Texas Summer 2023

[HockeyTx82]

Despite extreme CAPE and a SCP pushing 20, the only cell west of DFW has now died. Looks like the cells to the SW will miss DFW to the South, and the HRRR is consistently showing the storms in OK missing DFW to the NE. Looks like another non-event for DFW. Maybe we will get some rain on Saturday, lol

As soon as they went enhanced we should have known better.

Will those storms miss Denton city but maybe NE Denton County?

[WacoWx]

That supercell in southern OK is an absolute monster.

[WacoWx]

There’s a donut shaped velocity return right in the middle of that huge mass.

[ElectricStorm]

Despite extreme CAPE and a SCP pushing 20, the only cell west of DFW has now died. Looks like the cells to the SW will miss DFW to the South, and the HRRR is consistently showing the storms in OK missing DFW to the NE. Looks like another non-event for DFW. Maybe we will get some rain on Saturday, lol

As soon as they went enhanced we should have known better.

Will those storms miss Denton city but maybe NE Denton County?

Looks like SPC thinks more storms will develop down there.

Mesoscale Discussion 1084
NWS Storm Prediction Center Norman OK
0533 PM CDT Thu Jun 15 2023

Areas affected...central and North Texas

Concerning...Tornado Watch 309...

Valid 152233Z - 160000Z

The severe weather threat for Tornado Watch 309 continues.

SUMMARY...Additional storm development/intensification is likely
through the remainder of the afternoon into this evening with
organizing supercells. Tornadoes, large to giant hail and damaging
winds remain possible.

DISCUSSION...Across portions of central and North TX, strong to
severe storms were observed maturing east of a dryline. Additional
development/intensification into the evening appears likely owing to
extreme buoyancy (5000 J/kg of MLCAPE) aided by an abnormally strong
EML and mid to upper 70s F dewpoints. 60 kt of effective shear
observed from area VADs will continue to support a predominately
supercell mode with the primary threat of large to giant hail. While
initially weak, especially with southern extent, low-level shear
should intensify this evening as the low-level jet increases. This
may also aid in some upscale growth of ongoing storms, and some
expansion of additional storms moving south across the Red River
from OK. Should this occur, a locally greater risk for damaging
winds may develop, especially across the northeastern portions of
WW309 toward the DFW metroplex later this evening.

..Lyons.. 06/15/2023

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/weathernation/status/1669479783468761088

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/erikfox2000/status/1669479554283368457

[ElectricStorm]

Big time meso just east of Loco, OK. Springer and Ardmore need to watch out

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/collinmyerswx/status/1669484620440649728

[bubba hotep]

https://twitter.com/collinmyerswx/status/1669484620440649728?s=46&t=-5lM_vdlE9nb5DLG3wNfmg

That cell is already about 45 miles SW of where the 22z HRRR thinks it will be at 00z.

[rwfromkansas]

A co-worker taught in Perryton the past few years and just moved back. That is awful.

[bubba hotep]

Cell refuses to cross the River

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/stormchaserQ/status/1669495085652758529

[bubba hotep]

Lightning has really picked up with that cell, and it just blasted a new overshooting top. Might be about to produce. Also, that little trailing cell that has kind of been pulsing in intensity has really taken on an interesting look in the last bit.

[bubba hotep]

 https://twitter.com/invertv_dcape/status/1669503010526101504

[bubba hotep]

That cell is tracking pretty close to eventually being a problem for the more densely populated portions of Collin County.

[bubba hotep]

This is the smaller cell that has been trailing the monster cell.

[HockeyTx82]

This is the smaller cell that has been trailing the monster cell.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FytLD5EaQAAyCGt?format=jpg&name=small

I'm not liking that track....

[bubba hotep]

This is the smaller cell that has been trailing the monster cell.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FytLD5EaQAAyCGt?format=jpg&name=small

I'm not liking that track....

It's starting to make the turn and is really growing in size. I think DFW might have some issues later.

[HockeyTx82]

This is the smaller cell that has been trailing the monster cell.

https://pbs.twimg.com/media/FytLD5EaQAAyCGt?format=jpg&name=small

I'm not liking that track....

It's starting to make the turn and is really growing in size. I think DFW might have some issues later.

It looks to be going east but I might get spared here in Ponder, maybe.

[ElectricStorm]

Tor watch in OK has been replaced with a severe thunderstorm watch. Just a few miles outside of it here