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If GFS/EURO are correct the Atlantic MDR will have a solid Cat 1/2 by @55W next week. Moving into uncharted hurricane history.
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USTropics wrote:LarryWx wrote:zzzh wrote::uarrow: Elsa became a TS on July 1.
Thanks for the correction. I saw a track map at the link below with it suggesting to me that it reached TS intensity as of 0Z on July 1st, which would have still been late evening June 30th in its location. However, after your correction, I saw the advisories, which didn't have it upgraded til 5AM AST/09Z on July 1st. So, not Elsa during June.
Track:
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-2021.png
1979 had Ana become a TS on 06/22 at 00z:
https://i.imgur.com/I1zpSr1.png
Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PJ9VKDJS/6-F8-EB423-4-B61-49-A5-A3-A4-F9-A2-F4-EE1-CF8.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.
AnnularCane wrote:Blown Away wrote:[url]https://i.postimg.cc/PJ9VKDJS/6-F8-EB423-4-B61-49-A5-A3-A4-F9-A2-F4-EE1-CF8.jpg [/url]
12z GEFS have strong system turns N, still wants to develop that W Caribbean low that likely erodes W edge of HP helping turn the Atlantic system N. Interesting many don’t show hard recurve and go N into high latitudes.
Is it me or does that map look awfully "busy" for the end of June?
Emmett_Brown wrote:Models want to develop this quickly, perhaps if development is delayed a bit, model tracks might shift a bit closer to the islands in future runs. The 12Z Euro shifted west a bit.
USTropics wrote:Hypercane_Kyle wrote:Of note, while early season development is not usually a sign of an active season, early season MDR development -- especially if this becomes a hurricane -- almost always is a sign.
Hurricane Bertha in 2008 is the closest analog I can think of right now.
Seasons that had a storm form east of the Caribbean and below 20N in the months of June/July:Code: Select all
YEAR ACE
2021 145.7
2020 179.8
2018 132.6
2017 224.9
2013 36.1
2008 145.7
2005 245.3
1998 181.8
1996 166.2
1995 227.1
1990 96.8
1989 135.1
1979 92.9
1969 165.7
1966 145.2
1964 153
1963 112.1
1961 188.9
1933 258.6
1926 229.6
1916 144
1901 99
1887 181.3
AVG ACE 160.3217391
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