Texas Summer 2023

[Iceresistance]

5.5 inch Hail reported in Lela, TX last night

[Ntxw]

According the forecasts last week, we were supposed to be 3 days into the 100°+ stretch right now, so I am considering everyday below 100° now as a win. Lets hope it continues to remain stagnant.

The 00z Euro EPS backed off the heat for NTX some and is now only showing two days above 100F for DFW and, IMHO, it has a warm bias. It also shows rain chances returning as the ridge retrogrades towards the Baja. Would make sense with increasing signs of +ENSO. Unfortunately, it only helps us living up here on the northern periphery of the ridge, and Central and South Texas still get roasted.

By the way, what happened to the overnight storms that were in the forecast

It's definitely been a tricky forecast especially within the northern fringes. It's battle with a weakness along and N of I20 and ridge poking from Mexico. We've been influenced more on the weakness/trof side. Ridge may poke a little further north but not sprawling in any forecast I've seen. More typical of summer solstice heat run.

Nothing like summer of 2022.

[Iceresistance]

0z Runs on the Center of the Heat Dome track, Orange is ICON, Green is GFS, Red is Euro, and Blue is CMC.

Darker colors (Except the ICON) are the Ensembles, and the lighter colors are the OP runs.


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SQbq2.png

[bubba hotep]

[rwfromkansas]

Well that was odd. Wonder went wrong, not that I want huge hail.

[HockeyTx82]

Aside from it being muggy looks like a Fall day here in Ponder and Denton as I drive around......

[cstrunk]

Lather, rinse, repeat. Greatest chance of storms in Texas is NE of Dallas towards the Ark-la-tex. More conditional threat in the other risk areas. My location seems to continue being split by the severe weather, with storms north of me heading east or northeast, with storms to the west continually diving southeast. Anything headed towards Longview tends to die out by the time it gets here. Nothing wrong with that... but interesting to watch it play out over the last few days.

[Iceresistance]

No


https://s12.gifyu.com/images/SQbgl.png

[bubba hotep]

Nasty supercell up along the Red River this morning.

[bubba hotep]

Pretty big expansion of the Day 2 Slight down into Texas

[Cpv17]

Pretty big expansion of the Day 2 Slight down into Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

I thought by now y’all were supposed to be in the frying pan like us?

[cstrunk]

Radar confirmed tornado about 7 miles north of Atlanta, TX about an hour ago. Also looks like really strong straight line winds went through that area.

[Brent]

Pretty big expansion of the Day 2 Slight down into Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

I thought by now y’all were supposed to be in the frying pan like us?

Totally backed off up here. We've already hit 94 last week and nothing above that forecast anymore

I can remember last June having nights not get below 85

[Rgv20]

I'm used to the Heat but damn the humidity has been unreal this past few days. My personal weather station is currently showing 102 with a dew point of 79 for a 123 heat index...

FXUS64 KBRO 141955
AFDBRO

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Brownsville TX
255 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Thursday night)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Short Term Highlights:
- Life-threatening heat continues
- Breezy to windy south-southeasterly winds (even overnight)
- Haze (especially near the coast)
- Dangerous currents at the beach

The main concern for the short term period continues to be the
life- threatening heat that`s expected to continue for the
foreseeable future, thanks to the mid level ridge that`s building
over Deep South Texas and elevated surface dew points. Heat
indices exceeded 100F by 9 AM this morning, and have begun to
verify our Heat Advisory by early this afternoon with 111F+ across
a good portion of Deep South Texas. While some wispy cirrus
clouds will periodically help to block out a little bit of the
solar radiation, they will likely only put a slight dent in the
temperatures...but dew points are looking slightly drier than
yesterday as the heat helps to dry some of soil moisture...so the
combination of these two factors will help to keep heat indices
slightly lower than yesterday. With that in mind and the current
trend in temperatures and dew points for today, the Heat Advisory
in effect until 8 PM should be sufficient...but dew points seem to
be bouncing around this afternoon, with McAllen jumping between
108F and 120F in the last hour or two...so we`ll continue to
monitor for the potential need to upgrade to an Excessive Heat
Warning for a few hours this afternoon.

