations. Good luck to all, we are going to need it.

[cycloneye]

AL, 92, 2023061912, , BEST, 0, 107N, 393W, 30, 1009, LO

[NDG]

Hopefully ASCAT catches it this morning to see if it is has a well defined closed circulation yet.

[GeauxTigers]

Good morning, everyone. I realize no one can predict exact path but what spaghetti string path do you think it most likely will take. We fly out Wednesday headed to St John and I’m a little worried not only for hazardous weather, but entire vacation being a wash out. Hoping this thing turns north back into Atlantic and misses island. Thanks

[Beef Stew]

Good morning, everyone. I realize no one can predict exact path but what spaghetti string path do you think it most likely will take. We fly out Wednesday headed to St John and I’m a little worried not only for hazardous weather, but entire vacation being a wash out. Hoping this thing turns north back into Atlantic and misses island. Thanks

While it's impossible to say now, model guidance seems to be trending towards at least some interaction with the lesser Antilles, although the exact area, and strength, are still very uncertain. Once we have an actual system for the models to initialize with, we should begin to get a better idea of were 92L is heading.

[GeauxTigers]

Good morning, everyone. I realize no one can predict exact path but what spaghetti string path do you think it most likely will take. We fly out Wednesday headed to St John and I’m a little worried not only for hazardous weather, but entire vacation being a wash out. Hoping this thing turns north back into Atlantic and misses island. Thanks

While it's impossible to say now, model guidance seems to be trending towards at least some interaction with the lesser Antilles, although the exact area, and strength, are still very uncertain. Once we have an actual system for the models to initialize with, we should begin to get a better idea of were 92L is heading.

Thanks so much! Will definitely be checking back and getting ya’lls informed opinions!

[NDG]

Welcome back weather fans. Hard to believe we are discussing a long tracker in June with an El Nino in place. I suspect we are going to have a long active season that beats expectations. Good luck to all, we are going to need it.

Not all ENSO events have the same effects on the Atlantic every time, like I have been saying.
Great example was last year, despite a La Nina the EPAC beat expectations while the Atlantic had a below average ACE.

[JetFuel_SE]

Hopefully ASCAT catches it this morning to see if it is has a well defined closed circulation yet.

HY-2B caught this tho

[zzzh]

Of course it misses again.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

If it's not TD#3 yet, it's really close.

[sponger]

Sure looks like a closed circulation to me.

[Sciencerocks]

[RT23]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5706/Vwsr2e.gif

looks like we may have our first named one for the season a bit sooner

[tolakram]

Floater over 92 now.

COD: https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=m ... =undefined

SLIDER: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... aw_width=6

[toad strangler]

https://imagizer.imageshack.com/img924/5706/Vwsr2e.gif

THAT looks rather healthy. Really wonder what is under the hood.

[zzzh]

AL032023 - Tropical Depression THREE

[Hypercane_Kyle]

AL032023 - Tropical Depression THREE

And there's the upgrade. I'm definitely curious to see how strong they go. My bet is they will go slightly below the IVCN and hold at 60 knots for hours 60-120.

 https://twitter.com/NHC_Atlantic/status/1670796972398198785