Texas Summer 2023

[HockeyTx82]

Is that the front on radar just south of Mansfield?

What impact if any would that have on potential storm placement and development?

I'm at the Rangers game tonight, hope the only baseball size objects we see are the balls the Rangers hit.


Edit, HRRR looks like most development is just South and East of DFW proper. I guess the boxes cover if the front meanders north?

[South Texas Storms]

Is that the front on radar just south of Mansfield?

What impact if any would that have on potential storm placement and development?

I'm at the Rangers game tonight, hope the only baseball size objects we see are the balls the Rangers hit.


Edit, HRRR looks like most development is just South and East of DFW proper. I guess the boxes cover if the front meanders north?

That's an outflow boundary. The Severe Watch includes DFW to account for any potential left splitting supercells that could form. Even the NWS is calling for that threat to be low (20% or less) this evening.

[cstrunk]

Here we go, DFW area. Severe storm warned for ping pongs near Midlothian and another just went severe with quarters just east of Terrell.

[Texas Snowman]

 https://twitter.com/billkarins/status/1669108599019192324

[cstrunk]

Tornado warning on the eastern storm near Canton, TX.

[Cpv17]

Pretty big expansion of the Day 2 Slight down into Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

I thought by now y’all were supposed to be in the frying pan like us?

Today is the last relatively cool day for north TX. 90s return tomorrow with near 100 likely this weekend through much of next week.

I’m definitely not complaining but temps haven’t been anywhere near forecasted highs here all week. Highest its been was 92°F.

[Quixotic]

This morning was a first: woke up with condensation on all the windows. DPs were in the upper 70s and well, at night we set the AC at 68. Only time I’ve seen this is on vacation in tropical countries.

[gpsnowman]

This morning was a first: woke up with condensation on all the windows. DPs were in the upper 70s and well, at night we set the AC at 68. Only time I’ve seen this is on vacation in tropical countries.

I will be in Pittsburgh Monday-Thursday. Checked the weather there and it looks to be in the 70s and 80s with some rain chances with lows in lower 60s. Going to a couple Pirates games so I hope the rain holds off. PNC Ballpark is one of the most beautiful parks in the league so I am excited.

[HockeyTx82]

Is that the front on radar just south of Mansfield?

What impact if any would that have on potential storm placement and development?

I'm at the Rangers game tonight, hope the only baseball size objects we see are the balls the Rangers hit.


Edit, HRRR looks like most development is just South and East of DFW proper. I guess the boxes cover if the front meanders north?

That's an outflow boundary. The Severe Watch includes DFW to account for any potential left splitting supercells that could form. Even the NWS is calling for that threat to be low (20% or less) this evening.

Thanks for the reply earlier. Got to the ball park and saw warnings going up just south of us.

Hopefully minimal damage, but this pattern needs to break. I'll take heat over hail.

[ElectricStorm]

Pretty concerned about tomorrow, especially in western and central OK. Recent HRRR and especially RRFS runs are showing pretty significant event. SPC outlook will be out soon, and I'll be surprised if they don't upgrade to enhanced. Could honestly be potential for a moderate on future outlooks imo. Pretty big potential for June. Kinda wish I was back in Norman for this one lol

[ElectricStorm]

Or just go ahead and bring out the moderate now

[HockeyTx82]

Or just go ahead and bring out the moderate now

You can play with fire so many times before you get burned.

Seriously, this week alone may push insurance over the ledge for pricing increases or dropping coverage all together.

[bubba hotep]

12z guidance is running with the HRRR up first. If these trends continue then I wouldn't be surprised to see the ENH/MOD extended down to include DFW

[rwfromkansas]

Or just go ahead and bring out the moderate now

You can play with fire so many times before you get burned.

Seriously, this week alone may push insurance over the ledge for pricing increases or dropping coverage all together.

Ours was $1200 last year. This year they wanted $2800, so I switched.

But still paying $2100.

This hail will make it worse.

[bubba hotep]

12z guidance is running with the HRRR up first. If these trends continue then I wouldn't be surprised to see the ENH/MOD extended down to include DFW

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023061512/015/uh03_max.us_sc.png

Wow, one of the crazier 3k NAM runs that I have seen. If verified, probably big trouble for DFW

[HockeyTx82]

12z guidance is running with the HRRR up first. If these trends continue then I wouldn't be surprised to see the ENH/MOD extended down to include DFW

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023061512/015/uh03_max.us_sc.png

Wow, one of the crazier 3k NAM runs that I have seen. If verified, probably big trouble for DFW

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2023061512/016/uh25_max.us_sc.png

Is that more of a hail threat and or tornado threat?

This week will just not end......

[bubba hotep]

12z guidance is running with the HRRR up first. If these trends continue then I wouldn't be surprised to see the ENH/MOD extended down to include DFW

https://m2o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/hrrr/2023061512/015/uh03_max.us_sc.png

Wow, one of the crazier 3k NAM runs that I have seen. If verified, probably big trouble for DFW

https://m1o.pivotalweather.com/maps/models/nam4km/2023061512/016/uh25_max.us_sc.png

Is that more of a hail threat and or tornado threat?

This week will just not end......

Given the setup, I would guess hail, but really all the UH tracks show are the tracks of rotating updrafts. So really just a proxy for svr wx.

[cstrunk]

The last few runs of the HRRR have been very consistent with what looks like significant storms for NC/NE TX this evening... including the same areas that have been under the gun all week long. NC TX from DFW north gets included this time.

[Quixotic]

AFD mentioned the Jarrell tornado resulted from conditions that were similar to today: extreme CAPE.

[cstrunk]

Looks like the new SPC Outlook has extended the moderate/enhanced risk areas SE to cover the increasing N TX risk...