Tonight, winds will remain elevated and heat indices are likely
to only drop to around 90F like we saw last night...not much of a
break from the heat. And haze could return...

Satellite imagery and Total Aerosol Optical Thickness (AOT)
models show smoke from fires in Mexico continuing to stream into
Deep South Texas through the short term. This uptick in AOT and
high relative humidity values (especially overnight into the
morning hours) will likely keep the haze around through the short
term period. The haze will likely be densest along the coast where
cooler water temperatures from upwelling will help to keep the
relative humidity elevated. This also means that the air quality
will be reduced as well.

Thursday`s ambient temperatures will exceed today`s as the ridge
continues to build overhead. However, with lower confidence in the
dew points, tomorrow`s heat indices are a bit a tricky. Decided
to keep the Excessive Heat Watch in effect and issued a Heat
Advisory for the remaining counties (except for the barrier
island). Upgrades to Excessive Warnings may be needed.

Finally, in addition to the haze and the heat, beachgoers may be
impacted by dangerous currents in the surf zone at the beach. Wave
heights have increased due to the persistent moderate to fresh
south to southeasterly winds, increasing the risk of rip currents
and strengthening the south-to-north longshore current. If
venturing into the water to escape the heat, be sure to swim at
beaches with lifeguards on duty and know what to do if you get
caught in a rip current. If in doubt about the conditions, ask a
lifeguard.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday through next Wednesday)
Issued at 236 PM CDT Wed Jun 14 2023

Hot, dry weather will continue. A 500mb ridge over northern
Mexico will build over deep South Texas by the weekend and will
remain anchored over the region into next week. At the surface,
broad high pressure will continue across the Gulf of Mexico,
supporting at least an onshore breeze. As the mid-level ridge
builds and the overnight heat continues, daytime temperatures will
increase to near record values through the remainder of the long
term period.

Mid to upper 90s will be common along the coast, with the mercury
quickly reaching the century mark just inland and soaring to
sizzling 105 to 110 values as soon as the US 281/I-69C corridor.
Afternoon high temperature readings of 110 to 115 degrees will be
possible for the Upper Valley to RGV Plains. Overnight low
temperatures will only decrease to the 70s near the coast to
around 80 degrees along the Rio Grande each night. The combination
of very hot weather and elevated dewpoints will support heat
index values in the heat advisory range of 111-115 degrees with
locally higher values every afternoon, driving heat advisory
conditions through the period, and even potential excessive heat
warnings.

Fire weather may become more of an issue over the weekend or into
early next week, with RH values along and west of US 281 dropping
below 30 percent and potentially into the teens across Zapata
County, with 20 foot winds becoming breezy each afternoon. Most
areas will probably not reach fire weather criteria, but current
guidance leans towards Fire Danger Statements potentially Saturday
through Monday.

[cstrunk]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1046.html

Afternoon/evening severe threat increasing for NC/NE Texas. A watch is likely coming (80%). Giant hail and severe wind are the main threats.

[rwfromkansas]

Is Pivotal Weather crawling for others? It's loading images like I have 56k on my laptop. And I have Gigabit internet. TT is loading fast.

[bubba hotep]

Here we go again, 3rd watch in 24 hrs lol

[South Texas Storms]

Pretty big expansion of the Day 2 Slight down into Texas

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/public/state/images/TX_swody2.png

I thought by now y’all were supposed to be in the frying pan like us?

Today is the last relatively cool day for north TX. 90s return tomorrow with near 100 likely this weekend through much of next week.

[bubba hotep]

https://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/md/md1046.html

Afternoon/evening severe threat increasing for NC/NE Texas. A watch is likely coming (80%). Giant hail and severe wind are the main threats.

Extreme buoyancy and strong vertical shear will likely support splitting
supercells with a risk for large to giant hail and damaging winds.

[funster]

Biggy hail up to 4 inches :-O that would hurt. Persistent giant hail threat this week.